Macklin Celebrini missed two games with a lower-body injury this month and came back on Saturday as if nothing had happened. He has eight points in four games, the Sharks' new captain is still only 20, and San Jose is 3-3 after jumping from 52 points to 86 last season.
A .500 start sounds like a team holding its ground. It hides how San Jose has actually played. All three wins came in overtime, the three losses came by a combined 14-4, and at five-on-five the Sharks have been one of the two worst teams in the league. The step forward last season was real. The next one depends on the young players around Celebrini, and so far they are being outplayed badly.
How has San Jose played with and without Celebrini?
Better with him, and still not well.
| San Jose, 2026-27 | Games | Record | Goals for | Goals against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Celebrini | 4 | 2-2 | 13 | 16 |
| Without Celebrini | 2 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 |
Without him the Sharks lost 5-0 in Dallas and needed overtime to beat St. Louis 3-2. With him they won two overtime games, against Florida and Los Angeles, and lost to Edmonton and Boston. Celebrini has two goals, six assists and four power-play points while playing 21.6 minutes a night. Last season he scored 45 goals and 115 points, fourth in the league, and he was named the youngest captain in franchise history last month.
Even with him, the five-on-five numbers are poor. San Jose is creating 1.72 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, the lowest rate in the league, and allowing 2.89, 26th. It has taken 30.8 per cent of the high-danger shots and 30.8 per cent of the actual five-on-five goals.
Which young players are struggling?
The ones the rebuild is built on. San Jose has used high picks on forwards in four straight drafts, and three of them are in the lineup every night alongside Celebrini.
| Sharks forward | Drafted | 2026-27 points | On-ice 5-on-5 expected goals share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celebrini | 1st overall, 2024 | 8 in 4 games | about 45% |
| Ivar Stenberg | 2nd overall, 2026 | 4 in 6 games | about 33% |
| Will Smith | 4th overall, 2023 | 4 in 6 games | about 30% |
| Michael Misa | 2nd overall, 2025 | 3 in 6 games | about 30% |
With Smith, Misa or Stenberg on the ice at five-on-five, San Jose has generated roughly one expected goal for every two it has allowed. Stenberg, at 19, is producing on the power play, with three of his four points there, which is a good sign for a player in his first NHL month. Smith, who had 59 points last season and was the second star we expected to arrive, has two goals but is being hemmed in at even strength. Misa has three assists and no goals.
None of this is surprising for players aged 19 to 21 in their first few NHL seasons. It is still the most important number in San Jose, because the 86-point season leaned on things that rarely repeat.
How did San Jose get to 86 points last season?
With finishing and Celebrini, and in spite of its goaltending.
| San Jose | 2025-26 | 2026-27, six games |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 expected goals share | 47.6% (26th) | 37.3% (31st) |
| Goals scored vs expected | +7.3 | +1.3 |
| Goals saved above expected | -25.7 (31st) | -0.4 (21st) |
| Points | 86 | 6 in 6 games |
Last season the Sharks were outplayed at five-on-five, finished well, and still made a 34-point jump because Celebrini was one of the best players in the world. Their goaltending was 25.7 goals below expected, 31st, the problem we flagged in August when we wrote that the crease was quietly wasting the rebuild. Yaroslav Askarov is at .848 in five starts this season, two goals below expected.
What should San Jose do?
Protect the kids' minutes and fix the crease, in that order of patience. Stenberg, Misa and Smith should be getting easier starts and more offensive-zone faceoffs until their five-on-five numbers stabilise, not matchups against top lines. A rebuilding team learns more from a young centre breaking even in sheltered minutes than from one being outshot two to one in hard ones.
The goaltending is the part that cannot wait. San Jose has the best young forward group in the league on paper and a goaltender who has been well below average for a season and a week. If Askarov does not turn it around by Christmas, the Sharks should look for a veteran starter rather than spend the early years of Celebrini waiting.
The case for patience, stated fairly
The case for calm goes like this. Six games is a tiny sample, Celebrini missed two of them, and the three overtime wins still count. Young forwards often start slowly, and three of San Jose's key forwards are between 19 and 21. The Sharks were outplayed for much of 2025-26 too and still gained 34 points, so a poor five-on-five month is no reason to change course.
The other side is that last season's jump relied on finishing above expected and on one superstar, and neither is a plan. A team taking 37 per cent of the expected goals is not a playoff team in any year, and three overtime wins will not keep happening.
San Jose has the player every rebuild wants. It now needs the players drafted after him to stop losing their minutes so badly.
What to watch
Smith's and Misa's on-ice numbers over the next 15 games, and Askarov's save percentage. If the young forwards climb toward 45 per cent and Askarov gets near .900, the Sharks are a fringe playoff team with Celebrini. If not, this is another development year. Every Sharks number is on the team stats page.