The Maple Leafs lost 4-0 at home to New Jersey on Sunday, their third straight loss. They are 8-9-2, seventh in the Atlantic, with a goal difference of plus-one. On paper that looks like a team having some bad luck. Underneath it is a team getting badly out-played at five-on-five and covering for it with two very good special-teams units.
How bad is Toronto at five-on-five?
Bottom-seven in the league. The Leafs have 46 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals, 26th, and create 2.19 expected goals per 60 minutes, 28th. They have been outscored 46-39 at five-on-five, and that is with their finishing running 5.3 goals above what the chances were worth, seventh in the league.
This is not new either. Toronto was at 46 per cent at five-on-five last season, and in late October it was down at 43, 29th in the league. The share has crept back up since, and the power play is still carrying the team.
So where are the goals coming from?
The power play. Toronto has scored 16 goals at five-on-four, fifth in the league, shooting 22.5 per cent with the extra man. Its penalty kill is fifth at 85.9 per cent and its goaltenders are stopping 89.3 per cent of shots on the kill, also fifth. Take special teams away and Toronto is a team losing most nights.
| Toronto, 2026-27 | Figure | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| Five-on-five expected goals share | 46% | 26th |
| Five-on-five goals for-against | 39-46 | |
| Power-play goals at five-on-four | 16 | 5th |
| Penalty kill | 85.9% | 5th |
Who is struggling?
The surprise is William Nylander. He has 11 goals and 22 points, but the Leafs have 41 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals with him on the ice and have been outscored 18-13. Auston Matthews is at 54 per cent with 11 goals and 27 points, and his line with Jack Roslovic and Easton Cowan has outscored teams 7-2.
Gavin McKenna has six goals and 12 points in his first 19 NHL games, which is a fine start for a teenager. He is also at 38 per cent of the expected goals, and the line of McKenna, John Tavares and Nylander has been outscored 4-0 in 38 minutes with 29 per cent of the chances.
The blue line is the other hole. Jake McCabe and Darren Raddysh are the most-used pair, at 44 per cent over 185 minutes, and have been outscored 10-6. Raddysh plays 24 minutes a night, more than any Leafs skater.
And the injuries?
They are piling up. Max Domi is out until at least the end of January with a back injury. Kirill Marchenko, who has six goals in 14 games, is on injured reserve until at least Nov. 23. Morgan Rielly and Colton Sissons are also out. That explains some of the recent slide, but the five-on-five numbers were poor before most of those injuries arrived.
The case for patience, stated fairly
The case for patience is that Toronto has two of the best special-teams units in the league, Matthews is playing well, and the injury list will shrink. A team that scores this often on the power play and kills penalties this well can stay in the playoff race even with ordinary five-on-five play.
The other side is that special teams swing hard from month to month, and five-on-five is where most of a season is played. Toronto is 26th there, and its finishing has helped rather than hurt. Luck has had little to do with the record, and a power play is papering over a poor five-on-five team.
Our view is that Toronto's problem is structural and starts on the blue line. Splitting McCabe and Raddysh and getting Nylander away from a line that is losing badly would be a start. Waiting for the power play to keep bailing them out is not a plan.
What to watch
Colorado visits on Tuesday, Minnesota on Thursday and Edmonton on Saturday, three strong teams from the West. Watch the five-on-five shot share in those games. Every Leafs number is on the team stats page, and the Atlantic race is on the standings.