The last time these two franchises met in the playoffs was 2021, and the circumstances were strange enough that both organisations have quietly agreed to treat it as a footnote. A pandemic-distorted season, a temporary West Division, Colorado with a 2-0 series lead - and then Vegas winning four straight to advance. Cale Makar was 22. Nathan MacKinnon was not yet the player he is today. Mitch Marner was still a Maple Leaf. Jared Bednar was still explaining why his teams couldn't close out leads.
It is 2026 now. MacKinnon won his third Hart Trophy last summer. Marner won the Western Conference Second Round in his first season in Vegas and leads all playoff scorers with 18 points across 12 games. Makar has two Norris Trophies. Colorado just won the Presidents' Trophy with 121 points - the most dominant regular-season performance in the league in years - and tore through the first two rounds in nine games, scoring 4.11 goals per game while holding Minnesota to a single goal in Games 4 and 5. Vegas ground through twelve games against Utah and Anaheim, winning both series in six, and arrives at this stage knowing they are the underdog in a way the Golden Knights have rarely been in their nine-year history.
This is the series that defines the Western Conference. Two Stanley Cup winners this decade. Two franchises with no quit, multiple playoff layers, and the individual talent to change games on a single shift. Colorado is the favourite. Vegas has beaten favourites before. What follows is everything you need to know before puck drop Wednesday in Denver.
Two Roads to the Western Conference Final
| Team | Round 1 | Round 2 | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Sweep LAK 4-0 | Beat MIN 4-1 | 8-1 |
| Vegas | Beat UTA 4-2 | Beat ANA 4-2 | 8-4 |
Colorado's road has been clinical and short. They swept the Kings in four games and never trailed in the series - Wedgewood posted a .950 plus save percentage across the round and Landeskog scored in his first playoff appearance since his knee injury. Round 2 against Minnesota produced a 9-6 Game 1 (most combined goals in a playoff game since 1994), MacKinnon strings of three consecutive three-point games (sixth player in 40 years), a Makar injury scare from a Marcus Foligno hit that he answered with two third-period goals, and a Game 5 elimination win in which Colorado trailed 3-0 before MacKinnon tied it with 1:23 left and Brett Kulak won it 3:52 into overtime.
Vegas's road has been longer and harder. The Utah series produced 41 goals - the highest of any 2026 first-round matchup. Pavel Dorofeyev's Game 5 hat trick (three consecutive game-tying goals, fourth player in NHL history to do that) and Brett Howden's double-overtime shorthanded winner defined a chaotic series that taxed Vegas's goaltending and depth. Round 2 against Anaheim brought Marner's natural hat trick in Game 3, his between-the-legs goal at 1:02 of Game 6 that closed the series, Brayden McNabb ejected in Game 5 (and Vegas winning anyway), Dorofeyev scoring five more goals, and Howden's third shorthanded goal to tie the NHL single-postseason record. Mark Stone suffered an undisclosed injury in Game 1 against Anaheim and missed the entire series.
What Kind of Series This Actually Is
The narrative frame - MacKinnon vs Marner, the league's two hottest offensive performers on the same stage - is appealing and accurate. But the series will not be decided by which superstar has the better individual stat line. It will be decided by which defensive system creates the more effective compression around the other team's star, and by which goaltender holds when the shots are hardest.
Colorado is the Presidents' Trophy winner seeking to end a curse that has lasted since the 2013 Chicago Blackhawks - the last team to win the trophy and the Cup in the same year. They have been here before: in 2021 they were the Presidents' Trophy winner too, and Vegas eliminated them. They went on to win the Cup in 2022 without the trophy. Now, with the same core, a deeper roster built at the trade deadline (Nazem Kadri, Nic Roy, Kulak), and a full week of rest, they want to answer the question their 2021 exit left open.
Vegas is the series underdog in a way they have rarely been. Their 95-point regular season was the second-lowest of any team in the WCF since the Golden Knights' founding - but 95 points in the Pacific Division, against the competition that division produced, is genuinely competitive. They have Marner playing the best hockey of his career, Dorofeyev leading the league in playoff goals, Howden breaking records with shorthanded winners, and Jack Eichel holding everything together with 14 assists in 12 games. They also have three fewer days of rest than Colorado, twelve games of accumulated wear, and a Mark Stone injury situation that nobody outside the locker room can fully assess.
Colorado Had a Full Week Off. Vegas Finished Thursday Night. This Matters More Than People Admit.
Colorado completed their second-round series on Wednesday, May 13 - a Game 5 win over Minnesota in Denver. Game 1 of the WCF is Wednesday, May 20. That is seven days of rest. They will have had time to let bumps heal, to let Makar's ankle be re-evaluated by team trainers, to let Artturi Lehkonen and Sam Malinski return from lower-body injuries that cost them Games 4 and 5 against the Wild.
Vegas finished their series on Thursday, May 14 - a Game 6 win in Anaheim. That is six days before Game 1. Still meaningful recovery time, but three days fewer than Colorado, and coming off twelve accumulated games of playoff physicality against opponents (Utah and Anaheim) who were both combative. Their best defenceman (McNabb) was ejected in Game 5 and then played Game 6 under a cloud. Their captain (Stone) missed the entirety of the Anaheim series. Their goaltender (Carter Hart) has started all 12 games - the most starts of any goaltender currently alive in the 2026 playoffs.
None of this is decisive by itself. Vegas managed the rest situation well against Anaheim and showed no signs of fatigue in a dominant Game 6. But in a series between two evenly matched teams, the marginal recovery advantage Colorado holds may produce outcomes in Games 5, 6, and 7 that don't appear in early games. A fresher Makar in overtime. A sharper Wedgewood in Game 7. These are small edges. In a series this close, small edges decide outcomes.
Where This Series Will Be Won and Lost
MacKinnon vs the Vegas Defensive Structure - The Central Battle
Thirteen points in nine games, seven goals, the tying goal with 1:23 left in Game 5 against Minnesota. Tortorella will deploy his top defensive pair (Hanifin-Andersson) in his heavy minutes and likely use Tomas Hertl as a shadow candidate, but Vegas's real counter is their 96.3% penalty kill - if MacKinnon's power-play time is limited, the matchup becomes manageable. Minnesota tried structured defence and he still produced 10 points in five games.
Marner vs Colorado's Defensive Physicality
Eighteen points in twelve games, the hat trick in Anaheim Game 3, the between-the-legs winner in Game 6, four shorthanded assists (a modern NHL record). The Makar-Toews pair tracking him in transition is the most difficult individual matchup he'll face all year. The question is whether he's contained at 8-10 points (which might not be enough for Vegas to win) or allowed to reach 15-plus (which likely is).
The Blue Line Battle - Possession Decider
The blue line is Colorado's single biggest advantage. Shea Theodore is genuinely good and the quarterback of Vegas's power play, but this is not a competitive matchup - it is the largest gap between any two equivalent positional players in either lineup. Makar's ankle (from the Foligno hit) is the only caveat. A compromised Makar at 80% is still very good. A healthy Makar is the most impactful non-goalie in the series.
Hart vs Colorado's 4.11 Goals Per Game
Hart has started all 12 Vegas playoff games and his .912 save percentage is functional, not dominant - and his variance in the Anaheim series (excellent in Games 1, 2, and 6; below expectations in Games 3 and 4) is the concern. MacKinnon, Makar, Landeskog, Kadri, and Martin Necas collectively are the most dangerous lineup Hart has faced all postseason. His best three-game stretch suggests the ceiling exists. Whether it sustains seven games is the central question of the series.
Vegas's 96.3% PK vs Colorado's 25% Power Play
The immovable object meets the unstoppable force. 26-for-27 against a power play that has scored 18 goals this postseason. If Vegas's kill holds, Colorado's most reliable offensive mechanism is neutralised and Vegas's depth scoring becomes proportionally more important. If Colorado breaks through, the gap between the teams becomes dominant. This is the series-deciding factor.
The Depth Battle - The Third and Fourth Lines
Vegas's fourth line scored six goals in the Anaheim series and Tortorella specifically called it out post-Game 6. Howden (NHL record three SHGs), Dorofeyev (NHL-leading nine goals), Hertl ending a 29-game drought with the Game 5 winner. Colorado's supporting cast - Kadri, Roy, Kulak - is deep and experienced, but Lehkonen and Malinski remain question marks. In a series where MacKinnon and Marner cancel each other at the margins, depth is the tiebreaker.
#8 · D · 75 GPThe Players Who Will Decide the Series
Nathan MacKinnon - 13 PTS in 9 Games
Third Hart Trophy winner. Rocket Richard winner with 53 regular-season goals. He tied a Game 5 elimination game with 1:23 left in regulation with a top-shelf wrist shot from under the left dot. Three consecutive three-point playoff games - sixth player in 40 years. No one in this postseason has found a sustainable answer to him. The question is whether MacKinnon at 70% of his production still produces more than Marner can match. The answer is probably yes. He is the best player in the series, and the one player either team cannot replicate.
Mitch Marner - 18 PTS in 12 Games
Seven goals, eleven assists, the most of any 2026 scorer by a four-point margin. The hat trick in Anaheim Game 3. The between-the-legs goal at 1:02 of Game 6. Four shorthanded assists - a modern NHL record. He silenced a decade of narrative. Colorado will deploy their most physically imposing defensive matchups against him. Whether Marner's patience and precision prevail against Makar's athleticism is the defining individual chess match of the series.
Cale Makar - The Health Question
Two Norris Trophies. The best defenceman in the world on his best day. He took a hit from Marcus Foligno that bent his leg sideways and scored twice in the third period of that same game. His ankle health heading into Wednesday is the most important injury question in the series. Healthy: the most impactful non-goalie in the WCF. Compromised: the series becomes genuinely competitive. Game 1 warmups will be closely watched by both coaching staffs.
Jack Eichel - 15 PTS in 12 Games
One goal. Fourteen assists. The best pure distributor in the 2026 playoffs - setting up Dorofeyev's overtime winner, feeding Marner into the between-the-legs sequence, triggering virtually every Howden shorthanded goal with the initial puck possession. Against Colorado he faces his most complex matchup yet: Nazem Kadri as a two-way centre shadow, and defensive pairs prepared to deny the cross-ice feeds Marner thrives on. How Eichel produces when those lanes are compressed is Vegas's key question.
Players Nobody Is Discussing - But Who Could Decide a Game
Nic Roy - The Former Knight
He won the Cup with Vegas in 2023. He was traded to Toronto as part of the Marner compensation package. He was then traded to Colorado at the deadline. Now he faces his former team in the WCF. Beyond the narrative: Roy is a useful two-way centre who brings specific knowledge of how Vegas builds plays and where their defensive gaps exist. Two goals and two assists in Round 2. He gives Bednar a defensive centre option who has logged WCF minutes before.
Pavel Dorofeyev - Leads the NHL in Playoff Goals
Nine goals in twelve games. Zero in the 2025 playoffs and 29 in the regular season - nobody predicted this. His hat trick against Utah (three consecutive game-tying goals) was historically unique. His two goals in Game 6 against Anaheim sealed the series. He is the most dangerous goal-scorer left in the playoffs not named MacKinnon. His release is quick enough that even when defenders know he is going to shoot, stopping him requires perfect positioning Colorado's defencemen don't always provide.
Brett Kulak - The OT Hero
He scored the overtime winner that sent Colorado to the WCF. His career path is remarkable: Stanley Cup Final with Montreal in 2021, Conference Finals with Edmonton in 2022, 2024, and 2025. He has been in more high-pressure playoff spots than anyone else on either blue line outside of Makar and Theodore. Against Vegas's physical forwards, his presence in Makar's shadow is functionally important.
Tomas Hertl - The Cup Veteran
Went 29 games without a goal before scoring the series-winning go-ahead at 4:38 of the third in Game 5 against Anaheim. Added another in Game 6. The Hertl who won the Cup in 2023 with Vegas - two-way, hard to match against, capable of the clutch goal - appears to be back. If he contributes offensively as he did in the final two Anaheim games, Tortorella's bottom six becomes the most productive in the series.
Martin Necas - The Quiet Connector
Four assists in Round 2 against Minnesota. The connector who makes the offence work in periods when MacKinnon is being specifically shadowed. His ability to activate off the rush and provide a secondary scoring option from the second line gives Colorado a dimension that is easy to overlook. Against Tortorella's system - which specifically targets secondary scorers - his ability to find space becomes critical.
Brett Howden - The PK Weapon
Three shorthanded goals tie the NHL single-postseason record. The Marner-Howden shorthanded combination has been the most dangerous specific penalty-kill sequence in the 2026 playoffs. If Howden can generate even one shorthanded chance off Colorado's best-in-class power play, the momentum implications in a tight series game are significant.
Who Starts in Net - And Who Holds When It Matters
| Goalie | Team | Postseason SV% | GS | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart | VGK | .912 | 12 | Started every Vegas game |
| Scott Wedgewood | COL | .911 | 8 | Most likely G1 starter |
| Mackenzie Blackwood | COL | .935 (G4) | 1 | Available if needed |
Bednar used both goalies in Round 2 and hasn't committed publicly to a Game 1 starter. Wedgewood started the majority but was pulled in Game 5 down 3-0; Blackwood was excellent in Game 4 (19 saves) but hasn't started in 25-plus days. The most likely scenario: Wedgewood opens, with Blackwood available if the series goes sideways early. Neither has faced an offence with Marner and Dorofeyev both operational. Neither has started a WCF game before.
Hart has started every Vegas playoff game. His .912 is functional - wins more than it loses - but his variance across the two rounds is the concern. His save on Jeffrey Viel's breakaway in Game 5 against Anaheim (with Vegas leading 2-1 in the third) was the kind of stop that defines playoff goaltenders. Against an offence averaging 4.11 goals per game, he needs to be in the 85th percentile of his ability range most nights. The ceiling has been demonstrated. Whether it sustains across seven games against MacKinnon and Makar is the central question his postseason has been building toward.
He Won the Cup With Vegas in 2023. He Was Traded for Marner. Now He Faces Them Both.
When Vegas signed Marner as a UFA last summer, they compensated Toronto by including Nic Roy in the package. Roy then moved to Toronto - a team that finished outside the playoffs - and was subsequently traded to Colorado at the deadline in exchange for a 2027 first-round pick and a 2026 fifth.
Roy now faces his former team in the Western Conference Final. His Cup ring came at T-Mobile Arena in 2023. The series starts in Denver on Wednesday. He knows every system, every tendency, every power-play pattern Vegas has run for the past three years. That institutional knowledge is worth something. What it's worth in terms of actual game impact is a different and smaller number - but in a series where details decide games, Bednar will find a way to use what Roy knows.
No Presidents' Trophy Winner Has Lifted the Cup Since 2013 Chicago. Colorado Wants to Break the Streak.
The trophy winner has been eliminated before winning the Stanley Cup in each of the past 13 seasons: 2014 Boston, 2015 Rangers, 2016 and 2017 Washington, 2018 Nashville, 2019 Tampa, 2020 Boston, 2021 Pittsburgh, 2022 Florida, 2023 Boston, 2024 Vancouver, 2025 Boston. Colorado is seeking to end that run.
Their 121-point regular season represents the most dominant trophy-winning performance in over a decade. The 2022 Cup run that this core produced did not include the Presidents' Trophy - which may be psychologically freeing rather than binding. MacKinnon, Makar, and Bednar have been explicit about their desire to complete what 2022 started: win it again, prove it wasn't a one-season peak.
The curse will be an easy external narrative. The team has the quality to dismiss it.
| Player | Team | G | A | PTS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner | VGK | 7 | 11 | 18 | 12 |
| Jack Eichel | VGK | 1 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 7 | 6 | 13 | 9 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | VGK | 9 | 2 | 11 | 12 |
| Cale Makar | COL | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | COL | 3 | 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Martin Necas | COL | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 |
| Shea Theodore | VGK | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 |
| Ivan Barbashev | VGK | 2 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Devon Toews | COL | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Brett Howden | VGK | 6 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| Nazem Kadri | COL | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| Category | Colorado | Vegas |
|---|---|---|
| Goals For/Game | 4.11 | 3.67 |
| Goals Against/Game | 2.11 | 2.75 |
| Power Play % | 25.0 | 21.0 |
| Penalty Kill % | 82.0 | 96.3 |
| Record | 8-1 | 8-4 |
| Games Played | 9 | 12 |
| Rest Heading Into G1 | 7 days | 6 days |
| Regular Season H2H | 2-0-1 | 0-2-1 |
Colorado in Six - But Vegas Will Make Them Earn It
MacKinnon and Makar are better than the individual equivalents Vegas can field. Colorado's goaltending uncertainty is the only real concern for the favourite. If Wedgewood or Blackwood holds at .910 or better across the series, the Avalanche's offensive depth and physical dominance produces the margin. Vegas takes two games - probably Games 3 and 4 at T-Mobile, where the crowd and the home advantage shifts the balance - but Colorado's rest advantage, defensive structure, and top-end talent closes it before Game 7.
Why Colorado wins: They are deeper. They are more rested. MacKinnon is the series' best player. Makar is the series' best defenceman. Their 25% power play is the strongest remaining in the playoffs. Their 8-1 record reflects a team that has solved every problem it has encountered in 2026.
Why Vegas can win: Marner at 18 points in 12 games is the 2026 playoffs' best individual story. Dorofeyev's nine goals represent a production level Colorado has no direct equivalent to. The 96.3% penalty kill could neutralise Colorado's most reliable offensive mechanism. A returning Stone would change the defensive structure for the first three games at least. And Hart, at his Games 1, 2, and 6 against Anaheim level, can keep Vegas in games Colorado's offence should dominate.
The key game: Game 3 at T-Mobile Arena. Colorado winning Games 1 and 2 in Denver is the most likely opening. A Vegas win in Game 3 - at home, with the full T-Mobile environment energised - either opens a genuine series or confirms Colorado's dominance. If Vegas wins Game 3, this goes to seven. If Colorado wins Game 3, it ends in five.
“MacKinnon vs Marner. Makar vs Theodore. The Presidents' Trophy curse vs nine years of Vegas institutional knowledge. The best remaining series in the 2026 playoffs starts Wednesday in Denver.”
— Pucky Editorial