Calgary Flames
Philadelphia FlyersSeattle is 5-2 and has won the first three games of a five-game road trip, the latest a 3-2 shootout win in Philadelphia on Tuesday. The Kraken have scored 29 goals in seven games, tied for the third-most in the league, and after three seasons stuck between 76 and 81 points there is a temptation to call this the year they turn the corner.
The record deserves a closer look before anyone does. Three of the five wins came against Calgary and Philadelphia, who have one regulation win between them. At five-on-five Seattle has been outplayed for most of the month, and the goals have come from finishing and goaltending running well above what the chances were worth.
Who has Seattle beaten?
Split the schedule in two and the picture changes.
| Seattle, 2026-27 | Games | Record | Goals for | Goals against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Calgary and Philadelphia | 3 | 3-0 | 15 | 4 |
| vs everyone else | 4 | 2-2 | 14 | 15 |
| Total | 7 | 5-2 | 29 | 19 |
Calgary is 1-5 with two points, tied for the fewest in the league, and Seattle beat it 6-1 twice. We argued last week that the Flames should keep selling. Philadelphia has not won a game in eight tries, a skid we looked at last week. Against Edmonton, Vegas, Detroit and Washington, Seattle is 2-2 and has been outscored by a goal. Beating bad teams is not nothing, and plenty of good teams fail to do it. But a 3-0 record against two clubs at the bottom of the standings says little about where Seattle belongs.
How is Seattle being outplayed and still winning?
By scoring on a high share of its chances and stopping a high share of the other team's. At five-on-five the Kraken have taken 45.7 per cent of the expected goals, 25th in the league, and 42.4 per cent of the shot attempts. They are allowing 30.6 shots a game, third-most, and 3.05 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, 30th. On those numbers they should be losing more than they win.
Instead they have taken 65.7 per cent of the actual five-on-five goals, third in the league. Two things explain the gap. Seattle has scored 5.6 more goals than its chances were worth, fourth-most, and its goaltenders have saved 4.5 more than an average pair would have, eighth. That is more than ten goals of help in seven games.
Frederick Gaudreau is the clearest example: four goals on ten shots worth just over one expected goal. Mackie Samoskevich has three goals from 1.3 expected. In net, Philipp Grubauer has a .918 save percentage and has saved 4.1 goals above expected in four appearances, and Joey Daccord is at .913.
Is any of it sustainable?
Some of it. Bobby McMann has three goals on 24 shots and is scoring about what his chances deserve, and the 13 goals he has in 25 games with the Kraken are the most by any Seattle player through his first 25 with the club. Jared McCann has seven points while actually finishing below expected, which suggests his production has room to grow. The power play is converting 22.7 per cent of its chances.
The five-on-five profile is the part that worries us, because it is last season's.
| Seattle at five-on-five | 2025-26 | 2026-27, seven games |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 46.0% (29th) | 45.7% (25th) |
| Shot attempt share | 45.4% | 42.4% |
| Expected goals against per 60 | 2.51 | 3.05 (30th) |
| Goals saved above expected | +0.9 (18th) | +4.5 (8th) |
| Shooting vs expected | +0.1 (14th) | +5.6 (4th) |
The 2025-26 Kraken finished with 79 points. The 2026-27 version is giving up more at five-on-five than that team did. What has changed is that the pucks are going in at one end and staying out at the other.
What should Seattle take from this start?
Bank the points and keep the plan. Ten points in seven games are worth having, and in a tight Pacific they could matter in March. But Lane Lambert's team should not mistake October finishing for a new identity. The real progress in Seattle will show up in the five-on-five numbers of its young centres, Matty Beniers, Shane Wright and Berkly Catton, and in August we argued that Beniers is the way out of the middle of the standings. That has not happened yet. Beniers has three points in seven games.
The case for believing in Seattle, stated fairly
The optimistic case goes like this. Good teams beat bad teams, and Seattle has done it convincingly, outscoring Calgary and Philadelphia 15-4. Grubauer had a strong 2025-26 by expected goals, 5.7 above average in 32 games, so his start is not out of character. The Kraken have a deep group of young forwards, and seven games of shot data say less than the standings will say in December.
The other side is that the shot data has said the same thing for two seasons. A team allowing the third-most shots in the league, with a five-on-five share in the bottom eight, does not usually stay in a playoff spot once its shooting cools.
Seattle has a nice record built on the same underlying team. The points it has banked will still count in April, even if the improvement does not hold.
What to watch
The next four games: Tampa Bay and Florida to finish the road trip, then Detroit and Utah at home. If Seattle can push its five-on-five share toward 50 per cent while the finishing comes down, this is a playoff team. If the share stays near 45, the record will drift back toward last season's. Every Kraken number is on the team stats page.