Connor Bedard missed the first six games of the season, and the Blackhawks went 1-5 without him. Since he came back they are 2-1, with a 5-3 win over Pittsburgh and a 4-3 overtime win over Winnipeg in which he scored his first goal of the season. Chicago Hockey Now reports the club has also settled on Bedard as its next captain. On the surface, the season started when he walked back in.
The numbers say something less comfortable. Chicago is 3-6 and has 40 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals, 30th in the league. With Bedard in the lineup the Blackhawks score a little more. They give up just as much, and that is the part of this rebuild that has not moved in two years.
How different is Chicago with Bedard?
Better at one end and the same at the other. In the six games without him, Chicago scored 12 goals and allowed 26. In the three games with him, it scored nine and allowed 10. That looks like a transformation until you check the shot counts.
| Chicago, 2026-27 | Games | Record | Goals for / against | Shots for per game | Shots against per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Without Bedard | 6 | 1-5 | 12 / 26 | 20.8 | 30.2 |
| With Bedard | 3 | 2-1 | 9 / 10 | 22.3 | 31.3 |
With Bedard, the Blackhawks take about one and a half more shots a game. They also allow about one more. The goal gap closed mostly because the team stopped losing games like the 6-0 loss in Utah and the 5-2 loss to Carolina, where Chicago was outshot 39 to 26. Three games is a tiny sample, and Bedard has been on the ice for 46 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals in that time, which is better than almost anyone on the roster. He is helping. He is not changing what kind of team this is.
The 4-0 loss to Dallas on Saturday was the clearest example. Bedard played more than 20 minutes, Chicago was outshot 33 to 19, and the Blackhawks were shut out for the second time this season.
Is the defence the real problem?
Yes, and it was last season as well. Chicago allows 3.04 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, 29th in the league. It allows 30.6 shots a game. It wins 38 per cent of the high-danger shots, 27th. Last season it was 32nd in expected goals against per 60 and 32nd in expected goals share. The rate has got worse, not better.
| Chicago at five-on-five | 2025-26 | 2026-27 |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 42.4% (32nd) | 40.4% (30th) |
| Expected goals against per 60 | 2.94 (32nd) | 3.04 (29th) |
| Expected goals for per 60 | 2.17 (31st) | 2.06 (30th) |
The blue line is where it shows. Every regular Chicago defenceman is under water at five-on-five, and most of them badly. Artyom Levshunov leads the team in five-on-five minutes and is at 46 per cent. Ian Cole is at 47. After that it falls away. Wyatt Kaiser is at 39, Sam Rinzel at 40 and Alex Vlasic at 36.
Then there is Bowen Byram. He has played six games, averages almost 25 minutes a night in all situations, the most on the team, and Chicago has 38 per cent of the expected goals when he is on the ice at five-on-five. He is minus-7. We said in August that Chicago had bought Byram's reputation rather than his results, and six games have done nothing to change that view.
What about Spencer Knight?
We argued in August that Chicago had quietly solved its goaltending, and Knight's start gives that view a test. He has an .888 save percentage in seven starts and is 1.0 goal below expected. Last season he was 10.9 goals better than expected over 54 games at .902.
| Spencer Knight | Games | Save % | Goals saved above expected | Shots faced per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 54 | .902 | +10.9 | 28.7 |
| 2026-27 | 7 | .888 | -1.0 | 31.9 |
The honest reading is that Knight has gone from stealing games to being ordinary, and that ordinary is not enough behind this defence. He is facing 31.9 shots a game, up from 28.7, and chances worth 24 goals in seven starts. Arvid Soderblom has been worse, with an .820 in two starts, including the 6-0 loss in Utah. The goaltending is not why Chicago is 3-6. It just is not hiding the problem any more.
Where does that leave the forwards?
Thin at the top and ageing in the middle of the lineup. Rookie Anton Frondell leads the team with six points. Frank Nazar has three goals in seven games and is at 46 per cent, which makes the case we made for him in August look about right, a useful piece on a team still missing most of the puzzle.
The veterans have struggled. Patrick Kane, back in Chicago, has a goal and four assists in nine games and plays more than 19 minutes a night. At five-on-five the Blackhawks have been outscored 11-2 with him on the ice and have 35 per cent of the expected goals, and he is minus-11. Tyler Bertuzzi is at 38 per cent. The forwards who are holding their own are depth players, Ryan Greene at 51 per cent and Jordan Greenway at 50.
Special teams have not helped. The power play is converting 12.5 per cent of the time and the penalty kill 74.1 per cent, and Chicago has scored 21 goals in nine games while allowing 36.
The case for patience, stated fairly
The argument for calm is real. Bedard has played three games and the team is 2-1 with him. Frondell, Nazar, Levshunov and Rinzel are all young, and young defencemen get caved in before they get good. Chicago's points have climbed from 52 to 61 to 72 over the last three seasons, and a nine-game sample in October is not where anyone should judge a rebuild.
The other side is that the problem in front of the net has been the same for two seasons running. Chicago was last in the league in expected goals against per 60 last season and is 29th now. Bedard's return has not changed the shot counts, the goaltending that covered for it last year has come back to average, and the defenceman Chicago paid the most to bring in is the one getting hurt the worst.
Our view is that Chicago is still a 70-point team, and that the next step has nothing to do with Bedard. Levshunov should be on the top pair and playing the most minutes, Byram's role should shrink until his numbers earn it back, and the next significant addition has to be a defenceman who moves the puck out of the zone, not another veteran forward.
What to watch
The homestand continues against Montreal on Saturday and Florida on Sunday. The number that matters is shots against. If it stays above 30 a game with Bedard in the lineup, the record will follow it down, whatever he scores. The second is Levshunov's minutes compared with Byram's. Every Blackhawks number is on the team stats page, and the Central race is on the standings.