Anaheim DucksBuffalo won 2-0 in San Jose on Tuesday, and the goal that won it came from Olen Zellweger, one of the defencemen Anaheim sold in June. Colten Ellis got the shutout. It ended a three-game run without a win, two of those losses in overtime, and it lifted the Sabres to 5-4-3.
That record looks like a team treading water, and at five-on-five that is a fair description. Buffalo has been about level with its opponents at full strength. It is the other ten minutes a night that have sunk it. The Sabres have the worst power play in the league by success rate, a penalty kill that allows chances at the third-worst rate, and a special-teams goal difference of minus-seven after 12 games.
Did anyone see the drop coming?
Some of it, yes. In early October we argued that Buffalo's 96.5-point total was about right for the wrong reason. The Sabres won the Atlantic with 109 points last season as a 50 per cent five-on-five team, carried by finishing that was 23 goals above expected and goaltending that was 24.5 goals above expected, fifth in the league. Neither of those was likely to repeat, and neither has.
| Buffalo | 2025-26 | 2026-27 |
|---|---|---|
| Five-on-five expected goals share | 50.0% | 51.0% |
| Five-on-five goals above expected | +23.0 | -3.0 |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected | +24.5 | -0.9 |
| Power-play goals per 60 | 7.21 | 3.92 |
| Goals allowed per 60, four-on-five | 5.91 | 12.32 |
The first three rows are the regression we expected. The shape of the team at five-on-five is almost exactly what it was, and the luck that turned a 50 per cent team into a division winner is gone. The last two rows are new. Last season Buffalo's power play was 16th in goals per 60 and its penalty kill was third. This season they are 29th and 26th.
How bad is the power play?
Bad in a way that goes beyond bounces. Buffalo has scored four power-play goals in 61.3 minutes at five-on-four, and it is the only team in the league converting fewer than one chance in ten. A league-average power play would have scored seven or eight goals in the same time.
The chances are the real issue. The Sabres generate 6.51 expected goals per 60 on the power play, 24th in the league and well below the league rate of 7.61. Some power plays score poorly while creating plenty and are due a correction. This one is not creating enough to score much even with average finishing.
| Buffalo five-on-four, 2026-27 | Minutes | Goals | Assists | Individual expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Quinn | 43.0 | 0 | 3 | 1.6 |
| Tage Thompson | 40.6 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 |
| Noah Ostlund | 40.6 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Zach Benson | 40.6 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 29.5 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 |
| Owen Power | 27.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 |
Jack Quinn leads the team in power-play minutes and is still looking for his first goal with the man advantage. Tage Thompson, who has 51 shots in 12 games across all situations and is one of the most dangerous shooters in the league, has 0.9 expected goals in 40 minutes on the power play. That is the number that should worry Lindy Ruff most. A unit that has Thompson's shot and is not getting it from good ice is a unit with a structure problem. Ruff said in early October that the Sabres had changed how they were running it. Three weeks later the results have not moved.
Rasmus Dahlin missed three games after an upper-body injury against Florida, and Owen Power has covered with 27.6 power-play minutes, two shots on goal and 0.1 expected goals. Dahlin is the one Buffalo defenceman whose shot changes how a penalty kill sets up. The power play needs him on the top unit every night.
And the penalty kill?
The penalty kill has allowed 12 power-play goals, the same number Buffalo has scored on the power play three times over. At four-on-five it is allowing 9.73 expected goals per 60, 30th in the league, ahead of only San Jose and Vancouver. The goaltending has not helped, at .796 when shorthanded, but this is mostly about what the Sabres are giving up.
The injury list explains part of it. Matt Grzelcyk, Conor Timmins and Jack Rathbone are all on injured reserve, Dahlin missed three games, and a blue line that was third in the league at killing penalties last season has been rebuilt on the fly. Buffalo has spent 53.6 minutes shorthanded, fewer than most teams, so the issue is the quality of the kill rather than how often Buffalo needs it.
Is the crease part of it?
At five-on-five, yes. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has started nine of the 12 games and has a .868 save percentage at five-on-five, 4.2 goals below expected. Ellis has started three, with a .935 five-on-five save percentage and 3.7 goals above expected. The Sabres are 3-3-3 when Luukkonen starts and 2-1-0 when Ellis does.
| Buffalo goaltending, 2026-27 | Starts | Record | Save %, all situations | Goals saved above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 9 | 3-3-3 | .866 | -3.6 |
| Colten Ellis | 3 | 2-1-0 | .902 | +3.2 |
Three starts is far too few to call Ellis the better goaltender, and Luukkonen was 10.5 goals above expected in 35 games last season. But Buffalo's best goaltender last year was Alex Lyon, at 12.6 above expected in 36 games, and Lyon is on injured reserve until at least Saturday. Until he is back, the Sabres should ride whichever of the other two is stopping the puck, and right now that is Ellis.
Who has been good?
Zach Benson, and he has almost nothing to show for it. Buffalo has 65 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals with Benson on the ice and has outscored opponents 10-4 in his minutes. He has one goal from 26 shots and 5.5 individual expected goals across all situations, the biggest gap between chances and goals on the team. Quinn has six goals and 11 points and is at 56 per cent. Power is playing 26.8 minutes a night, third-most among NHL defencemen, at 56 per cent. The core of the five-on-five team is fine.
The case for patience, stated fairly
The case for calm is that Buffalo has been here before. Last season it was last in the East in late November and won the division. The five-on-five team is about as good as it was, the scorer most likely to break out is Benson, and Grzelcyk, Timmins and Rathbone are all listed to return by Nov. 8. Power plays with this much skill rarely stay at 9.8 per cent for a season.
The other side is that the parts of last season that won the division were finishing and goaltending well above expected, and those are gone. What is left is a 51 per cent team, and a 51 per cent team that loses the special-teams battle by seven goals every 12 games is a team that finishes around 90 points. Buffalo's current pace is 91.
Our view is that the power play is the one thing Ruff can change this week. Keep Dahlin on the top unit with Thompson, try Benson's five-on-five line together as a second unit, and accept a few weeks of new looks rather than the same set-up that has scored four times in 12 games. In the crease, start Ellis until Lyon is healthy.
What to watch
Buffalo is in Anaheim on Thursday and Los Angeles on Saturday. Anaheim has scored nine power-play goals and allowed 11 in 12 games, so Thursday is a fair test of whether this power play can create anything against an average kill. Every Sabres number is on the team stats page, and the Atlantic race is on the standings.