Oettinger Has Three Shutouts. Dallas Still Can't Create Chances.

Jake Oettinger has made seven appearances this season and kept a clean sheet in three of them. No Dallas goaltender had ever recorded three shutouts in his first six appearances of a season, and he did it with a 4-0 win in Chicago on Saturday. The Stars beat Boston in overtime on Tuesday and are 5-3-1, and they have allowed 15 goals in nine games, the fewest in the NHL.

The goaltending is real, and so is the defending in front of it. The trouble is the other end of the rink. Dallas is one of the worst teams in the league at creating chances at five-on-five, which is the same problem we flagged in September when we pointed out that the Stars won 112 points and were 22nd at even strength. Oettinger is covering for it again, and he cannot keep doing it at this level.

How good has Oettinger been?

Better than anyone in the league so far. He has stopped 138 of 146 shots for a .945 save percentage and a 1.13 goals-against average. By MoneyPuck's model, the shots he has faced were worth 17.4 goals and he has allowed eight, which makes him 9.4 goals better than an average goaltender. Ilya Sorokin is second at 8.3.

That is a big change from last season. Oettinger finished at .899 in 54 games, down from .909 the year before, and it is why we asked in August whether he was enough for a team built to win in June.

Nobody stops 94.5 per cent of shots over a season. The best full seasons in recent years have landed around .925. He has faced about 21 shots a game. Even a very good Oettinger year from here, something near .912, means Dallas gives up about two more goals every three games than it has so far.

Is the defending as good as the goals against?

Most of it is. Dallas ranks fifth in five-on-five expected goals against per 60 minutes and the penalty kill has allowed two goals in 56 minutes shorthanded, second-best in the league. Miro Heiskanen is playing 25:40 a night with three goals, and Thomas Harley has the team at 56 per cent of the expected goals when he is on the ice.

But at five-on-five the Stars have allowed nine goals on chances worth 15.9. A gap of nearly seven goals in nine games is goaltending, and it is the single biggest reason the record looks better than the underlying share.

Why can't Dallas create chances?

Part of the answer is a player having a bad week. Wyatt Johnston scored 45 goals last season, and we argued in August that he is not a fluke. He has no goals this season. He has 20 shots in seven games, and his chances have been worth 3.9 expected goals, the most on the team. He also missed two games with an illness. That is a slump, and it will end.

The power play is the same story. Dallas has scored three times in 42 minutes of five-on-four play, 27th in goals per 60, while generating chances at the third-highest rate in the league. A power play built around Heiskanen, Jason Robertson and Mikko Rantanen that ranks third in expected goals will not stay 27th in actual goals.

The part that is not bad luck is five-on-five creation, and it is the same weakness Dallas carried through last season. The Stars rank 28th in expected goals for per 60 at five-on-five and 22nd in high-danger shot share. Tyler Seguin has 39 per cent of the expected goals when he is on the ice, and two depth defencemen, Lian Bichsel and Tyler Myers, are at 36 and 39. Glen Gulutzan, who earned his 200th coaching win in Chicago, has built a team that keeps the puck away from its own net. It has not yet shown it can take the puck to the other one.

Roope Hintz adds a small worry. He left the Chicago game with a hand injury after blocking a shot, then practised on Monday and played against Boston.

The case that Dallas is fine, stated fairly

The optimistic reading goes like this. The Stars have one player shooting three goals below expected and a power play converting far below its chances, and both of those correct on their own. When they do, Dallas scores more without changing anything. The defending is good, a 112-point team from last season is mostly intact, and a team that allows the fewest goals in the league with an average shooting record can afford a regression in net.

The pessimistic reading is five-on-five play, where Dallas was 22nd last season and now ranks 28th in creating chances. That is two years of evidence, and a .945 Oettinger is hiding it again.

Our view is that Johnston and the power play will bring more goals soon, and that is the good news. The five-on-five numbers are what decide a playoff series, and on those Dallas looks like a good team rather than a contender until something changes at even strength.

What to watch

Johnston's first goal, which should be soon, and the five-on-five expected goals for rate, which matters more. If Dallas climbs into the top half in chance creation while Oettinger settles near .915, the Stars are a genuine threat in the Central. If the attack stays bottom-five and the save percentage falls, the record will follow it. Every Stars number is on the team stats page, and the Central race is on the standings.