Jackson Blake generated 28.44 expected goals at 5v5 this season, the second-highest mark on Carolina behind only Seth Jarvis. He finished with 22 total goals. The six-goal gap is the entire story of the Hurricanes' most underrated sophomore season.
Blake's 174 shots on goal resulted in a 12.6% shooting percentage, but the underlying shot profile tells a more specific story: he created 41 high-danger chances at 5v5 and converted just 5 of them for a 12% rate. League average on high-danger chances sits in the 18-22% range depending on position. The volume is elite. The danger creation is elite. The finishing is third-line.
That alone would be interesting. The deeper story is what happened to Carolina's possession game when Blake was on the ice versus when he wasn't. Per MoneyPuck, with Blake on the ice at 5v5, Carolina posted a 61% expected goals share. With him off, that number dropped to 54%. A seven-point xGF% swing is the kind of on/off split usually reserved for top-line drivers, not second-year wingers making $905,833 per CapWages.
Start with the basic trajectory. In 2024-25, Blake played 80 games and produced 17 goals, 17 assists, 34 points, a 0.42 points-per-game pace. In 2025-26, he played 87 games across the regular season (per live standings data showing Carolina at 82 games played) and produced 22 goals, 31 assists, 53 points, a 0.61 points-per-game pace. That's a 45% jump in scoring rate, with the assist total nearly doubling.
The role expansion was real. Blake earned 12 of his 53 points (3 goals, 9 assists) on Carolina's power play, which ranked among the league's best structural units at 25.1% (per live standings data). The even-strength production - 19 goals, 22 assists, 41 points - came with the kind of underlying impact numbers that suggest this wasn't deployment-driven scoring.
Per MoneyPuck, Blake posted a 64% Corsi share at 5v5, genuinely top-of-the-league territory for a winger his age. The fact that Carolina's xGF% drops seven points when he's on the bench tells you the team isn't just carrying him through minutes. He's driving play.
Here's where the opportunity sits. Blake's 41 high-danger chances at 5v5 were the most of any Hurricanes forward who isn't named Stankoven or Jarvis. He converted 5 of them for a 12% rate. The gap between his shot generation and his finishing is where the value play lives.
The medium-danger numbers show similar patterns: 76 shots, 10 goals, a 13% conversion rate that's roughly in line with expectation but not above it. Add it up, and you get a player who was creating chances at a top-six rate and finishing at a replacement-level rate.
Blake's Shot Quality Says This Production Will Climb
Per MoneyPuck, Blake created 28.44 expected goals at 5v5, the second-highest mark on Carolina behind only Seth Jarvis. He generated 41 high-danger chances, the most of any Hurricanes forward who isn't named Stankoven or Jarvis. He finished with 22 goals.
A young player in his first full top-six season shooting below his expected output is a regression-positive bet. The shooting percentage is more likely to climb than fall. Players who generate this volume of high-danger looks don't keep finishing below expectation.
The good news for Carolina is that this kind of underperformance almost always corrects. Blake's 12% conversion rate on high-danger chances isn't a skill marker - it's variance. The question isn't whether he'll improve. It's when.
The possession metrics deserve more attention than they've gotten. Per MoneyPuck, a 61% xGF% on-ice is elite. A 64% Corsi share is genuinely top-of-the-league territory. The fact that Carolina's xGF% drops to 54% when Blake is on the bench tells you the team isn't just surviving his minutes.
Look at the company he keeps in the Carolina forward group. Logan Stankoven, who we wrote about as the centerpiece of Carolina's second-line solution, posts a 61% on-ice xGF% with a 7-point on/off split per MoneyPuck. Taylor Hall, who we covered as Carolina's quietest possession driver, sits at 60% with a 5-point split.
Blake is in that same conversation, and he's the youngest of the three by a wide margin. He's also doing it on a $905,833 cap hit per CapWages, with three years and $2.775 million total left on his contract. The cap math here is almost unfair.
The penalty differential reinforces the picture. Blake drew 23 penalties this season and took 20, a +3 net that doesn't sound impressive until you understand what drawing penalties signals: speed, puck protection, forechecking pressure that opponents have to interrupt with their sticks. Twenty-three drawn penalties is top-quartile for a winger his age.
This isn't a hagiography. There are things in Blake's profile that deserve attention.
The giveaway number is one. Ninety-two giveaways in 87 games is high for a winger. MoneyPuck's tracking flags 20 of those as defensive-zone giveaways, which puts him in the conversation with the team's lower-event defensemen. For context, Seth Jarvis had 23 d-zone giveaways in 71 games and Sebastian Aho had 30 in 79. Blake is in the same neighborhood as Carolina's top forwards on this metric, but on a team that lives and dies by puck management, it's a data point worth monitoring.
The deployment data also tells a story. Blake's 17.2% offensive zone starts and 3.8% defensive zone starts represent sheltered usage. Rod Brind'Amour is protecting his defensive responsibilities, and the faceoff number confirms it: Blake took 10 faceoffs all season and won zero. He's a pure winger, not an emergency center option.
The playoff sample through Carolina's current second-round series against Philadelphia (which Carolina leads 2-0 per live series data, having swept Ottawa 4-0 in Round 1) shows similar patterns. In nine playoff games, Blake produced 2 goals and 8 assists for 10 points, a 1.11 points-per-game pace well above his regular-season rate. But the goal volume is light, and his shot total over those nine games sits at 20, a 2.2 per game rate that's right around his regular-season norm. The chances are still there. The finishing remains the question mark.
This is where the contract becomes the analysis rather than the footnote. Per CapWages, Blake's $905,833 AAV runs through the 2027-28 season. He'll be a restricted free agent at 24, with arbitration rights and three years of top-six production behind him.
For Carolina, this is the kind of contract that builds playoff windows. The Hurricanes finished the regular season at 53-22-7 with 113 points (per live standings data), tied for the Metropolitan Division lead. They have significant money committed to their core, and a roster that needs young, cost-controlled production to fill out the top nine. Blake is producing top-six results on fourth-line money, and the team has him locked in at that number for three more seasons.
The projection here is straightforward. Blake's 174 shots, 22 goals, and 53 points came with elite possession metrics (61% xGF% on-ice per MoneyPuck) and below-average finishing on high-danger chances (12% conversion vs. 18-22% league average). If the finishing regresses to the mean, you're looking at a 25-28 goal, 60-point winger on a sub-$1M cap hit.
That's not a projection. That's just math. Blake generated 28.44 expected goals per MoneyPuck and finished with 22. The six-goal gap is the entire story. Close that gap, and you have a legitimate top-six winger who's being paid like a depth piece.
The Hurricanes are betting that Blake's shot generation and possession impact are real, and that his finishing will normalize. The data supports that bet. His 174 shots ranked among the top forwards on the team. His 61% on-ice xGF% per MoneyPuck was elite. His 64% Corsi share per MoneyPuck was top-of-the-league territory.
The only thing missing was the finishing. And finishing, for a 22-year-old in his second NHL season, is the most correctable skill in hockey.
Blake's 87-game regular season produced 22 goals, 31 assists, 53 points, a +8 rating at 5v5, 23 penalties drawn, and 20 penalties taken. He took 174 shots, generated 28.44 expected goals per MoneyPuck, and posted a 61% on-ice xGF% that was seven points higher than Carolina's mark with him off the ice.
The shooting percentage will climb. The expected goals will convert. And when they do, Carolina will have one of the best value contracts in hockey locked in for three more years at $905,833 per CapWages.
That's not a hope. That's a statistical likelihood. Blake's underlying numbers say he's already a top-six possession driver. The goals just need to catch up to the chances. And in hockey, they almost always do.
#53 · RW · 81 GP