Nikita Kucherov has asked the Lightning for a trade. He and his agent, Dan Milstein, met general manager Julien BriseBois on Friday, and the reporting since has been consistent: Kucherov is a free agent next summer and has told Tampa he will not re-sign. BriseBois answered publicly that the team has "unequivocally" no intention of trading him. Milstein said his client will keep playing while he handles the business side.
Kucherov had three assists in Nashville on Saturday, in a 5-4 shootout loss. Tampa is 8-3-2. The trade request is the story everyone will follow. The numbers say the team's bigger issue this season has been the crease.
Is Kucherov still Kucherov?
Close to it. He has four goals and 18 points in 13 games, after 44 goals and 130 points last season, and Tampa has 59 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals with him on the ice and has outscored opponents 13-8. He is the franchise's all-time leader in points.
His regular line with Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel is at 64 per cent. With Gage Goncalves in Guentzel's place, it is at 63. Point is at 63 per cent overall and Guentzel at 62. These are the best forwards on one of the better five-on-five teams in the league.
| Tampa Bay forward lines, five-on-five, 2026-27 | Expected goals share |
|---|---|
| Guentzel, Point, Kucherov | 64% |
| Goncalves, Point, Kucherov | 63% |
| Hagel, Cirelli, Guentzel | 61% |
Can Tampa win without him?
The third line in that table is the answer the Lightning will point to. Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Guentzel are at 61 per cent with Kucherov nowhere near them, and Hagel has eight goals. As a team Tampa has 55 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals, fifth in the league. The skaters are in good shape with or without the trade.
Then what is wrong?
The goaltending. Tampa's goaltenders are stopping 88.6 per cent of shots at five-on-five, 29th in the league. Andrei Vasilevskiy has an .877 save percentage in ten games and is 2.8 goals below expected, and at five-on-five he is at .876 and 4.6 goals below expected.
In August we wrote that Vasilevskiy was still elite and the only thing keeping Tampa's window open. Thirteen games in, that has turned around. The skaters are holding the window open, and the goaltending is what has cost points.
The power play has not helped either. It is converting 15.2 per cent of the time and ranks 27th in goals per 60 minutes, which is hard to explain on a team with Kucherov, Point and Guentzel.
What is he worth in a trade?
Less than his talent, because of the calendar. A team trading for Kucherov would be getting a player in the last year of his contract who has told his current team he will not sign there, and it would have no promise he would sign with them. Contenders pay for that kind of player at the deadline, not in November. BriseBois knows it, which is one reason he has said no so firmly.
The other reason is that Tampa is good. An 8-3-2 team with 55 per cent of the chances and a Vezina Trophy winner playing below his level does not need to sell its best player in the first month.
The case for patience, stated fairly
The argument for moving him early is that a player who wants out and will leave anyway is worth the most before the season gets away. Waiting until March brings a smaller return and a longer distraction, and players who refuse to re-sign rarely fetch more by waiting.
The other side is that Kucherov is still producing and his line is still winning, and that Milstein's own statement says he will keep playing. Tampa's best chance this season is with him in the lineup and Vasilevskiy back to his normal level. A trade now would give up the first to solve a problem that is not costing them games.
Our view is that BriseBois is right to hold, at least until the deadline, and that the work this month is in goal. If Vasilevskiy returns to form, the Lightning are a contender with or without the drama. If he does not, no trade return will fix it.
What to watch
Detroit visits on Tuesday and Chicago on Thursday. Watch Vasilevskiy's save percentage at five-on-five, and whether Jon Cooper keeps the Point line together while the trade talk goes on. Every Lightning number is on the team stats page, and the Atlantic race is on the standings.