On Oct. 9 we wrote that Calgary had already sold its best players and should finish the job. The Flames were 0-4 that day and had been outscored 23-6. They lost once more, then went 7-3-1. After a 2-1 overtime loss in Seattle on Wednesday they are 7-8-1, two points out of a wild-card spot in the West.
That run deserves an honest look, because part of what we wrote was wrong. We said Dustin Wolf's next few starts would decide whether Calgary was merely bad or historically bad. It is not historically bad. The question is whether the turnaround changes the case for selling, and the numbers say it does not.
What changed?
The goals against, mostly. In the first five games Calgary allowed 27. In the 11 since it has allowed 28, about two and a half a game. It has scored 31 in those 11 games, after eight in the first five.
| Calgary, 2026-27 | Games | Record | Goals for | Goals against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First five games | 5 | 0-5-0 | 8 | 27 |
| Since Oct. 13 | 11 | 7-3-1 | 31 | 28 |
The goaltending did a lot of that, and again it was the backup. Devin Cooley won four straight starts from Oct. 18 to Oct. 26 and stopped 123 of 129 shots, including 35 of 36 against Minnesota. He is 2.2 goals above expected this season, after saving 17.3 more than expected last season. Dustin Wolf is still 5.5 goals below expected, 56th of 61 goaltenders with at least four games, though he has stopped 74 of 79 shots in his last three starts.
Is the team actually better?
Not by the measures that last. Calgary has 47 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals, 23rd in the league, the same level it was at last season when it finished 28th. It allows 2.71 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, 25th. The goals against came down on the back of better goaltending, while the chances against stayed about where they were.
The other end has its own problem. Calgary is shooting 6.4 per cent at five-on-five, 31st, and has scored 7.4 fewer goals than its chances were worth. Its 39 goals are the third-fewest in the league. The power play is the bright spot, at 29.7 per cent, fifth, though that rests on a 26.2 per cent shooting rate at five-on-four that will not last.
| Calgary forward lines, five-on-five, 2026-27 | Minutes | Expected goals share | Goals for-against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strome, Pospisil, Gridin | 109 | 45% | 4-5 |
| Farabee, Backlund, Coronato | 82 | 40% | 3-2 |
| Suniev, Frost, Sharangovich | 75 | 51% | 3-5 |
Joel Farabee leads the team with 15 points and Matt Coronato has 14, but the line they share with Mikael Backlund is at 40 per cent. Jonathan Huberdeau is on injured reserve with a hip injury until at least Nov. 28.
So should Calgary still sell?
Yes, and the run makes it easier. Morgan Frost has four goals and ten points in the final year of his contract, and contenders pay more for a centre on a team that is winning than one that is 0-5. Zach Whitecloud is still a useful defenceman on a cheap deal, even if he and Jake Middleton are at 38 per cent over 125 minutes this season. Both are worth more now than they were a month ago.
The case for patience, stated fairly
The case for holding is better than it was in October. Calgary is close to the playoff line, the penalty kill ranks eighth, Cooley has been one of the best backups in the league for two seasons, and Wolf looks like he is finding his game. Selling while the team is winning sends a message to a dressing room that has just dug itself out of a hole.
The other side is that 7-3-1 came on a 47 per cent share and the third-fewest goals in the league. When Cooley cools off, the record will drift back towards the chances. A team that has to win this way every night is not a playoff team, and its pending free agents will be worth less in March.
Our view is that we were wrong about the floor and right about the direction. Craig Conroy should use the good month to sell high.
What to watch
Calgary is home to Anaheim on Friday, Philadelphia on Sunday and the Rangers on Wednesday. Watch who starts in goal, and whether the five-on-five scoring finally moves. Every Flames number is on the team stats page, and the Pacific race is on the standings.