Vancouver CanucksThe Hurricanes beat Vancouver 6-3 on Tuesday and are 8-2-1, top of the NHL with 17 points. They have done it without Seth Jarvis, who scored 32 goals last season and has not played after shoulder surgery. Jordan Staal has played six of the 11 games and is out with a calf injury. Taylor Hall has missed three games with an upper-body injury, and Mark Jankowski went home from Calgary hurt on Sunday.
A depleted champion sitting first would usually mean a team riding its goaltender or its shooting. Carolina is doing the opposite. Its save percentage and shooting percentage at five-on-five both rank in the bottom third of the league, and it is first anyway, because nobody is controlling games the way the Hurricanes are.
How dominant has Carolina been?
At five-on-five, Carolina has 60 per cent of the shot attempts and 59 per cent of the expected goals, second in the league on both. It ranks second in expected goals for per 60 minutes. Opponents have managed 22.5 shots a game.
| Carolina at five-on-five | 2026-27 | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shot attempt share | 60.0% | 2nd |
| Expected goals share | 59.0% | 2nd |
| Expected goals for per 60 | 3.27 | 2nd |
| Expected goals against per 60 | 2.31 | 10th |
| Shooting percentage | 8.9% | 22nd |
| Save percentage | .888 | 25th |
The bottom two rows are the important ones. Carolina's shooters are converting less often than most teams and its goaltenders are stopping less than most. A team with those percentages is usually around .500. The Hurricanes are 8-2-1 because the share of play is so lopsided that average luck is not required.
The special teams have added to it. The power play has scored nine times and drawn the third-most minutes in the league, and the penalty kill has allowed three goals in 54 minutes, fifth by rate.
Who is carrying the forwards?
Sebastian Aho, as usual. He has six goals and 14 points, and Carolina has 64 per cent of the expected goals when he is on the ice. We called him the champions' engine in August, and with Staal and Jarvis out he has carried even more of the load. Andrei Svechnikov has six goals of his own and the same 64 per cent share. Logan Stankoven has four goals and is driving 61 per cent.
The one forward the numbers say is due is Jackson Blake. He has one goal on 27 shots, and his chances have been worth 4.3 expected goals.
On the back end, Jaccob Slavin and Shayne Gostisbehere are both at 63 per cent. K'Andre Miller plays the most, more than 22 minutes a night, and has 56 per cent of the expected goals but has been on the ice for nine five-on-five goals against and five for. Most of that gap is down to the saves behind him.
What about the goaltending?
It has been ordinary and split almost evenly. Pyotr Kochetkov has won all six of his starts with a .900 save percentage. Brandon Bussi, who went 31-6-2 last season, is 2-2-1 with an .882 and lost 1-0 in overtime to Florida on opening night despite stopping 19 of 20.
| Carolina goaltender | Starts | Record | Saves / shots | Save % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov | 6 | 6-0-0 | 108 / 120 | .900 |
| Brandon Bussi | 5 | 2-2-1 | 112 / 127 | .882 |
Neither is stealing games. Carolina does not need them to, because neither faces enough shots for a bad night to matter much. Kochetkov has averaged 20 shots a start.
What happens when the injured players come back?
The team gets better, and that should worry the rest of the league. Jarvis was expected to miss four to six months after surgery in June and is running well ahead of that. He has been travelling with the team on this five-game western trip, and Rod Brind'Amour said he expects Jarvis to play on it once he is cleared. Hall is week to week. Staal will take longer.
We argued in August that Jarvis was why the champions might get better. The Hurricanes have now spent 11 games proving the depth around him, and the percentages have not even started to help.
The case against Carolina, stated fairly
The doubt is the same one that follows the Hurricanes every year. They dominate the shot counts and still need to finish, and when the shooting dries up in the playoffs, a team that wins on volume can look ordinary. This year's version also has two goaltenders sitting at .900 and .882 and no obvious star in net. Carolina won the Cup last spring, but that run does not prove the goaltending will hold up again.
The other side is that the regular season is where volume wins, and nothing in the first 11 games suggests a fade. A team that is first with bottom-third percentages has more room to improve than any team chasing it.
Our view is that Carolina is the best team in the league right now by a clearer margin than the standings show, and it will be better again once Jarvis plays.
What to watch
Jarvis's first game, which could come before this trip ends, and the five-on-five save percentage, which should move toward .910 on its own. The goals Blake has been missing are coming too. Every Hurricanes number is on the team stats page, and the Metropolitan race is on the standings.