Vegas is 6-2 after beating Nashville 5-2 on Tuesday, tied for second in the league and a point behind Carolina. Jack Eichel has 13 points in eight games, Mitchell Marner has already won a game in overtime, and the Golden Knights have come back from three goals down to beat Toronto in a shootout.
It is tempting to look for what Vegas fixed over the summer. The more interesting answer is how little needed fixing. Last season the Golden Knights controlled games about as well as anyone and finished with 95 points because their goaltending was among the worst in the league. This season the skaters are doing the same thing and the goaltending has merely been average. That difference is most of the gap between a good team and a contender.
What went wrong for Vegas last season?
One thing, and it was in net. The Golden Knights took 54.4 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals in 2025-26, fourth in the league, and allowed the second-fewest shots of any team. Then their goaltenders gave away 16.5 goals more than an average group would have, 29th of 32.
Adin Hill was the heart of it, with an .871 save percentage and 14.2 goals below expected in 27 games. Every goaltender Vegas used finished below average. Using the usual rule of thumb that about six goals are worth a win, average goaltending alone would have added roughly six points. That was the problem we pointed to in August when we called Vegas the deepest team in hockey with a goaltending problem.
What is different this season?
Almost nothing at five-on-five, which is the point.
| Vegas | 2025-26 | 2026-27, eight games |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 expected goals share | 54.4% (4th) | 57.3% (5th) |
| 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 | 2.11 | 2.09 (5th) |
| Shots per game for / against | 29.0 / 24.4 | 30.8 / 24.9 |
| Goals saved above expected | -16.5 (29th) | +0.2 (19th) |
| Points | 95 | 12 in 8 games |
The skaters are a little better and the goaltending has moved from disastrous to neutral. Carter Hart has started five of the eight games with a .906 save percentage, 0.6 goals above expected, and Hill is at .901 in three. Neither has stolen a game. Neither has needed to.
How good is Eichel right now?
Eichel has four goals and nine assists, six of those points on the power play, and he is tied for third in the NHL in scoring behind Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard. He had 90 points in 74 games last season and 94 the year before. Behind him the scoring is spread: Tomas Hertl has four goals, Mark Stone eight points, and Victor Olofsson four goals in four games on shots worth barely one expected goal, which will not last.
Marner is the quieter story. He has two goals and five assists, a reasonable line, after a first season in Vegas that produced 80 points, 22 fewer than his last year in Toronto. His overtime winner against Los Angeles on Saturday was his first with the Golden Knights. The Vegas power play, with Eichel and Marner on it, is converting 23.3 per cent of its chances.
| Vegas forward | 2025-26 points | 2026-27 goals | 2026-27 points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eichel | 90 in 74 games | 4 | 13 |
| Stone | 73 in 60 games | 3 | 8 |
| Marner | 80 in 81 games | 2 | 7 |
| Hertl | 58 in 82 games | 4 | 7 |
Is Vegas a real Cup contender?
Yes, and it should be treated as one of the two or three best teams in the West. We included Vegas in the six realistic contenders last week on the strength of its five-on-five play, with the goaltending as the obvious caveat. Eight games of neutral goaltending is a small sample, but it is exactly the scenario the numbers suggested: hold the skaters steady, stop giving goals away, and the record jumps.
The catch is that Vegas has no margin in net. Hart is an average starter this season, Hill was among the league's worst goaltenders by expected goals last season, and the Golden Knights' 3-1 record in one-goal games could flip with a couple of bad nights. The roster is also older than most contenders, a concern we laid out in August when we called its spine aging, with a short runway.
The case against Vegas, stated fairly
The sceptical view goes like this. Eight games is nothing, two of the six wins needed overtime or a shootout, and Olofsson's hot start is pure finishing luck. The goaltending that has been average for eight games ranked 29th over 82 last season, with largely the same goaltenders. Hill and Hart both have long track records, and neither finished above average last season. If either regresses to last year, Vegas is a 95-point team again.
The other side is that the five-on-five numbers are not a hot streak. Vegas has been a top-five play-driving team for two seasons running, and play-driving holds up over a season far better than save percentage does. If the goaltending even finishes around average, this is a 105 to 110-point team with Eichel playing like a Hart candidate.
All Vegas ever needed was goaltending that stops losing it games, and so far it has that.
What to watch
Hart's save percentage over his next ten starts is the number that decides Vegas's season. If it stays near .905, the Golden Knights are a top-three seed. If it falls toward last season's .891, the old problem is back. Every Vegas number is on the team stats page, and the Pacific race is on the standings.