Vancouver Canucks
Anaheim DucksEdmonton is 3-0-1 and has scored 22 goals in four games, more than any team in the league. Connor McDavid has 12 points. Evan Bouchard has six goals and 11 points, which is how a defenceman becomes an early Norris favourite in the first week of October. The Oilers won 5-2 in Anaheim on Tuesday with Bouchard scoring twice.
None of that will decide how the Edmonton season ends. In September the Oilers went into the year with three goaltenders and a plan that leaned on all of them. Four games in, one is on injured reserve until at least the end of December, one has not played since opening night, and the third is the goaltender Buffalo gave up on.
How has Edmonton's goaltending done?
Badly, as a group. The Oilers have allowed 16 goals on 9.8 expected, 6.2 more than an average goaltender would have conceded, which ranks 30th. Only Vancouver and Los Angeles have lost more goals in goal.
| Game | Result | Goaltender | Shots | Goals against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver, home | Lost 6-5, OT | Tristan Jarry | 23 | 6 |
| At Vancouver | Won 9-7 | Devon Levi | 22 | 7 |
| Seattle, home | Won 3-1 | Levi | 20 | 1 |
| At Anaheim | Won 5-2 | Levi | 30 | 2 |
Jarry allowed six goals on 23 shots in the opener, 4.0 more than expected, and has not started since. Frederik Andersen, brought in to share the net at 37, is on injured reserve with a knee injury and is not expected back before 30 December. That leaves Levi, who has started three straight. He was shelled in Vancouver and then stopped 47 of 50 against Seattle and Anaheim.
This is the scenario we described in September, when Edmonton created more chances than every Western team except Colorado and Anaheim and lost 18 goals in its own net. Jarry was 4.1 goals below expected in 33 games last season, 19 of them for Edmonton after a midseason trade from Pittsburgh. The team as a whole was 7.8 below, 25th.
How is Edmonton winning anyway?
By scoring at a rate it cannot keep up. The Oilers have scored 22 goals on 13.7 expected, 8.3 above, tied with Vancouver for the most in the league. Their five-on-five play is good, 56.1 per cent of the expected goals, but the scoring is running well ahead of it.
| Oiler, 2026-27 | Goals | Points | Expected goals | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McDavid | 3 | 12 | 1.36 | 8 |
| Bouchard | 6 | 11 | 0.78 | 17 |
| Leon Draisaitl | 3 | 9 | 2.91 | 18 |
| Vasily Podkolzin | 4 | 6 | 3.06 | 16 |
Bouchard is the clearest case. Six goals from shots worth 0.78 expected goals is a 35 per cent conversion rate on 17 shots. He is a genuinely dangerous shooter, and we looked last week at the five-point night that Edmonton still lost. But no defenceman sustains this. Draisaitl and Podkolzin are scoring roughly in line with their chances, which is the healthier sign.
What should Edmonton do?
Ride Levi while he is hot and find a real starter before the deadline, not after another April exit. Levi is 24 and his last two starts were excellent, but he has 50-odd shots of recent form behind him, not a season. Jarry needs to get back into the rotation soon, because a team with Cup expectations cannot run one goaltender into the ground until Andersen returns at the turn of the year.
Edmonton is one of the six teams a popular history test names as a realistic Cup contender, and on skaters it deserves the spot. The crease is the reason it has not won one.
The case for Edmonton's crease, stated fairly
The best version of the defence goes like this. Four games is nothing for a goaltender, and the team-wide figure is dragged down by two wild games against Vancouver that ended 6-5 and 9-7. Levi has allowed three goals in his last two starts, the Oilers are 3-0-1, and a team that controls 56 per cent of the five-on-five chances does not need elite goaltending, only average goaltending. Andersen will be back for the second half of the season.
The other side is that average goaltending is exactly what Edmonton has failed to get for years. Last season's group was 7.8 goals below expected, this season's is 6.2 below after four games, and the plan built on three goaltenders is already down to one. The scoring that covers it now will slow down, Bouchard's above all.
Edmonton can win the regular season with this crease. It has reached two Cup Finals with goaltending like this and lost both.
What to watch
Levi's next five starts, and whether Jarry gets one. If Levi stays above .900 through October, Edmonton has a goaltender. If not, the trade market for a starter will open early. Every Oilers goaltending number is on the team stats page, and the latest on Andersen is on the injuries page.