Leon Draisaitl finished the 2025-26 regular season with 97 points in 71 games, a 1.37 points-per-game pace that ranks as his lowest since 2018-19. The Edmonton Oilers finished 41-30-11 with 93 points. They did not make the playoffs.
They lost the series 4-2. The season ended in the first round, not the Conference Finals.
The question is not whether Draisaitl regressed. Per MoneyPuck, he posted a 62% on-ice expected goals share across 65 tracked games at all situations. When he sat, that number dropped to 43%. The 19-point swing is the kind of separation usually reserved for a top-three Hart candidate. Connor McDavid's on/off split was nearly identical: 62% on, 42% off.
The question is whether Edmonton built a roster that could support what its two stars actually gave them. The answer, based on the underlying numbers and the first-round exit, is no.
Draisaitl's 1.37 points-per-game pace is a step backward from 1.49 the year before, 1.31 in 2023-24, and a 1.60 peak in 2022-23. Those are surface numbers, and they suggest a player whose curve is bending in the wrong direction at 30.
But the underlying metrics point to a different story. Draisaitl outscored his expected goals by +11.07 on the season, the kind of finishing surplus that elite shooters post when their skill is helping the model rather than fooling it. His shooting percentage of 18.8% sits below his career-best years but is not an outlier. He took 186 shots and converted 35 of them for goals, a rate that reflects genuine finishing ability rather than variance.
The drop in raw production is better explained by playing 71 games instead of 81, slightly reduced ice time (19:45 average), and a roster that could not sustain quality possession when McDavid was not on his line. The 62% on-ice expected goals share is elite. The 43% off-ice number is the problem.
Draisaitl took 1,104 faceoffs and won 57.0% of them, the highest faceoff percentage of his career. That is the foundation of Edmonton's territorial advantage when his line starts in the defensive zone, and it speaks to a player who has fully accepted center responsibilities on a roster that does not have another reliable option down the middle behind McDavid.
He was Edmonton's de facto 1B center while also running the league's most dangerous power-play unit, which generated 90.5% of expected goals on the man advantage per MoneyPuck. He scored 16 power-play goals and recorded 42 power-play points total (16 goals, 26 assists). That is 43% of his total offense coming with the man advantage.
The difference between Draisaitl and a player like David Pastrnak, who derives a similar share of his production from the power play, is that Pastrnak plays for a Boston team that has built three lines capable of holding leads. Edmonton's depth was the issue all season, and it showed up in the series against Anaheim.
What Edmonton Looked Like Without Its Stars
Draisaitl's on-ice xGF% of 62% dropped to 43% when he wasn't on the ice. McDavid's split was 62% on / 42% off. Both stars individually elevated Edmonton to elite possession territory. The team fell to a bottom-third club without them.
Look at the supporting cast through that lens. Mattias Janmark posted a 38% on-ice xGF%. Adam Henrique sat at 45%. Jason Dickinson ran a 41% mark with the toughest defensive zone deployment on the team. Darnell Nurse was at 46%. When Draisaitl was not on the ice with McDavid or his preferred wingers, he was being asked to lift bottom-six players who were underwater in their own minutes.
This is the context that makes the regular-season point total feel deceptive. Draisaitl was not asked to be a finisher on a balanced roster. He was asked to be one of two engines on a team where the third and fourth lines were getting outchanced badly. His 1.37 P/GP was earned in environments that would have buried lesser players entirely.
The Anaheim series made it clear. The Ducks won four of six games, eliminating Edmonton in the first round. The Oilers finished the regular season at 41-30-11 with 93 points, not good enough to earn a playoff spot and not good enough to survive a series where depth mattered. Draisaitl posted 3 goals and 7 assists across six games while logging 22+ minutes per night. He scored, he set up plays, he won faceoffs. Edmonton lost anyway.
- 62% on-ice xGF% vs 43% off-ice xGF% per MoneyPuck - a 19-point swing that is among the largest in the league for forwards with 60+ games played
- +11.07 goals above expected - Draisaitl is finishing well above the model, and the 18.8% shooting percentage on 186 shots suggests the skill is real, not variance
- 57.0% faceoff win rate on 1,104 draws - career-high, and the foundation of Edmonton's territorial advantage when his line starts in the defensive zone
- 42 power-play points (16 goals, 26 assists) on a unit converting at a 90.5% xGF% rate per MoneyPuck - Edmonton's power play was the best in the league, and Draisaitl was the trigger
- 1.37 P/GP - lowest since 2018-19, but the gap between his on-ice impact and Edmonton's depth is the more important number
- 19:45 average TOI - slightly down from prior years, which limits raw counting stats but reflects a coaching staff trying to manage minutes for a 30-year-old center playing all situations
- +13 plus/minus - third consecutive season at +13 or better, which is rare for a player carrying this much defensive responsibility
The question Edmonton faces is not whether Draisaitl is still elite. The 62% on-ice expected goals share says he is doing everything right. The question is whether the organization can build a roster around him and McDavid that can convert their dominance into sustained playoff success. The 43% off-ice number says the rest of the roster is not capable of that yet.
#29 · C · 71 GP