Nick Suzuki came back on Thursday and had a goal and two assists as the Canadiens beat Utah 5-4 in overtime. He had missed six games with an upper-body injury, the end of a long run without missing a game, and the expectation when he went out was that Montreal would struggle. It went 5-0-1.
The Canadiens are 10-3-3, second in the Atlantic, and 7-0-1 since we argued on Oct. 21 that Montreal should start Jacob Fowler. The reason they held up without their captain is in goal. Jacob Fowler has been one of the two best goaltenders in the league this season, and Montreal has won almost every game he has started.
How good has Fowler been?
Very good. Fowler has a .925 save percentage in nine games and is 9.8 goals above expected, second only to Minnesota's Jesper Wallstedt among the 61 goaltenders with at least four games. At five-on-five he is at .934. He has two shutouts, a 30-save shootout win over Detroit and a 46-save win in St. Louis on Oct. 27, and he stopped 42 of 47 shots in Tuesday's overtime loss to Winnipeg.
| Montreal goaltending, 2026-27 | Starts | Record | Save % | Goals saved above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler | 9 | 7-1-1 | .925 | +9.8 |
| Jakub Dobes | 7 | 3-2-2 | .853 | -6.2 |
Per MoneyPuck for save percentage and goals saved, before Thursday. Samuel Montembeault is on injured reserve until at least Nov. 7. The gap between Fowler and Jakub Dobes is 16 goals this season, which is the difference between this record and a .500 one. Fowler was also 7.1 goals above expected in 17 games last season, so this is not a one-month fluke.
Is the team in front of him any good?
Better than average. Montreal has 53 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals, tied for ninth, and has outscored opponents 35-27 at five-on-five. Lane Hutson plays 24.9 minutes a night and the Canadiens have 60 per cent of the expected goals with him on the ice. Cole Caufield has ten goals, on chances worth 6.1, so his finishing is running hot.
The surprise is the checking line. Phillip Danault between Alexandre Texier and Zachary Bolduc has 72 per cent of the expected goals over 118 minutes, the best of any regular line on the team, even if it has been outscored 3-2.
| Montreal forward lines, five-on-five, 2026-27 | Minutes | Expected goals share | Goals for-against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texier, Danault, Bolduc | 118 | 72% | 2-3 |
| Slafkovsky, Suzuki, Caufield | 80 | 63% | 4-1 |
| Kreider, Newhook, Anderson | 76 | 39% | 3-3 |
What is wrong with the power play?
Almost everything. Montreal converts 13.0 per cent of its chances, 30th. At five-on-four it creates fewer chances than any team in the league and is shooting 7.3 per cent, also last. MoneyPuck has it with three goals at five-on-four before Thursday. Suzuki's return should help, and so will Ivan Demidov, who is on injured reserve with an ankle injury until at least Nov. 14.
The case for patience, stated fairly
The case for believing in Montreal is that it is good at five-on-five, has its captain back, and has a goaltender who has been well above average across 26 NHL games over two seasons. Fix the power play even to league average and this is a team that should stay near the top of the division.
The other side is that 9.8 goals above expected in nine games is a pace no goaltender keeps, and Montreal's record is built on it. The Canadiens are 3-2-2 when Fowler does not start. Caufield's finishing will cool, and Mike Matheson and Demidov are both out.
Our view is that Montreal should give Fowler the clear majority of starts and treat the power play as the problem to fix before he comes back to earth. Suzuki on the first unit with Hutson is the obvious place to start.
What to watch
Montreal plays in Toronto on Saturday and is home to Minnesota on Tuesday. Watch who starts in goal in both, and the five-on-four chances with Suzuki back. Every Canadiens number is on the team stats page, and the Atlantic race is on the standings.
Correction, November 6, 2026: An earlier version of this article called Jacob Fowler's shutout of Detroit an overtime win. It was decided in a shootout. It also said he made 45 saves in St. Louis on Oct. 27. He made 46.