Connor McDavid has 37 points in 14 games and a point in every one of them. Sportsnet's Mark Spector noted that he is the first player since Mario Lemieux in 1992-93 to put up 35 points in a calendar month. The Oilers are 10-2-2 and lead the Western Conference, and Tristan Jarry finished October with two straight shutouts, 24 saves against Calgary and 18 on Long Island on Saturday.
It is a great start, and most of it belongs to one line. Away from McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin, Edmonton has been outscored at five-on-five.
How good is the top line?
As good as any in the league. McDavid, Draisaitl and Podkolzin have played 175 minutes together at five-on-five, have 61 per cent of the expected goals and have outscored opponents 17-6. Leon Draisaitl has 12 goals and is at 62 per cent. Edmonton has outscored teams 22-7 with McDavid on the ice at five-on-five, and 17-6 of that came with the full line together. Vasily Podkolzin is the third man, and the line has worked with him on it.
And everyone else?
Edmonton has scored 34 goals at five-on-five and allowed 27. Take away the 17-6 from the top line and the rest of the team is 17-21.
The team numbers show it. Edmonton has 49 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals, 20th in the league, and creates 2.16 expected goals per 60 minutes, 29th. That is a low number for a team with McDavid and Draisaitl, and it is low because the depth lines create very little. The line of Formenton, Michaels and Joseph is at 35 per cent and has been outscored 9-5.
Why is Edmonton winning, then?
Finishing and the power play. Edmonton is shooting 13.3 per cent at five-on-five, third in the league, and has scored 8.8 more goals than its chances were worth. The power play ranks fourth. Evan Bouchard has seven goals and 23 points, and the Mattias Ekholm and Bouchard pair is at 57 per cent and has outscored opponents 15-3 at five-on-five.
The penalty kill is 26th, so the special teams are not a clean win either.
What about the goaltending?
Better than in September, not as good as two shutouts make it look. In early October we wrote that Edmonton's three-goalie plan was down to Devon Levi. Jarry has since taken the net back. His season save percentage is .895 and he is 1.6 goals below expected, even after the two shutouts. Devon Levi is at .887.
Calgary and the Islanders managed 42 shots between them in those two games. Jarry stopped them all, and that matters, but those two nights are the best stretch of a season that is still below average overall.
The case for patience, stated fairly
The argument for believing in this team is that McDavid and Draisaitl have carried Edmonton to the final twice, and that a top line at 61 per cent with a power play that works is a formula that wins a lot of regular-season games. Bouchard and Ekholm are winning their minutes, Jarry looks settled, and the depth only has to break even for the record to hold.
The other side is that the depth is not breaking even. Edmonton is shooting well above its usual rate at five-on-five, the chances outside the top line are some of the weakest in the league, and its goaltenders are still below expected for the season. When the shooting cools, a 10-2-2 team with a 49 per cent share will start to look more like a .500 team that has a great line.
Our view is that Edmonton has the right top line and should not touch it. The work is below it. A second line that can hold 50 per cent would do more for Edmonton than another hot week from McDavid, and the bottom six needs a centre who can win his minutes.
What to watch
Edmonton plays in New Jersey on Tuesday and is home to Anaheim on Thursday. Watch the five-on-five goals when McDavid is on the bench, because that is where this season will be decided. Every Oilers number is on the team stats page, and the Pacific race is on the standings.