Story Archive
- Pittsburgh's Crease Was Minus-15 Without Stuart Skinner. It Let Him Walk Anyway.
Pittsburgh's goaltending was average last season only because Stuart Skinner's plus-8.3 cancelled out Arturs Silovs' minus-11.9. Skinner signed in Winnipeg on July 1. The Penguins go into 2026-27 with Silovs and a 22-year-old, an old core, and 98 points that rested on 20 goals of finishing luck. The numbers on what that costs.
- Columbus Swapped Its Captain for Valeri Nichushkin. The Numbers Approve.
Columbus was a 52 percent team with almost no luck either way, 92 points and out of the playoffs. It let its captain Boone Jenner and Mason Marchment walk and paid a second, a third and a fifth for Valeri Nichushkin, a 59 percent play-driver whose price was set by a 10.6 percent shooting year. The trade is right. The summer is not finished until Jet Greaves and Adam Fantilli are signed.
- Seattle Got Samoskevich Right and McMann Wrong, in the Same Summer.
Seattle generated chances at the worst rate in the NHL last season. In one summer it paid a late first and a second for Mackie Samoskevich, a 59 percent play-driver who shot 7.5 percent, and gave six years at $5.75 million to Bobby McMann, a 45 percent winger who shot 15.8. The numbers say it got one of those exactly right.
- Anaheim Paid Leo Carlsson $18 Million and Sold the Blue Line to Do It.
Anaheim was the third-best chance-creating team in the NHL last season and one of the three unluckiest. Then it matched an $18 million offer sheet for Leo Carlsson, paid Mintyukov $7.2 million, and moved four of its top six defencemen, plus McTavish, to make the cap work. The chances were real. The blue line that produced them is gone.
- Boston Was the Luckiest Team in Hockey. Then It Bought JJ Peterka.
Boston was a 47 percent team at 5-on-5, 20th in chances created and 28th in chances allowed, and won 100 points on 51 goals of finishing and goaltending luck, the most in the NHL by twelve. Its summer answer was two first-round picks for JJ Peterka, a 25-goal winger who replaces the 25-goal winger it let walk.
- Edmonton Created More Chances Than Every Team in the West but Colorado and Anaheim. It Lost 18 Goals in Its Own Net. Its Fix Is Tristan Jarry, a 37-Year-Old Frederik Andersen and a Goalie Buffalo Gave Up On.
The Oilers were a 52 percent team at 5-on-5, fourth in the NHL in chances, and were outscored by 13 because their goaltending was 18 goals below expected. They traded the goalie who finished plus-8, let the one who finished plus-2 walk, and go into 2026-27 with Tristan Jarry (minus-4, four straight years of decline), a 37-year-old Frederik Andersen off an .874, and Devon Levi.
- Logan Thompson Saved More Goals Than Any Goalie in the NHL and Washington Still Missed the Playoffs. The Answer Was $84 Million for a Winger.
Washington missed the playoffs by three points with Logan Thompson saving 29 goals above expected, the best in the league, in front of a defence that allowed chances at the 25th-best rate. It spent the summer on wingers: $84 million through 2034 for Alex Tuch, whose plus-25 was plus-3 by chances, and a cheaper trade for Jordan Kyrou, who actually fixes the problem.
- New Jersey Was the Unluckiest Finishing Team in Hockey by 13 Goals. It Spent the Summer Buying the Luckiest Shooter in the League and One of the Unluckiest.
The Devils scored 136 goals on 170 expected at 5-on-5, minus-34, the worst finishing luck in the NHL by 13 goals. Then they signed Anthony Mantha, 33 goals on 18.3 expected, and paid a first and a second for Luke Evangelista, 12 goals on 19.4. Both will regress. Only one of them was priced right.
- The Rangers Finished Last in the East With a Top-Five Power Play. Then They Paid Two Firsts and $77 Million for a Power-Play Specialist.
Pavel Dorofeyev scored 37 goals for Vegas. Nineteen came on the power play, tied for the highest share of any 33-goal scorer, and at 5-on-5 he scored at the same rate as Mika Zibanejad, who the Rangers already pay $8.5 million. New York's problem was even strength. It spent two firsts and $11 million a year on the one thing it was good at.
- St. Louis Generated Fewer Chances Than Every Team but Chicago. Mason McTavish Is the Right Fix. The Price Was Jordan Kyrou.
The Blues created 222 expected goals last season, 31st of 32. Their summer was one trade: Jordan Kyrou and a late first out, Mason McTavish and Connor McMichael in. McTavish generated more chances per minute than any Blue and gave up more than any Duck. Which number travels decides the deal.
- Ottawa Turned Brady Tkachuk Into William Eklund. At 5-on-5 They Had the Same Stat Line. That Is the Whole Problem.
At 5-on-5 last season Brady Tkachuk and William Eklund each scored 11 goals and 31 points. Tkachuk did it in 373 fewer minutes while Ottawa owned 62 percent of the ice. Eklund was a 49 percent player on a 48 percent team. The Senators sold their identity and bought a fifth-round goalie.
- Everyone Has Florida Back in the Top Five. The Panthers Spent the Summer Fixing the Half of the Rink That Was Going to Fix Itself.
Florida's bounce-back consensus rests on Barkov, both Tkachuks and a crease it says it fixed. The offence will come back. But the Panthers ranked 27th in slot shots against with the same blue line, and they replaced the 58th-ranked goaltender in the league with the 57th.
- Toronto Is Betting $21 Million That Sergei Bobrovsky's .877 Was a Fluke. The Bet That Matters Is Standing Behind the Bench.
Toronto allowed 295 goals and answered with $21 million for a 38-year-old coming off .877 and 12.2 goals below expected, while trading away its only goaltender above water. The 295 were built on 285 expected, second-worst in the league. The fix is the coach, not the crease.
- Connor Hellebuyck Wants Out. Buffalo Should Let Somebody Else Overpay.
Hellebuyck went public with his trade request and Buffalo is the name attached. But he saved 5.5 goals above expected last season while Luukkonen saved 10.5 and Lyon 12.6. The Sabres would be paying a fortune to downgrade.
- Ten Teams Have No Captain. That Has Never Happened Before, and It Is Telling You Something.
Ten teams will open camp without a captain, believed to be the most in league history. The vacancies map almost exactly onto franchises between eras, and the candidates, Carlsson, Celebrini, Werenski, show who the next decade belongs to.
- Carolina Is Shopping a Good Young Defenceman. The Numbers Explain Why It Can.
Carolina is advancing trade talks on Alexander Nikishin, a 24-year-old who just played 81 games for a champion. The reason it can: the Hurricanes controlled 57 percent with him on the ice and 56 without him.
- Tampa Played Most of Last Season Without Victor Hedman. That Is the Question Nobody Has Answered.
Victor Hedman played 33 games last season after an extended absence on personal leave. Tampa still posted a 54 percent share and plus-57 differential. The unresolved question is what the blue line looks like across 84 games.
- Every Preview Says Goaltending Will Sink Colorado. Every Preview Is Wrong.
Every preview names goaltending as Colorado's weakness. Scott Wedgewood saved 23.1 goals above expected, fifth best in the league, with Blackwood adding 8.3. On a 57 percent team with a plus-101 differential, the narrative is simply wrong.
- Calgary's Backup Was Better Than Its Franchise Goaltender. Nobody in Calgary Wants to Say It.
Calgary has built its rebuild on the premise that goaltending is settled. Devin Cooley saved 17.3 goals above expected in 31 games; Dustin Wolf was 1.8 below in 57. On a team that scored 208 goals, that gap is the whole margin.
- Ottawa Stopped Being a Sleeper. Drake Batherson Is the Proof Nobody Cites.
Ottawa controlled 55 percent of the expected goals and outscored opponents by 30, with four forwards driving play at elite rates. Drake Batherson's 33 goals and 62 percent share show the Senators are not a sleeper anymore. The crease is still the ceiling.
- The Rangers Keep Blaming the Wrong Things. Mika Zibanejad Scored 34 Goals.
New York keeps blaming its ageing veterans, but Mika Zibanejad played 81 games and scored 34 goals on a team that managed 235. The Rangers' 47 percent share was a structural problem, not a stars problem.
- San Jose Is Building Something Real. Its Goaltending Is Quietly Wasting It.
San Jose has a 115-point centre and a second star arriving, but Yaroslav Askarov finished 18.9 goals below expected, among the worst in the league. The crease is quietly burning the development years the Sharks cannot get back.
- Philadelphia Solved Its Goaltending and Nobody Noticed, Which Makes the Flyers the Sleeper Nobody Is Picking.
Nobody is picking Philadelphia, but the Flyers finished at 51 percent with an even goal differential while Daniel Vladar saved 13.8 goals above expected. They solved the position every bubble team is trying to buy.
- There Is a Countdown Clock on Every Contract Talk in Hockey, and It Runs Out on September 15.
Extensions are flying in the sleepiest weeks of the hockey calendar for one reason: after September 15, the maximum contract term drops from eight years to seven, six for free agents. The deadline reshaping every negotiation in the league.
- Vegas Has the Deepest Roster in Hockey and the Shortest Runway. Both Things Are Jack Eichel's Problem.
Vegas controlled 54 percent of the expected goals with five legitimate stars, the deepest roster in hockey. But the spine is aging, Mark Stone's 66 percent share came in only 60 games, and Jack Eichel is the one piece the Golden Knights cannot replace.
- Minnesota Is About to Have the League's Hardest Cap Problem. Matt Boldy Is the Reason It Is Worth It.
Minnesota's summer is all cap anxiety: Kaprizov's money, Quinn Hughes heading to free agency. Matt Boldy's 42-goal, plus-10 season is the reason paying those bills is the right call rather than a cautionary tale.
- Morgan Geekie Scored 39 Goals. This Is the Fluke Hunt's Best Case, and It Still Fails.
Morgan Geekie scored 39 goals at 27 on a 47 percent team, the textbook regression candidate. But his plus-12 on-off swing complicates the fluke story. Why the truth sits between the headline and the skeptics.
- St. Louis Has Two Point-Per-Game Players and Nobody Has Noticed Either of Them.
St. Louis had two point-per-game players last season, Robert Thomas and Dylan Holloway, both driving play, and nobody noticed because the team lost anyway. The Blues are a crease problem wrapped around a real top six.
- Toronto Spent the Summer Looking for Answers. One of Them Scored 31 Goals and Is Already on the Roster.
Toronto searched all summer for answers while John Tavares posted the largest on-ice swing on the roster: 56 percent with him, 40 without, plus 31 goals at 82 games. The cheapest fix available to a cap-strapped team.
- Winnipeg's Bounce-Back Case Has Nothing to Do With Its Goaltender.
Every Jets conversation is a Hellebuyck conversation, but Winnipeg had a 103-point scorer, a 39-goal winger and Gabriel Vilardi driving a plus-12 share across 82 games. The bounce-back case lives in the skater group.
- Everyone in Los Angeles Is Watching the Wrong Succession. The Important One Is on the Blue Line.
LA's summer is all about forwards: Kopitar's retirement, Kempe's load, Byfield's audition. The more consequential development is Brandt Clarke playing 82 games at 23 with 40 points and a plus-nine swing on the blue line.
- Vancouver Made a Trade Nobody Graded, and It Might Have Found a Centre.
Vancouver acquired Marco Rossi mid-season and nobody graded it. He produced 22 points in 33 games as a Canuck, on a team outscored 314 to 210. Not a franchise centre, but real value from a trade nobody examined.
- Chicago Bought Bowen Byram's Reputation. The Numbers Say It Should Have Checked the Receipt.
Chicago acquired Bowen Byram to fix a blue line that surrendered 270 goals. But Buffalo was slightly better without him last season, 50 percent to 49. The preview lists call it a prove-it year for the wrong reason.
- Nick Suzuki Just Had a 101-Point Season Driving Play Like a Selke Winner. Say It Out Loud: Top-Five Centre.
Nick Suzuki put up 101 points in 82 games with a 61 percent share and a plus-19 swing, among the widest of any full-season star centre. The lists still rank him eighth. The evidence says top five, and it is time to say it out loud.
- Patrik Laine Played Five Games for Montreal Last Season. Somebody Should Trade for Him Anyway.
Patrik Laine played five games for Montreal last season and the league has quietly given up. But the shot is intact, the Canadiens' young wings have made him redundant, and half the league needs a power play. Someone should make the cheap bet.
- Wyatt Johnston Scored 45 Goals at 23. The Fluke Police Have the Wrong Guy.
The preseason fluke hunt keeps putting Wyatt Johnston's 45 goals in the maybe pile. Wrong target: a 59 percent share at 23 inside hockey's deepest offence is the signature of a real breakout, not a shooting-luck spike.
- The Larkin Saga Is a Distraction. Detroit's Franchise Player Is Already Here.
The stalled Larkin saga has swallowed Detroit's summer, but it is the wrong story. Lucas Raymond drove a plus-16 on-off swing at 24, elite-driver territory, and the Red Wings' next good team is already built around him.
- Two Eras Are Ending in Los Angeles at Once, and Adrian Kempe Is the Bridge.
Kopitar has slipped to 38 points, Artemi Panarin arrived at midseason producing at a point per game deep into his thirties, and Adrian Kempe's team-leading 36 goals are the only scoring LA keeps. Two eras are ending at once in Los Angeles.
- Chicago Quietly Solved the Hardest Problem in Its Rebuild, and Nobody Noticed.
Everyone narrates Chicago through Bedard and Kane's homecoming, but the rebuild's hardest problem got solved in the crease: Spencer Knight saved 10.9 goals above expected behind a 44 percent team at 25. Nobody noticed the most important part.
- The Biggest Swing Factor in the East Is a Defenceman Who Played 55 Games.
The bounce-back lists are full of forwards, but the real answer is Adam Fox: 53 points in 55 games and a plus-23 on-ice swing, 60 percent with him and 37 without. His health is the biggest single swing factor in the East.