Tested: The Thanksgiving Playoff Rule Holds About Three Times in Four

Every autumn somebody says it, and this week it was Kings fans after an 8-4 loss in Denver: a team in a playoff spot by mid-November makes the playoffs about 75 per cent of the time, so relax until then. It is one of those lines that sounds like it came from a study nobody can find.

So we ran the study. Pucky holds the result of every regular-season game in its records, and for most modern seasons that includes whether it went to overtime, which is what you need to rebuild the standings exactly as they stood on any date. The rule mostly survives. What it gets wrong is more useful than what it gets right.

How was this tested?

We rebuilt the standings on several dates in each of nine seasons: 2013-14 through 2018-19, 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2025-26. Those are the seasons since the current conference alignment where Pucky's game records include overtime and shootout results, which decide loser points. 2019-20 and 2020-21 are excluded because neither had a normal playoff format. 2023-24 and 2024-25 are excluded because our records for those seasons do not yet flag overtime games, and guessing would bend the standings.

"In a playoff spot" means top eight in the conference by points, with fewer games played breaking ties. That is a slight simplification of the wild-card format, which guarantees the top three in each division and can occasionally swap one team in or out. Then we checked who actually played in April.

Does the rule hold?

Close enough. On 15 November, 73.3 per cent of teams in a spot went on to make the playoffs. By 27 November, roughly US Thanksgiving, the figure is 77.7 per cent. The 75 per cent rule of thumb sits right between the two.

The curve is the interesting part. It climbs fast through November and then flattens. A team in a spot on 15 December is barely more likely to finish there than a team in a spot on 27 November. Late November is roughly where the standings stop telling you new things for a while.

Is being in a spot the thing that matters?

Less than the distance from it, and this is where the rule as people say it is too blunt. Here is every team on 27 November, grouped by how far it was above or below the eighth-place team in its conference.

A small cushion of one to five points made it about three times in four. Level with eighth or up to two back is a coin flip. Six clear is close to certain. A team six back is close to finished: two of 46 teams made it from there.

So a sharper version of the rule goes like this. By late November, a gap of six points either way is nearly decisive, and anything inside three points is still open.

Who broke the rule?

The comebacks are rare enough to name.

Buffalo is the one worth sitting with. On 27 November last season the Sabres were dead last in the Eastern Conference, with 22 points from 23 games. They then won 22 of their next 30 games, through the end of January, and took the division. Anyone writing them off that week had history on their side and was still wrong.

The collapses are just as instructive.

Montreal's 2015-16 collapse is the extreme case: 12 points clear of eighth place on 27 November and out of the playoffs by April. St. Louis managed both ends of the table in back-to-back seasons, first in the West and missing in 2017-18, then 14th and lifting the Cup in 2018-19.

Last season's East is a warning about bunched standings. On 27 November eleven teams sat within four points of each other, from New Jersey on 31 down to Detroit on 27. Seven of the eleven made it. When the table is that compressed, being in a spot is close to meaningless, and the 2025-26 final standings bear that out.

Does the 84-game schedule change anything?

A little. Every team now plays two more games, which adds a little runway for a team chasing from behind and a little more room for a leader to wobble. We covered why the extra games matter less than people think in our look at the 84-game schedule. Two games is about two to four points of possible movement, which nudges the thresholds above rather than rewriting them.

What does it mean for the Kings?

Los Angeles was tied for fifth in the West on 27 November last season, one point clear with 28 points from 23 games, and made it. That sat in the 73 per cent band.

This season, the opener tells you nothing. Judge the Kings on 27 November by the gap, not the line. Within two points of eighth, it is a coin flip. Three to five back, about one in four. Six or more back, start reading our Kings cap space piece instead.

The case against the rule, stated fairly

In its defence, it is roughly right. Teams in a spot on 15 November made it 73 per cent of the time and teams in a spot on 27 November made it 78 per cent of the time. For a line said on a broadcast with no footnotes, that is better than most hockey folklore.

Against it, the rule throws away the most useful information, which is the size of the gap. It treats a team one point clear and a team one point back as opposites, when both are still in a genuine race, and a 12-point lead has still collapsed. The sample is also nine seasons, with a top-eight simplification of the wild-card format and two recent seasons missing from our records.

Keep the rule, but say it properly. By late November, six points either way is close to decisive and anything inside three is still a race.

What it means

Three in four is a fair summary, and the folk wisdom deserves some credit for landing on it. But the version worth using in a group chat is sharper: look at the gap, not the line, and look at it on 27 November, not 4 October. You can follow it on the live standings as it develops.

The teams that broke the rule had one thing in common. They were close enough to the line in late November, or good enough underneath, that the table was lying about them. That is a better question to ask of any team in November than where it currently sits.