Wyatt Johnston scored 45 goals last season. Fifteen games into this one he has three. His shots add up to 8.3 expected goals, so he is 5.3 goals below what his chances were worth. No player in the NHL has a bigger gap.
In August we argued that the fluke police had the wrong guy, and that Johnston's 45 goals were built on the chances he created. The numbers this season back that up in an odd way. The chances are still there, and the goals have not followed.
Is Johnston actually playing badly?
No. He is still getting to the dangerous areas, and his 8.3 expected goals rank 19th among all skaters. Dallas has 56 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals with him on the ice and has outscored opponents 9-6. He has 13 assists, so he is involved in the offence. He is just not finishing it.
He has 41 shots on goal this season and has scored on 7.3 per cent of them. Last season he scored 45 goals on 35.9 expected, which made him one of the better finishers in the league. A player does not lose that touch in a summer.
| Wyatt Johnston | Games | Goals | Expected goals | Goals minus expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 45 | 35.9 | +9.1 |
| 2026-27 | 15 | 3 | 8.3 | -5.3 |
How much is it costing Dallas?
More than it looks. The Stars are 10-5-2, but they have scored only 48 goals, among the ten lowest totals in the league. At five-on-five they create 2.28 expected goals per 60 minutes, 26th, and take the sixth-fewest shots. A team that creates that little needs its best shooters to finish, and one of its two 45-goal scorers from last season is converting at a third of his usual rate.
Mikko Rantanen has nine goals and 21 points, and Jason Robertson has nine, including a hat trick in Washington last week. Roope Hintz has seven. After them, the scoring thins out quickly.
Then how is Dallas winning?
Special teams, and in a way that should worry opponents. Dallas allows fewer chances on the penalty kill than any team in the league and has given up only four power-play goals at four-on-five. Its penalty kill is tied for first at 89.7 per cent.
The power play is even more interesting. Dallas creates more chances at five-on-four than any team in the league, and has turned them into nine goals, shooting 15.5 per cent, 16th. That is a power play doing everything right except finishing, which is the same story as Johnston. He has one power-play goal.
| Dallas special teams, 2026-27 | Chances rank | Goals | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power play | 1st | 9 | 27.5%, 7th |
| Penalty kill | 1st | 4 against | 89.7%, tied 1st |
The case for patience, stated fairly
The case for patience is about as strong as these get. Johnston is creating chances at a top-20 rate, he was one of the league's best finishers last season, and the gap between his goals and his expected goals is the kind that closes on its own. Dallas's power play is creating more than anyone. When Johnston's shots start going in, the Stars' scoring problem shrinks with them.
The other side is that Dallas has a five-on-five problem that Johnston alone does not fix. The Stars are 26th in chances created at five-on-five, and Tyler Seguin and Sam Steel's minutes are being out-chanced. Even a hot Johnston would leave Dallas near the bottom of the league in five-on-five offence.
Our view is that Dallas should leave Johnston exactly where he is, in top-six minutes and on the power play. Fifteen games of bad finishing from a 45-goal scorer is noise. The bigger question for Dallas is a second line that creates more at even strength.
What to watch
Dallas is home to Winnipeg on Thursday, Buffalo on Saturday and Florida on Sunday. Watch Johnston's shot count and the power play's conversion, because both should move together. Every Stars number is on the team stats page, and the Central race is on the standings.