In July we warned that Montreal won 48 games getting out-chanced and should enjoy it while it lasted. Nine games into this season the Canadiens have flipped the problem around. They are one of the better five-on-five teams in the league by shot attempts and expected goals, and they are 4-3-2 because the puck keeps going in behind them.
Most of that has happened with Jakub Dobes in net. Montreal is 1-2-2 in his starts and 3-1 in Jacob Fowler's. Martin St. Louis went back to Dobes on Tuesday, and Montreal lost 4-3 in overtime to San Jose. The sample is small, but the decision in front of the Canadiens is not complicated.
How well are the Canadiens actually playing?
Well enough to deserve a better record than 4-3-2, which has them sixth in the Atlantic. At five-on-five Montreal has 56 per cent of the shot attempts, fifth in the league, and 53 per cent of the expected goals, ninth. It ranks eighth in expected goals for per 60 minutes. A year ago the Canadiens were winning games they were losing on the ice. This season the chance numbers have caught up to the standings.
| Montreal at five-on-five | 2026-27 | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shot attempt share | 56.0% | 5th |
| Expected goals share | 53.0% | 9th |
| Expected goals for per 60 | 2.80 | 8th |
| Expected goals against per 60 | 2.47 | 19th |
| Save percentage | .882 | 28th |
Montreal has allowed 34 goals in nine games. With league-average goaltending, the chances it has given up would have produced about 32 in all situations, and the gap is wider at five-on-five, where the save percentage ranks 28th.
What has gone wrong in the crease?
Samuel Montembeault hurt his leg at practice on October 7 and Montreal recalled Fowler from Laval that day. Montembeault has not played this season, and after a .872 save percentage in 25 games last season he was never going to be the answer anyway.
That left Dobes, who carried Montreal through much of last season with a 29-10-4 record and a .901 save percentage, and Fowler, who went 9-6-2 with a .908 as a 21-year-old rookie. The split since opening night is lopsided.
| Date | Opponent | Starter | Saves / shots | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 29 | at Toronto | Dobes | 25 / 27 | W 3-2 |
| Oct. 3 | at Pittsburgh | Dobes | 24 / 30 | OTL 5-6 |
| Oct. 6 | Carolina | Dobes | 28 / 33 | L 4-6 |
| Oct. 8 | Nashville | Fowler | 15 / 18 | L 2-5 |
| Oct. 10 | Detroit | Fowler | 30 / 30 | SOW 1-0 |
| Oct. 13 | Buffalo | Fowler | 13 / 16 | SOW 4-3 |
| Oct. 14 | at Washington | Dobes | 19 / 24 | L 4-5 |
| Oct. 17 | Buffalo | Fowler | 23 / 26 | OTW 4-3 |
| Oct. 20 | San Jose | Dobes | 26 / 30 | OTL 3-4 |
Dobes has stopped 122 of 144 shots, an .847 save percentage. MoneyPuck's model has him 5.8 goals below expected, the third-worst figure among goaltenders with three or more games. Fowler is at .900 with a shutout of Detroit and sits 2.1 goals above expected.
Nine games do not prove that Fowler is the better goaltender. They do show which one is giving Montreal a chance on the nights it outplays the other team, and right now that is Fowler.
Is the goaltending the only problem?
No. The power play has scored twice in 38 minutes, 31st in the league in goals per 60, and its chance creation ranks 28th, so this is not just bad finishing. For a team with Lane Hutson running the blue line at 26 minutes a night, Nick Suzuki at 12 points and Cole Caufield with six goals, it is hard to explain.
At even strength, the core is doing its job. Montreal has 60 per cent of the expected goals with Hutson on the ice and 56 with Suzuki. Phillip Danault is at 69 per cent. The exception is Noah Dobson, who is at 50 per cent and has been on the ice for nine five-on-five goals against and four for. We were wary of the Dobson contract in August, and nine games have not changed that view.
The case for sticking with Dobes, stated fairly
The argument for patience is a real one. Dobes started more games than anyone during the 106-point season, five bad starts are not a season, and a 21-year-old with 21 NHL games is not obviously ready to carry a team that expects to make the playoffs. Rotating the two also protects Fowler from a heavy workload in his first full season, and Dobes's career numbers before this month were steady.
The other side is that the goaltending is the biggest thing standing between Montreal and a strong start, and both goaltenders are young enough that the job should go to whoever is stopping the puck now. Fowler is, and he was also the better of the two by save percentage last season.
Montreal should give Fowler the net and the next run of starts, use Dobes as a true 1B rather than a straight rotation, and treat Montembeault's return as a trade opportunity rather than a third option.
What to watch
The next five starts. If St. Louis keeps rotating and Dobes stays below .880, Montreal will keep wasting good nights at five-on-five. The power play is the second thing to watch, because a team this good at even strength should not sit 31st with the man advantage. Every Canadiens number is on the team stats page, and the Atlantic race is on the standings.