Utah MammothThe Penguins came home from a four-game western trip on Oct. 20 having lost all four, by a combined 21-11, in Chicago, Colorado, Vegas and Utah. Then they beat Florida 4-0 last Thursday and Nashville 3-2 in overtime on Saturday at PPG Paints Arena. They are 5-6-1, sixth in the Metropolitan, 4-1-0 at home and 1-5-1 on the road.
The record undersells them. Pittsburgh is one of the better five-on-five teams in the league by the chances it creates. What is unusual is where those chances are coming from. The depth players are winning their minutes comfortably. The players who are losing theirs are the top line of Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust, and Erik Karlsson.
Is Pittsburgh better than 5-6-1?
Yes. At five-on-five the Penguins have 53 per cent of the expected goals, ninth in the league, and create 2.98 expected goals per 60 minutes, sixth. Only Carolina, Washington, Utah, New Jersey and Tampa Bay create more. They have been outscored 28-27 at five-on-five anyway, because their five-on-five save percentage is .891, 27th, and they have finished 2.5 goals below their chances.
The goaltending is less of a disaster than we expected. In September we wrote that Pittsburgh let Stuart Skinner walk and kept a crease that was minus-15. Arturs Silovs, who was 11.9 goals below expected last season, is 1.7 above expected in eight games this season and shut out Florida last Thursday. That may not last, and the team's five-on-five save percentage is still poor, but he has not been the reason Pittsburgh is under .500. The road has. Four of the six regulation or extra-time road losses came on one trip with three games in four nights.
Where are the chances coming from?
Mostly not from the top of the lineup. Here is every Penguin with at least 80 five-on-five minutes, sorted by how much of the expected goals Pittsburgh gets with him on the ice.
| Pittsburgh, five-on-five, 2026-27 | Minutes per game | Expected goals share | Goals for-against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ville Koivunen | 11.9 | 64% | 9-6 |
| Hendrix Lapierre | 10.7 | 62% | 5-5 |
| Connor Dewar | 11.0 | 61% | 7-4 |
| Nick Robertson | 11.7 | 60% | 9-2 |
| Kaedan Korczak | 15.5 | 59% | 11-12 |
| Kris Letang | 17.1 | 58% | 5-4 |
| Samuel Girard | 16.4 | 57% | 8-11 |
| Blake Lizotte | 10.9 | 56% | 4-4 |
| Evgeni Malkin | 13.4 | 55% | 8-6 |
| Spencer Stastney | 17.0 | 55% | 5-3 |
| Declan Carlile | 15.8 | 53% | 11-14 |
| Ben Kindel | 11.8 | 49% | 4-8 |
| Andrei Kuzmenko | 11.3 | 49% | 2-5 |
| Tommy Novak | 12.7 | 49% | 4-7 |
| Egor Chinakhov | 13.3 | 47% | 3-4 |
| Rickard Rakell | 14.2 | 45% | 8-10 |
| Sidney Crosby | 14.6 | 44% | 9-12 |
| Erik Karlsson | 17.4 | 44% | 12-12 |
| Bryan Rust | 13.0 | 42% | 4-9 |
Nick Robertson has six goals, and Pittsburgh has outscored opponents 9-2 with him on the ice. Ville Koivunen and Hendrix Lapierre are both above 60 per cent. Connor Dewar and Blake Lizotte, a fourth-line pair, are winning their minutes. Evgeni Malkin is at 55 per cent with six goals in 11 games. On the back end the pairing of Samuel Girard and Kaedan Korczak has played 113 minutes together at 59 per cent, the most-used pair on the team.
At the bottom of the table are the first line and the team's most-used defenceman. Not every veteran is struggling. Malkin and Letang are both well above 50 per cent. This is about one line and one defenceman.
What is wrong with Crosby's line?
The line Dan Muse started the season with, Rakell and Bryan Rust on Crosby's wings, has played 63 minutes together at five-on-five with 46 per cent of the expected goals and has been outscored 5-3. When Robertson replaced Rust, the same line played 33 minutes at 62 per cent and outscored opponents 3-1.
Rust is now on injured reserve until at least Dec. 5, so the decision has been partly made for Muse. At Tuesday's practice he had Tommy Novak on Crosby's left, with Rakell on the right, and Robertson back on the fourth line with Dewar and Lizotte. On this season's numbers that is the wrong way round. Robertson is the forward who has made Crosby's line work, and Novak is at 49 per cent on his own.
Crosby himself has three goals and seven points in 12 games. Rakell has two goals on 30 shots and 4.6 individual expected goals, and none at five-on-five. Last season, the same group looked very different. Crosby was at 50 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals with a 58-47 goal margin, and Rakell was at 49. They did not dominate play then either, but Pittsburgh finished 19.7 goals above expected at five-on-five as a team, and a lot of that finishing was theirs.
And Karlsson?
Karlsson leads the team with 12 points and plays the most five-on-five minutes, 17.4 a night, but Pittsburgh has 44 per cent of the expected goals when he is on the ice. With Declan Carlile beside him it is 47 per cent over 106 minutes. With Spencer Stastney it is 41 per cent. When Stastney plays with Kris Letang instead, the pair is at 72 per cent over 52 minutes. Letang, at 58 per cent overall, is the defenceman the numbers like this season.
Karlsson was at 51 per cent last season, with a 73-53 goal margin at five-on-five that was among the best on the team. He is still the most productive offensive defenceman Pittsburgh has. He is also, on the evidence of 12 games, giving back more at the other end than he creates, and he is doing it in the most minutes on the roster.
The case for patience, stated fairly
The case for leaving things alone is that Crosby and Karlsson have been the Penguins' most important players for a long time, 12 games is a small sample, and the depth players' numbers are inflated by easier matchups. Robertson and Dewar are not playing against the other team's top line. Crosby and Karlsson are. A 44 per cent share against top competition is not the same as 44 per cent against fourth lines, and the shooting luck that carried Pittsburgh's top players last season could easily return.
The other side is that the gap is wide and it is consistent. The four players at the bottom of that table are the four who get the hardest minutes and the most trust, and the players winning their minutes include two veterans, Malkin and Letang, who are not being sheltered. When the same line with one change goes from 46 to 62 per cent, the coach has been handed a fairly clear answer.
Our view is that Muse should keep Robertson on Crosby's line now that Rust is out, protect Karlsson's minutes with a partner who can defend, and keep leaning on Girard and Korczak against top lines. Pittsburgh can be a playoff team in a soft Metropolitan without a trade if it gives its best minutes to the players who are winning them.
What to watch
Utah visits Pittsburgh on Thursday and the Penguins are in Montreal on Saturday. Utah is one of the three best five-on-five teams in the league, so Thursday is a useful test for whatever Muse does with the top line. Every Penguins number is on the team stats page, and the Metropolitan race is on the standings.