Ottawa Senators
Washington CapitalsDylan Larkin played his first game of the season on Tuesday night in front of a home crowd that booed him loudly and chanted for the owner to sell the team. Then he scored the goal that gave Detroit its first lead of the season, added an assist, and the Red Wings beat Ottawa 5-3 for their first win. Afterwards he said he was "trying to be a man and face it."
It was the most dramatic night of a strange first week, and it changed nothing about the central problem. Larkin asked for a trade after Detroit missed the playoffs for a 10th straight season. He was stripped of the captaincy on 11 September, having held it since January 2021. He carries an $8.7 million cap hit through 2030-31 with a no-movement clause, and the reported list of teams he would accept has grown from a handful to as many as eight, Washington among them.
Nobody has met the Detroit asking price. The numbers suggest the market is reading him correctly, and Detroit is the side that needs to move.
What kind of player is Larkin now?
He is a reliable 30-goal scorer, and that is not in dispute. He has scored between 30 and 34 in each of the last five seasons.
The question a buyer asks is where those goals come from. Last season, 13 of Larkin's 34 came at five-on-four, tied for 10th in the league. Only nine came at five-on-five, on 11.7 expected goals, so his even-strength finishing was below his chances, not above them.
| Larkin, 2025-26 | Goals | Expected goals | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| All situations | 34 | 33.8 | 67 |
| 5-on-5 | 9 | 11.7 | 25 |
| 5-on-4 power play | 13 | 12.0 | 19 |
At five-on-five he produced 1.41 points per 60 minutes. Among 167 centres who played at least 60 games, that ranked 101st. His on-ice expected goals share was 47.2 per cent, 121st of the same 167. Detroit was slightly worse at five-on-five with him on the ice than with him off it.
How does he compare inside his own team?
This is the uncomfortable table for a franchise centre.
| 2025-26 Red Wings forwards, 40+ games | 5-on-5 points | Points per 60 | xG share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | 45 | 2.31 | 53.1% |
| Patrick Kane | 31 | 2.00 | 52.5% |
| Lucas Raymond | 37 | 1.94 | 48.5% |
| James van Riemsdyk | 20 | 1.74 | 48.0% |
| David Perron | 20 | 1.61 | 57.0% |
| Andrew Copp | 26 | 1.51 | 50.7% |
| J.T. Compher | 26 | 1.48 | 46.6% |
| Larkin | 25 | 1.41 | 47.2% |
Larkin was eighth among Detroit forwards in five-on-five scoring rate. He still played 20:12 a night, won 52.9 per cent of his faceoffs and took the hard matchups, and that has real value. But a team trading for him is buying a power-play shooter who plays heavy minutes, at $8.7 million for five seasons, through his age-34 year.
Why has nobody met the price?
Because the teams on his list can read the same numbers. Each of them would also have to move salary to fit the cap hit, and a contending team rarely pays a premium for a centre whose even-strength results trail his own wingers. Reporting late last month suggested a deal this season looked unlikely unless his list widened again or Detroit lowered its ask.
The list has widened. The ask, as far as anyone has reported, has not. Every week he stays, the asset gets older.
The case for keeping him, stated fairly
The best argument for Detroit holding firm goes like this. Five straight 30-goal seasons are rare, centres who can do it are scarce, and the no-movement clause means any buyer is one of a few teams Larkin picked. Detroit has an interim general manager, Shawn Horcoff, after Steve Yzerman moved into an advisory role, and selling a franchise centre at a discount is not a decision an interim regime should rush. Larkin's power-play production is genuinely elite, and a 13-goal power-play shooter changes a playoff team.
The other side is the one his five-on-five line keeps pointing to. The goals are real, but most of the value sits on a power play, the even-strength results ranked in the bottom half of the league's centres, and the contract runs to his age-34 season. The price Detroit wants belongs to a top-line driver. The player the numbers describe is a very good second-line centre with an elite power-play shot.
Detroit should take the best reasonable offer before the deadline, not hold out for the one that matches his reputation.
What it means for Detroit
The Red Wings are 1-2 and their roster has bigger questions than Larkin. Simon Edvinsson is still an unsigned restricted free agent, and the franchise piece we argued for in August, Lucas Raymond, is already here. Last month we wrote that Detroit's real problem was finishing, and that has not changed either.
Tuesday's goal was the best possible audition. It should be treated as one. Track Larkin's five-on-five scoring on his player page and every deal on the trades page.