Minnesota WildMatthew Schaefer broke in alone 33 seconds into overtime in St. Paul on Thursday and beat Jesper Wallstedt with a wrist shot from the right circle. It was his second goal of the night and his third point, and it gave the Islanders a 4-3 win over Minnesota, their second overtime win in three days. They are 7-4-2, tied for second in the Metropolitan.
In September we wrote that Ilya Sorokin saved 25 goals last season and the Islanders missed the playoffs anyway. The goaltending was the best in the league and the finishing was among the worst, and the two cancelled out. Thirteen games into this season, the goaltending is still excellent. The difference is that the Islanders have stopped throwing it away.
What changed from last season?
Mostly the finishing. Last season the Islanders scored 20.7 fewer five-on-five goals than their chances were worth, one of the worst figures in the league, while their goaltenders saved 40 more than expected, the best. This season the finishing is close to neutral, 1.8 goals below expected at five-on-five, and the goaltending is still near the top.
| New York Islanders | 2025-26 | 2026-27 |
|---|---|---|
| Five-on-five expected goals share | 48% | 50% |
| Five-on-five goals above expected | -20.7 | -1.8 |
| Goals saved above expected, all situations | +40.1 (1st) | +9.6 (2nd) |
The Islanders have outscored opponents 25-21 at five-on-five. That is what a team with average chances and very good goaltending should look like, and last season it was not what happened.
How good has Sorokin been?
Very good, and not alone. Ilya Sorokin has a .915 save percentage in nine games, a .927 at five-on-five, and is 5.0 goals above expected. That includes a 37-save shutout of New Jersey in the second game of the season. Semyon Varlamov has played four and is 5.4 goals above expected, which says more about the quality of the shots he has faced than his .891 save percentage does.
| Starter | Record | Save % | Goals saved above expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin | 6-3-0 | .915 | +5.0 |
| Semyon Varlamov | 1-1-2 | .891 | +5.4 |
The penalty kill shows the same thing. The Islanders allow chances at the 25th-best rate in the league when shorthanded, and have still allowed only six power-play goals, sixth-best. Their goaltenders are stopping 87.8 per cent of shots on the kill. That is the crease doing the work.
Is Schaefer already a top defenceman?
On the evidence so far, yes. Schaefer won the Calder Trophy last season with 23 goals and 59 points as an 18-year-old, and he has 14 points in 13 games this season, seventh among defencemen. He is playing 27.0 minutes a night, third in the league behind Zach Werenski and Quinn Hughes, and his 50 shots are the most by any defenceman.
The Islanders have 53 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals with him on the ice and 50 per cent overall, so he is lifting a team that would be below average without him. Of the other regular defencemen, Logan Stanley is at 55 per cent, Adam Pelech at 44 and Ryan Pulock at 42.
Is the forward group good enough?
This is the question. Bo Horvat has seven goals and 14 points, and the line of Kyle Palmieri, Horvat and Simon Holmström has 57 per cent of the expected goals over 58 minutes. It is the most reliable line the Islanders have. Brayden Schenn's line with Ritchie and Victor Eklund is at 44 per cent, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau's line has been badly out-chanced whenever Simon Holmström replaces Ondrej Palat on it.
The Islanders create 2.55 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, 15th, and allow 2.56, 18th. That is a middle-of-the-league team at five-on-five. It is being carried into the top half of the standings by the crease and its best defenceman.
The case for patience, stated fairly
The argument against getting excited is that this is the same shape of team as last season. The Islanders are a 50 per cent team that depends on goaltending far above average, and save percentage is the least stable thing in hockey. Last season's finishing was among the worst in the league and could not have stayed that way. This season's is roughly average, which removes the bad luck without adding anything new. If Sorokin regresses towards average, this is a .500 team.
The other side is that Schaefer is a year older and now plays 27 minutes a night, and the Islanders win his minutes. Schaefer is improving, the finishing has normalised, and Sorokin was 25 goals above expected last season, so this is not a goaltender playing over his head. In a Metropolitan where only Carolina has pulled clear, that is enough to make the playoffs.
Our view is that the Islanders are a real playoff team this season, and that the way to make it safer is a second forward line that can win its minutes. The goaltending will not always be this good, and the time to add scoring is before it slips.
What to watch
Edmonton visits on Saturday with the best power-play percentage in the league, which will test a penalty kill that has relied on its goaltenders. Watch how much of Schaefer's ice time comes against Edmonton's top line. Every Islanders number is on the team stats page, and the Metropolitan race is on the standings.