Alex Tuch Is Earning the $84 Million

Alex Tuch scored twice against Philadelphia on Wednesday, Jordan Kyrou scored twice, and Dylan Strome set up three of the goals in a 5-2 win. The Capitals won again in Nashville on Thursday, 4-3, for their fifth win in six games. They are 8-4-0, with 16 points from 12 games, the fewest games played of any team at that total in the Metropolitan.

In September we were sceptical. Our piece on Washington's summer argued that Logan Thompson saved more goals than any goalie in the league and the Capitals still missed the playoffs, and that the answer had been $84 million for a winger rather than help on defence. Twelve games in, the winger is giving Washington exactly what it paid for. The defence is still the problem we said it was.

Is Tuch's start real?

Mostly. Tuch has ten goals in 12 games, tied for third in the league behind Kirill Kaprizov and Leon Draisaitl. He has 33 shots and 6.5 individual expected goals, the 16th-most in the league, so he is getting to dangerous ice as often as almost any forward. He is also finishing well above that rate, ten goals on chances worth six and a half, and that part will slow down.

What matters for the contract is the first number. A winger who generates 6.5 expected goals in 12 games is on pace for something like 45 across a full season, and even with normal finishing that is a 35-goal player. Washington has 57 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals with him on the ice and has outscored opponents 11-7.

Who is Tuch playing with?

The line Spencer Carbery has settled on is Tuch with Strome and Kyrou, and it has been the best in Washington.

Strome has three goals and nine assists, and Kyrou, the winger St. Louis traded in June, has four goals and 11 points in 12 games. Kyrou's on-ice numbers are worth a closer look. He is at 57 per cent of the expected goals overall, but Washington has been outscored 13-11 with him on the ice at five-on-five, most of that in his minutes away from Tuch. On the top line, he works.

Boone Jenner, who came from Columbus in the Nichushkin trade, has five goals, and the third line he centres between Justin Sourdif and Ryan Leonard has the best expected goal share on the team in a small sample. Alex Ovechkin has one goal in 12 games and is playing 13.5 minutes a night, which fits what we wrote in early October about his minutes.

So what is still wrong?

The other end of the ice. Washington creates 3.05 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, second only to Carolina. It also allows 2.69, 23rd. That leaves it at 53 per cent of the expected goals, a good share built in an unusual way. Washington wins its games by creating more than the other team, while letting opponents create plenty of their own, and its shot-attempt share is only 48 per cent, 18th.

The penalty kill is the same story in sharper form. Washington allows 9.15 expected goals per 60 at four-on-five, 28th, and has allowed only six goals because its goaltenders are stopping 88.7 per cent of shots on the kill, fifth-best.

Logan Thompson is 4.6 goals above expected this season with a .903 save percentage, and Charlie Lindgren has won three of his four starts. The goaltending is good again. It is also doing the same job it did last season, covering for a defence that gives up too much.

Is the defence any better than last season?

Not by much. Jakob Chychrun plays 24.3 minutes a night at 53 per cent, Martin Fehérváry is at 56, and Cole Hutson has four goals and is at 55. Those are fine numbers. The issue is depth. Timothy Liljegren is at 47 per cent in 17.4 minutes a night, and Washington claimed Jack St. Ivany on waivers from Winnipeg last weekend. He had two assists in his debut on Wednesday.

The case for patience, stated fairly

The case for believing in this team is that it is doing the hardest thing well. Chance creation tends to hold up across a season, and Washington creates more than every team but one. Tuch and Strome are producing, Kyrou has fitted in, and Thompson saved more goals than anyone last season and is above expected again. A team with that combination can win a lot of games while it sorts out the defence.

The other side is that this is the shape that missed the playoffs last season: very good goaltending covering for a team that allows too much. Washington's shooting percentage is fourth in the league and its finishing is 4.2 goals above expected at five-on-five. When that cools, the chances it allows will start to show in the results.

Our view is that Tuch has answered the question we asked in September, and that the next move should be the one we wanted then: a defenceman who can play 20 minutes and cut down the chances against. The forwards are good enough. The defence will decide whether this is a division contender or another team that leans on Thompson until it cannot.

What to watch

Minnesota visits on Sunday and Dallas on Tuesday. Both suppress chances well, so they are a fair test of whether Washington's top line can create against good defensive teams. Every Capitals number is on the team stats page, and the Metropolitan race is on the standings.