The Panthers beat Chicago 5-3 on Wednesday, their fourth win in five games, and are 9-5-2. They have done it almost entirely without their captain. Aleksander Barkov has played two games and is on injured reserve with a knee injury until at least Nov. 27, and Brad Marchand, also out with a knee injury, has played two and is out until at least Nov. 21.
In October we argued that Florida did not belong among the six real Cup contenders, because it was 19th at five-on-five last season and its goaltending had slipped. Half of that has changed. Barkov missed all of last season too, so this is a fair comparison, and Florida has turned into one of the best defensive teams in the league. The part still missing is the part Barkov provides.
How much better is the defence?
A lot. Last season Florida allowed 2.56 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, 21st in the league. This season it allows 2.02, second only to New Jersey. The share has gone from 49 per cent to 54.
| Florida, five-on-five | 2025-26 | 2026-27 |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 49% | 54% (tied 6th) |
| Expected goals allowed per 60 | 2.56 (21st) | 2.02 (2nd) |
| Expected goals created per 60 | 2.48 (16th) | 2.33 (21st) |
Seth Jones has been the anchor. He plays 24.8 minutes a night, has 19 points, and he and Niko Mikkola are at 56 per cent and have outscored opponents 11-5 over 214 minutes. Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling are at 62 per cent, though they have been outscored 12-7.
Then why is the offence 21st?
Because two of the players who drive it are out. Florida creates 2.33 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five, a drop from last season and 21st in the league. Sam Reinhart has nine goals on 9.9 individual expected goals, the third-most in the NHL, and Carter Verhaeghe has nine as well. After them the chances thin out quickly.
Reinhart is worth a correction of our own. In early October we wrote that Florida was moving the wrong player to centre, because Reinhart had created almost nothing in his first 41 minutes there. Since then he has created chances at one of the highest rates in the league, and his line with Sandis Vilmanis and Verhaeghe is at 64 per cent and 5-1 in goals. The move has worked.
The newest Tkachuk has helped. Brady Tkachuk, who came from Ottawa, has eight goals, and his line with Sam Bennett and his brother Matthew Tkachuk is at 60 per cent over 111 minutes and 8-6 in goals. Matthew leads the team with 22 points.
The power play is where the scoring has held up. Florida creates the second-most chances in the league at five-on-four and converts 23.9 per cent of the time, ninth.
And the goaltending?
Average, which is an improvement. Sergei Bobrovsky, now in Toronto, was 12.2 goals below expected last season. This season Jacob Markstrom and Akira Schmid have split the starts and are both within half a goal of average. Florida's five-on-five save percentage is .889, near the bottom of the league, so there is still room to improve, but the crease is no longer costing it games the way it did last season.
The case for patience, stated fairly
The case for Florida is easy to make from the numbers. A team that allows the second-fewest chances in the league, without its captain, is going to win a lot of games once Barkov and Marchand return and the offence gets its two best playmakers back. It has a top-ten power play and a penalty kill that ranks sixth.
The other side is that Barkov is 31, coming back from a serious knee injury, and Florida has scored only 26 goals at five-on-five in 16 games. If the offence does not recover when he does, this is a good defensive team that wins low-scoring games and not much more.
Our view is that we were too quick to leave Florida out in October. The defence is contender quality. Whether the team is depends on how Barkov looks in December.
What to watch
Florida plays in Washington on Saturday and in Boston on Sunday, against a Bruins team second in the East. Watch the five-on-five chances created, because that is the number that has to rise. Every Panthers number is on the team stats page, and the Atlantic race is on the standings.