The Jets lost 7-0 in Carolina on Sunday. It was their ninth game in a row without a win, 0-7-2 over that stretch, and it left them 4-8-3. On Oct. 23 they traded Connor Hellebuyck to New Jersey for a package led by Dawson Mercer and Nico Daws, with two more players and two draft picks.
The goaltending change is the obvious explanation for the slide. The numbers point somewhere else. Josh Morrissey hurt his wrist on Oct. 7 and is on injured reserve until at least Nov. 5. Winnipeg was 3-0-1 with him. It is 1-8-2 since.
Is the goaltending the problem?
Not really. Stuart Skinner has an .887 save percentage, which looks poor, but he is 1.9 goals above expected, and at five-on-five he is at .906. As a team Winnipeg's goaltenders are stopping 90.8 per cent of shots at five-on-five, tenth in the league. A team that trades a Vezina winner usually gets worse in goal. Winnipeg's goaltending has been fine. Its problem is what happens in front of it.
In mid-October we wrote that Winnipeg was 4-1-1 without Hellebuyck and that it changed less than it seemed. That turned out to be right in a way we did not intend. The goaltending held up, and the team fell apart anyway.
So what is broken?
The penalty kill first. Winnipeg allows 11.71 expected goals per 60 minutes when shorthanded, the most in the NHL. The power play ranks 28th. A team that loses the special-teams battle that badly every night needs to win at five-on-five, and Winnipeg does not. It has 46 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals, 25th.
Morrissey is the reason those two things are connected. In a normal season he plays the most minutes on Winnipeg's blue line, in every situation. Without him, every defenceman is playing a role one step above where he should be.
Who is still scoring?
Kyle Connor has 11 goals and is doing his job. Two of his top-six teammates are not finishing. Mark Scheifele has two goals on chances worth 5.6, and Gabriel Vilardi has one goal on 4.6.
| Winnipeg forwards, 2026-27 | Goals | Individual expected goals |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele | 2 | 5.6 |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 1 | 4.6 |
Scheifele and Vilardi are getting to the right places. More than ten goals' worth of chances have produced three. That will turn around, and when it does Winnipeg will score more than it has. It will not fix the penalty kill.
The case for patience, stated fairly
The case for patience is strong here. Morrissey is due back soon, the goaltending is above average, and two of the team's best forwards are shooting well below what their chances deserve. Those are three things that tend to correct, and a team with Connor scoring at this rate should not stay this far down for long. The Hellebuyck trade also brought back real pieces for the future.
The other side is that 4-8-3 is a deep hole in November, and that Winnipeg's 3-0-1 start with Morrissey came in four games, which is a small sample. A healthy Morrissey makes this a better team. It may not make it a playoff team.
Our view is that Scott Arniel should not change the goaltending, which is the part that works, and should treat the penalty kill as the priority until Morrissey returns. If Scheifele and Vilardi start finishing at their usual rates, the losing streak ends on its own.
What to watch
Winnipeg plays in Montreal on Tuesday and is home to Vancouver on Thursday. Watch Morrissey's status and the shorthanded chances against. Every Jets number is on the team stats page, and the Central race is on the standings.