The Avalanche shut out Detroit 4-0 on Saturday and are 10-6-2. They have scored 72 goals, third in the league, and are plus-17. They play in Toronto on Tuesday.
Two weeks ago we wrote that Colorado was plus-11 and losing the close ones. It still is. What has become clearer since is where the goals are coming from. Colorado is scoring at a rate its chances do not support, and its chances have dropped from last season.
How hot is the shooting?
The hottest in the league. Colorado is shooting 12.7 per cent at five-on-five, first, and has scored 13.8 more five-on-five goals than its chances were worth, also the most in the league. It has outscored opponents 54-36 at five-on-five.
The heat runs through the lineup.
| Colorado, 2026-27 | Goals | Individual expected goals | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artturi Lehkonen | 12 | 6.9 | +5.1 |
| Martin Necas | 9 | 5.3 | +3.7 |
| Jaden Schwartz | 7 | 3.2 | +3.8 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 |
Artturi Lehkonen has 12 goals, fifth in the league, after scoring 21 all of last season on 26.9 expected. Martin Necas has nine on 5.3 and Jaden Schwartz seven on 3.2. These are good players, but all four are finishing well above their chances at the same time, and Lehkonen finished below his last season.
And the chances?
Down from last season. Colorado had 57 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals last season. This season it has 53, sixth in the league, which is still good but no longer elite. It creates 2.75 expected goals per 60 minutes, down from 3.03, and allows chances at roughly a league-average rate.
Nathan MacKinnon is still MacKinnon, with 30 points, fifth in the league, and his line with Lehkonen and Necas has outscored teams 19-9 at five-on-five. But that line is at 54 per cent of the expected goals, not the kind of share that usually comes with a 19-9 goal record. Cale Makar and Devon Toews are at 60 per cent and 14-8, the best regular pairing on the team.
Why the record lags the goal difference
Because the goals arrive in bunches. Colorado is 9-3 in games decided by three goals or more, and 1-3-2 in one-goal games. A team that wins blowouts and loses close games usually has a goal difference that flatters its true level slightly, and a record that undersells it slightly. Colorado is both.
The goaltending matters here too. Colorado's goaltenders are 5.1 goals below expected across all situations, 27th in the league, which is part of why the close games keep slipping. The shooting has been covering for that as well.
| Colorado, 2026-27 | Record |
|---|---|
| Decided by one goal | 1-3-2 |
| Decided by three or more | 9-3 |
| Season | 10-6-2 |
The case for patience, stated fairly
The case for Colorado is that this is still a good team with one of the best players in the world, a top pair at 60 per cent, and a goal difference of plus-17. If the one-goal games even out, the record will catch up with the scoreboard.
The other side is that the scoreboard itself is running hot. A team at 53 per cent of the chances does not usually score 13.8 goals above expected over a full season, and when Lehkonen, Necas and Schwartz cool off, the goal difference will shrink with them. The underlying team is good, a step below where it was last season.
Our view is that Colorado is a top-eight team pretending to be a top-three one on the scoreboard. The fix is the same one it was in October: better goaltending in close games, and a second line that drives more of the chances.
What to watch
Colorado plays in Toronto on Tuesday, Ottawa on Thursday and Montreal on Saturday. Watch the one-goal games, and whether Lehkonen's finishing holds up. Every Avalanche number is on the team stats page, and the Central race is on the standings.