Story Archive

Two of hockey's best young forwards, Cutter Gauthier and Adam Fantilli, are still unsigned as camp nears. The RFA freeze the Celebrini, Carlsson and Bedard deals created is the real story of the offseason, and it is only getting started.

Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, the two best offensive defencemen in the world, both hit unrestricted free agency next July with linked negotiations and a record number in play. Why their deals will reset the blue-line market for a decade.

Toronto allowed 295 goals on a 46 percent share, a defensive problem its stars did not cause. Morgan Rielly is the name in every rumor because he is valuable and movable, not because he is the flaw. Why the Leafs risk fixing the wrong thing.

Brad Marchand scored 27 goals in 52 games and then needed surgery, and it lands on the one team whose whole formula is a health bet. Why Florida, out-scored on paper last season, just saw its depth become the defining question of its season.

Boston was a 47 percent team carried by David Pastrnak, stuck between competing and retooling. Pavel Zacha, a 30-goal middle-six centre with real trade value, is the clearest signal of which direction the Bruins actually choose.

Utah keeps topping most-improved lists, and the numbers back it: a 51 percent team out-scoring opponents, led by 22-year-old Dylan Guenther's 40-goal, play-driving breakout. Why the hype is real, and why goaltending is the one thing that decides the leap.

Carolina was the most dominant two-way team in hockey (56 percent, plus-55 goal differential), and its biggest offseason development is internal: Seth Jarvis, 24, entering his prime after a 32-goal season. Why the champions might not just repeat but improve.

Montreal paid a fortune for Noah Dobson, and his 47 points look fine until you see the Canadiens were better without him on the ice (48 percent on, 51 percent off). Set against Lane Hutson's plus-17 swing, the underlying numbers say buyer beware.

Alex Ovechkin is winding down, but Washington is a solid 51 percent team, not a collapse waiting to happen. Tom Wilson's evolution into a 30-goal leader is the bridge to the next era. Why the Capitals turned the end of a legend into a handoff.

Anaheim added Chris Kreider to accelerate its rebuild, but the Ducks already controlled play up front. Their real flaw was a blue line that allowed 288 goals. Why a good-player signing risks blocking the young forwards it was meant to help.

Pittsburgh is a 51 percent team propped up by hot finishing and an aging core, and Erik Karlsson is the most valuable asset it keeps refusing to move. Why the Penguins' loyalty to the status quo is quietly costing them the reset they need.

Kirill Marchenko is the summer's hottest trade rumor, but he scored 27 goals and drove a plus-13 on-off for a rising Columbus team. Why the data says the Blue Jackets should hang up on every call.

Sheldon Keefe is on the hot seat, but New Jersey was a 51 percent team that under-finished by 35 goals with an injured Jack Hughes and a leaky crease. The data says the Devils were unlucky, not badly coached.

The book on Minnesota says it needs a second-line centre. But Joel Eriksson Ek drives a plus-9 share as an elite two-way pivot, and with Kaprizov and Hughes around him, the hole is more nuance than crisis.

Filip Forsberg scored 40 and Nashville's veteran core can still play, but it is aging and the crease sank them. The Predators face the hardest call in hockey: bet on a narrow window, or begin to let go.

Seattle scored among the fewest goals in the league on a 46 percent share, a team with no top-line driver. Matty Beniers already tilts the ice at plus-11; the Kraken's whole ceiling rides on whether he becomes a star.

Cutter Gauthier scored 41 goals and drove a plus-11 share at 21, and Anaheim under-finished by 21 goals. The offence has arrived. Why the Ducks' next step rides entirely on a blue line Gauthier can't fix.

Rasmus Dahlin drove a plus-13 on-off as a genuine No. 1 defenceman, but Buffalo's 109-point season rode roughly 50 goals of luck on a 49 percent team. Whether the Sabres hold up depends on whether last year was real.

Andrei Vasilevskiy saved nearly 25 goals above expected, and that crease is doing more than winning games. It is holding a top-heavy, cap-strapped Tampa contender together. The window stays open exactly as long as he stays elite.

Dallas is loaded up front and a 52 percent team, but Jake Oettinger saved just 5.7 above expected, a notch below the elite tier, and his backup outperformed him. Why the crease is the one question standing between the Stars and a Cup.

The Islanders looked respectable, but they were a 48 percent team saved by one of the best goalie seasons in hockey. Mathew Barzal drove a plus-16 on-off underneath it. He is the real engine; Sorokin was the mirage.

The book on Jordan Kyrou says defensive liability. The Blues controlled 59 percent of the chances with him on the ice and 44 without him. The reputation is three years out of date, and the crease, not the winger, is St. Louis's real problem.

Carolina won the Cup, and Sebastian Aho is the two-way spine that made it work. His on-off looks modest only because the Hurricanes are elite without him too. The most underrated superstar in hockey does everything at once.

Brady Tkachuk drove a 67 percent on-ice share, among the best marks in hockey, and Ottawa was a top-three possession team. The only thing that held the Senators back was goaltending, and that is the flaw most likely to fix itself.

Bedard drove a plus-14 on-off and Frank Nazar broke out as a plus-7 sophomore, but Chicago was still a 44 percent team with a barren supporting cast. The stars are here; the rebuild's middle innings are the slow part.

Evan Bouchard scored 95 points from the blue line and drove a plus-8 even-strength swing without shelter. The turnovers are real but outweighed. The question isn't whether he's good; it's whether Edmonton builds the blue line that lets his gifts win.

The Rantanen trade was called a Colorado loss. A year later, Martin Necas scored 100 points and drove a 64 percent share, giving the Avalanche the second star they long lacked. The deal won, and the only question left is the spring.

Amid Winnipeg's collapse, Kyle Connor scored 92 goals-and-points with a plus-10 on-off, the star whose game held up best. Why the data says he, not Scheifele, is the Jet to build the bounce-back around.

Columbus has had a rising young core for years and no goalie to support it. Jet Greaves changed that with a plus-16.5 season, the exact piece the Blue Jackets were missing. The whole rebuild now rides on whether it was real.

Elias Pettersson's points cratered to 51 and the narrative called it a decline, but he still drove a plus-13 on-off on a 45 percent team. Vancouver allowed a league-worst 314 goals. The scary part isn't Pettersson; it's everything around him.

Philadelphia was a 51 percent possession team with a young core, a reborn Trevor Zegras, and the biggest cap war chest in hockey. Matvei Michkov is the jewel, but the Flyers are already good, and closer than anyone thinks.

Matthews scored 53 in 60 injury-shortened games but still drove play. Toronto's collapse was a 46 percent team allowing 295 goals behind a blue line where four of six defenders sank. The stars were never the problem.

The skeptics have Kaprizov backwards. He drove a plus-18 on-off, not just 89 points, and the Quinn Hughes trade gives Minnesota two of the league's biggest on-ice engines. The record contract is justified and the window is now.

The Kings lost Kopitar to retirement and answered with a winger in Panarin, leaving the first-line centre hole wide open. Los Angeles was a 51 percent team that scored 29 goals below expected. The season rests on whether Quinton Byfield finally leaps.

DeBrincat, Raymond, Larkin, Kane and a 60-point Seider give Detroit a real top five. It missed anyway, because the bottom six craters and the crease split in half behind Cam Talbot's minus-13. The Yzerplan built the hard part; the easy part keeps ending the season.

Colorado controlled 57 percent of the expected goals and allowed the fewest goals in hockey. On a team this deep, even the best defenceman alive posts an on-off that undersells him. The only thing left to prove is the only thing that counts.

Kucherov scored 130 points and the Lightning were a different, worse team the moment he sat. The best offensive player in hockey is carrying a roster that gets thinner every summer.

Eichel, Marner, Stone, Hertl, Dorofeyev. Vegas has the deepest forward group in hockey and a 54 percent team to show for it. The problem is a crease that cost it 14 goals.

The Robertson standoff owns the Dallas headlines, but the more important story is that the Rantanen blockbuster already worked. He is a two-way engine, and that is the leverage the Stars can afford to use.

Ovechkin scored 32 in the twilight, but Washington was a 51 percent team carried by one of the best goaltending seasons in hockey. The Capitals go as far as Logan Thompson takes them.