The Senators beat Florida 5-1 on Wednesday, spoiling Brady Tkachuk's first game back in Ottawa, and went to bed at 7-3. By Thursday night they were 7-4. Linus Ullmark left the Florida game with a lower-body strain and went on injured reserve the next day. Samuel Ersson started against San Jose and Ottawa lost 6-2.
That loss was not a one-off. Ottawa has played 11 games. Ullmark started eight of them and the Senators won seven. Ersson started the other three and the Senators lost all three. Ullmark is listed as out until at least Oct. 29, and the next week will show how much of Ottawa's start belongs to the team and how much belongs to one goaltender.
How big is the gap between the two goaltenders?
About as big as it gets. Ullmark has stopped 171 of 181 shots, a .945 save percentage, and allowed 10 goals in eight appearances. By MoneyPuck's model he has saved 8.4 goals more than an average goaltender would have on the same shots, second in the league behind Jake Oettinger. Ersson is at .828 in his three starts and 4.8 goals below expected overall, fifth-worst of the 67 goaltenders who have played this season.
The game-by-game record makes the split plain.
| Date | Opponent | Starter | Saves / shots | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 3 | at Toronto | Ullmark | 27 / 29 | W 3-2 |
| Oct. 5 | at Boston | Ullmark | 10 / 10 | W 4-1 |
| Oct. 6 | at Detroit | Ersson | 31 / 35 | L 3-5 |
| Oct. 8 | Philadelphia | Ullmark | 28 / 29 | W 2-1 |
| Oct. 10 | Nashville | Ullmark | 16 / 18 | SOW 3-2 |
| Oct. 12 | at New Jersey | Ullmark | 29 / 30 | W 4-1 |
| Oct. 13 | St. Louis | Ersson | 19 / 26 | L 2-7 |
| Oct. 15 | NY Islanders | Ullmark | 20 / 21 | SOW 2-1 |
| Oct. 17 | at Philadelphia | Ullmark | 25 / 27 | L 1-3 |
| Oct. 21 | Florida | Ullmark | 16 / 17 | W 5-1 |
| Oct. 22 | San Jose | Ersson | 22 / 26 | L 2-6 |
Ullmark's numbers in Boston cover his first 40 minutes. He was pulled as a precaution that night after a bump from JJ Peterka, and Pro Hockey Rumors reported that the injury this week is in the same lower-body area. Ersson finished that game with 8 saves on 9 shots.
Every Ersson start has also come on the second night of a back-to-back, which is why The Hockey News pointed out that Ottawa is 0-3 in those games. The Senators won the first night all three times. In the three second nights they allowed 18 goals, three of them into an empty net. In their other eight games they allowed 11.
Is the rest of the team the reason, or is it the goaltending?
Mostly the goaltending, because the team in front of it is closer to average than the record suggests. At five-on-five Ottawa has 51 per cent of the expected goals, 18th in the league. It has scored 19 goals and allowed 18. Across all situations it has scored 29 and allowed 30, before counting the two shootout winners. A 7-4 record with an even goal differential is the shape of a team that has won its close games, and Ottawa is 4-0 in one-goal games with four comeback wins.
| Ottawa, 2026-27 | Number | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| Five-on-five expected goals share | 51.0% | 18th |
| Penalties drawn | 59 | Tied 1st |
| Five-on-four ice time | 73.7 minutes | 2nd |
| Power-play goals per 60 | 4.9 | 26th |
| Power-play expected goals per 60 | 6.1 | 24th |
| All-situations shooting percentage | 10.4% | 21st |
The top of the lineup is doing its job. Tim Stützle has seven goals and 15 points in 11 games, and Ottawa has 61 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals with him on the ice, where it has outscored opponents 10 to 3. Drake Batherson is at 58 per cent and on the ice for seven goals for and one against, which fits what we argued about him in August. Claude Giroux is at 59.
Below that it thins out. Shane Pinto is at 45 per cent and on the ice for nine five-on-five goals against and five for. Michael Amadio is at 43 per cent. Dylan Cozens has no goals on 24 shots, from chances worth 2.65 expected goals. The depth problem is also an injury problem. Thomas Chabot, who plays 25 minutes a night, is out until at least Oct. 27, and William Eklund, the player Ottawa got back for Tkachuk, is on injured reserve with an ankle injury until at least January. We wrote in September that the two had the same five-on-five stat line. Ottawa has had Eklund for four games.
Why can't Ottawa turn penalties into goals?
This is the strangest number on the team. Nobody in the league gets to the power play more often. Ottawa has drawn 59 penalties, tied with Florida for the most, and has played 73.7 minutes at five-on-four, second in the league and about 24 minutes more than the average team.
Three Senators are near the top of the penalty-drawing board on our Insights page.
| Player | Penalties drawn | Penalties taken | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ridly Greig | 10 | 5 | +5 |
| Claude Giroux | 7 | 1 | +6 |
| Tim Stützle | 7 | 1 | +6 |
Ridly Greig has drawn more penalties than any player in the NHL, in nine games. Giroux and Stützle are tied with Carolina's Jackson Blake for the best net figure in the league.
What happens next is the problem. Ottawa has six power-play goals in those 73.7 minutes. That is 4.9 goals per 60 minutes, against a league average of 7.4, and it ranks 26th. The chance numbers are almost as poor, 24th in expected goals per 60, so this is more than bad luck on a few one-timers. A league-average power play would have scored about nine goals with that much time. Ottawa has also given up two shorthanded goals, including Collin Graf's on Thursday.
That matters more now. Ullmark covered for a power play that wasted a league-leading supply of chances. Without him, those three missing goals start to look like losses.
Can Ullmark keep this up when he returns?
Not at this level, and Ottawa should plan for that. Last season Ullmark played 49 games with an .891 save percentage and finished 12.8 goals below expected, fourth-worst among the 29 goaltenders who played 40 or more games. Ottawa still won 99 points, because the skaters were good enough to carry an ordinary crease. This year the skaters are closer to average at five-on-five, and the goaltender has been the best part of the team.
The depth chart behind him is the real worry. Ersson finished last season in Philadelphia at .870 and 16.5 goals below expected in 33 games. Jonas Johansson, recalled from Belleville on Thursday, was at .884 and 10.4 below expected in 25 games for Tampa Bay. All three goaltenders Ottawa can dress were below average a year ago, and the one who is above average now has hurt the same area twice in three weeks. Travis Green told NHL.com, "That's as good as I can say right now," when asked about the timeline.
The case for patience, stated fairly
The argument against reading much into this is about sample size and schedule. Ersson has made three starts, all on the second night of a back-to-back, against a tired team in front of him. A goaltender who faced 35 shots in Detroit and lost 5-3 did not play badly that night. Ullmark is expected back within days of Oct. 29, and Ottawa is still 7-4 with Stützle playing like a star.
The other side is that the pattern is now three for three, the goalie behind Ullmark was 16.5 goals below expected last season, and the starter's own track record says his .945 will fall even when he is healthy. A team at 51 per cent of the expected goals cannot rely on a goaltender to steal it a playoff spot for 82 games.
Our view is that Ottawa should look for a goaltender who can start 25 to 30 games now, before the injury tells it to, and that the power play needs to change before the next week costs it the cushion Ullmark built.
What to watch
Saturday's game against the Rangers is the first full test without Ullmark, and whether Green turns to Ersson again or gives Johansson the net. Watch the five-on-four numbers too. Ottawa will keep drawing penalties, and the standings will look very different if it starts scoring on them. Every Senators number is on the team stats page, and the Atlantic race is on the standings.