The Predators went into Boston on Thursday night and lost 6-0. It was the third regulation loss of a 3-3-3 start, and the second game in nine without an even-strength goal. Filip Forsberg went seven games without scoring before he finally beat St. Louis on October 17, a drought Sports Illustrated's Predators site treated as a relief for the whole city. Of the 23 goals Nashville has scored, only 11 have come at five-on-five.
The easy reading is a slow start from two stars. The more useful one is that Steven Stamkos and Forsberg spent last season scoring far more than their chances were worth, and that hid how little the rest of the lineup was producing. This year they are scoring about what their chances say they should, and the team underneath them is showing through.
Is this a finishing problem or a chance problem?
Both, and the chance problem is the one that should worry Nashville more.
At five-on-five the Predators have scored 11 goals on 16.7 expected, a shortfall of 5.7 goals that ranks 31st in the league. Only Calgary has finished worse. That part will improve on its own, because nobody shoots 7.0 per cent at five-on-five for a season.
The trouble is what sits behind it. Nashville has 44.6 per cent of the five-on-five shot attempts, 28th in the league, and 45.2 per cent of the expected goals, 26th. It ranks 27th in expected goals for per 60 minutes and 23rd in expected goals against. Average luck would make the scoreboard kinder, but the Predators would still be losing the shot battle most nights.
| Nashville at five-on-five | 2026-27 | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shot attempt share | 44.6% | 28th |
| Expected goals share | 45.2% | 26th |
| Expected goals for per 60 | 2.24 | 27th |
| Expected goals against per 60 | 2.72 | 23rd |
| Shooting percentage | 7.0% | 29th |
| Save percentage | .902 | 17th |
| Goals minus expected goals | -5.7 | 31st |
The one area where the Predators look like a good team is the power play. They have scored seven goals at five-on-four in 46 minutes, fifth in the league by rate, and they have not allowed a shorthanded goal. Their chance creation on the man advantage ranks 16th, so even that is running a little hot.
What did last season hide?
Last season Nashville finished with 86 points, and it did so with two shooters carrying an enormous load. Stamkos scored 42 goals from chances worth 28.9. Forsberg scored 40 from 28.6. Between them, that is 24.5 goals more than their shots were worth, the kind of finishing that wins a lot of hockey games on its own.
Everyone else went the other way. Nashville's team-wide five-on-five finishing was 15.6 goals below expected last season, despite those two stars running well above it. The rest of the skaters still on the roster at the end of the year scored 92 five-on-five goals on chances worth 105.6.
This season the stars have come back to normal. Stamkos and Forsberg have two five-on-five goals on chances worth 2.5, almost exactly what you would expect. Everyone else has nine goals on 14.2. So the gap is the same one as last season, and this time nobody is covering for it.
| Nashville five-on-five finishing | Goals | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|
| Stamkos and Forsberg, 2025-26 | 41 | 31.0 |
| Rest of the roster, 2025-26 | 92 | 105.6 |
| Stamkos and Forsberg, 2026-27 | 2 | 2.5 |
| Rest of the roster, 2026-27 | 9 | 14.2 |
Who is being outplayed?
The veterans down the middle. Ryan O'Reilly has four goals and plays 21 minutes a night, but at five-on-five Nashville has 38 per cent of the expected goals when he is out there and has been outscored 9-5. Jonathan Marchessault is at 35 per cent, and Stamkos himself is at 41. All three are 35 or older.
On the blue line, Brady Skjei has been on the ice for 10 five-on-five goals against and three for, with 41 per cent of the expected goals. Nicolas Hague is at 33 per cent.
| Nashville skater | Five-on-five TOI per game | On-ice expected goals share | On-ice goals for-against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi | 18.8 | 46% | 5-3 |
| Adam Wilsby | 17.0 | 54% | 6-3 |
| Filip Forsberg | 15.9 | 50% | 6-6 |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 14.2 | 38% | 5-9 |
| Steven Stamkos | 14.2 | 41% | 5-6 |
| Jonathan Marchessault | 13.1 | 35% | 2-6 |
| Brady Skjei | 15.0 | 41% | 3-10 |
| Nicolas Hague | 17.0 | 33% | 1-5 |
The pairings and lines that are holding their own have a younger player on them. Adam Wilsby is at 54 per cent and has five assists. Nils Höglander has three goals in 11 minutes a night and a 54 per cent share at five-on-five. Forsberg's own line is breaking even at five-on-five, and counting the power play, where he works with Roman Josi, he has been on the ice for 15 Nashville goals.
Is the crease still the problem?
No, and that is where our view has changed most. In August we argued that Nashville's missed season pointed straight at the crease. Juuse Saros finished last season 9.3 goals below expected with an .894 save percentage, and that was a fair diagnosis of last year.
This year Saros is at .906 and 1.7 goals above expected through seven starts. The five-on-five save percentage ranks 17th, right in the middle of the league. Nashville has the goaltending it was missing, and it is 3-3-3 anyway. The crease was one problem. It was never the only one.
The strangest stat on the team
Nashville has scored first three times this season and has not won any of those games. It led Toronto and Ottawa and lost both after regulation, and it opened the scoring against Vegas before losing 5-2. All three wins came after falling behind, against Dallas, Montreal and St. Louis. That is a small sample with a lot of noise in it. It also fits a team that can push back for a period but cannot hold the puck for a full game.
The case for patience, stated fairly
Nine games is not much. The finishing gap will close, because a 7.0 per cent five-on-five shooting rate is not a talent level for a team with Stamkos, Forsberg and O'Reilly. The power play is a real weapon, Saros is playing like a starter again, and Forsberg's 24 shots in nine games say his goals are coming. A Central team with nine points from nine games is not out of anything in October, and Nashville showed against St. Louis that it can still pull away from a decent team.
The other side is that the shot share is the part that does not fix itself, and it is driven by the oldest players on the roster. Last season Nashville needed its two stars to score 24 more goals than expected just to reach 86 points. Nobody should expect that again from players who are 36 and 32.
In August we wrote that this core has one good run left. Nine games in, we would change that to say the run is probably already behind it. Nashville should give this group until American Thanksgiving, and if the five-on-five share is still near 45 per cent, start listening on Marchessault and O'Reilly while they still have value.
What to watch
The five-on-five share first, because the finishing will correct and the share will not unless the lineup changes. Then the minutes. If Höglander and Wilsby keep winning their shifts and still play less than the veterans, that tells you how Nashville plans to handle the next month. Every Predators number is on the team stats page, and the Central race is on the standings.