Marcus Foligno stripped the puck at center ice, drove wide, and beat Scott Wedgewood shorthanded at 16:55 of the second period. The Minnesota Wild led 5-4 at Ball Arena. They had clawed back from a 4-2 deficit. They had momentum.
Sixty-nine seconds later, Devon Toews scored to make it 5-5. The window closed.
Colorado went on to win 9-6 in Game 1 of their second-round series, and that single sequence - Foligno's shorthanded goal followed immediately by Toews' response - tells you everything about the difference between a Western Conference top seed and a team hoping to exceed expectations.
The Colorado Avalanche (55-16-11, 121 points) finished 17 points ahead of Minnesota (46-24-12, 104 points) in the regular season. That gap doesn't guarantee Colorado wins every exchange. It guarantees they can afford to lose an exchange and still win the game. Minnesota can't.
The Shorthanded Goal That Didn't Matter
Foligno's goal should have shifted the game. Instead, it became another entry in the ledger of Minnesota moments that looked significant until Colorado simply kept playing.
At 16:55 of the second period, the Wild had survived Colorado's early chaos - three goals in 2:01 during the first period - and Quinn Hughes had scored at 12:43 to tie the game at 4-4. Foligno's shorthanded tally gave Minnesota the lead at 5-4.
Then Toews took a feed from Valeri Nichushkin and Sam Malinski at 18:04 and beat Jesper Wallstedt on a simple rush entry to tie the game at 5-5. No manufactured set play. No special scheme. Colorado just kept attacking, and Minnesota couldn't hold the line long enough to make Foligno's goal mean anything.
The third period turned into target practice. Cale Makar scored at 3:21, assisted by Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog, to make it 6-5. Nazem Kadri made it 7-5 at 5:43, with Toews picking up his second assist of the night. Mats Zuccarello scored at 16:01 to make it 7-6, then Makar added another at 17:06 to make it 8-6. MacKinnon capped the night with a goal at 17:52 to make it 9-6.
Final score: Colorado 9, Minnesota 6. Colorado leads the series 1-0.
What the Numbers Say About Margin
Colorado outshot Minnesota 43-36 and posted a 56.6% expected goals share at all strengths, per MoneyPuck. Those numbers reflect what happened in real time: Minnesota generated chances, but Colorado generated better ones and converted at a higher rate.
MacKinnon finished with one goal and two assists. His on-ice expected goals percentage at five-on-five this season was 65.0%, per MoneyPuck, the mark of a player who tilts the ice every shift. Makar's two goals gave him 1.6 goals above expected for the season, and his 60.0% on-ice xGF% matches MacKinnon's impact.
Toews, who finished with one goal and two assists, has been below expected this season (6.9 xG, -3.9 goals vs expected in 68 games), but his 55.0% on-ice xGF% at five-on-five reflects his ability to drive play even when his own shooting luck runs cold. Against Minnesota, he was the player who answered Foligno's goal and set up two of Colorado's three goals in the opening 5:43 of the third period.
Minnesota's best players couldn't match that output. Kirill Kaprizov finished with one assist and has been excellent this season (38.4 xG, +6.6 goals vs expected, 63.0% on-ice xGF%), but he managed just one shot on goal. Hughes contributed one goal and two assists, and his 60.0% on-ice xGF% suggests he's been a legitimate driver for Minnesota, but the Wild couldn't sustain offensive pressure long enough to make Colorado's defense work.
Ryan Hartman led Minnesota with seven shots on goal and scored in the second period. Vladimir Tarasenko scored in the second period, and Marcus Johansson scored in the first period, but those goals came before Colorado's third-period surge.
The Third Period Is the Story
Colorado scored three times in 5:43 to start the third period. That's not luck. That's a structured response to an opponent who couldn't recover from a single answer goal in the second.
Minnesota won 63.1% of the faceoffs, outhit Colorado 23-26, and blocked 13 shots to Colorado's 11. None of it mattered. The Avalanche didn't need to dominate possession or physicality. They just needed to score when it counted.
Wallstedt stopped 34 of 43 shots, but he faced high-danger chances all night. Wedgewood saved 30 of 36, and while Minnesota's shooting percentage was respectable, the quality of Colorado's offense overwhelmed the Wild's ability to defend in transition.
Colorado's power play went 1-for-1, and their penalty kill allowed Foligno's shorthanded goal. In a vacuum, those special teams numbers look poor. In context, they didn't matter. Colorado scored eight goals at even strength and never let Minnesota believe they could control the game.
What This Means for the Series
Minnesota won their first-round series against Dallas in six games and entered this matchup with belief. They have legitimate top-end talent in Kaprizov, Hughes, and Zuccarello, and their depth scoring has been functional enough to win playoff games.
But functional depth doesn't beat elite depth when the margin for error is this thin. Foligno's shorthanded tally was the exact kind of play that can shift a game. It required skill, effort, and timing. Colorado's response required none of those things. Toews just needed to finish a rush chance, and the Avalanche needed to keep playing their game.
The question for Minnesota heading into Game 2 is whether they have the margin to compete with a team that answers every push with three of its own. The answer, based on this game, is no. The Wild can win individual exchanges against playoff teams, but they can't survive the moments when championship-caliber teams decide to close the door.
Colorado's regular season expected goals percentage at five-on-five was 56.9%, per MoneyPuck. Minnesota's was 51.5%. Those numbers don't guarantee outcomes in any single game, but over a series, they dictate who has room to absorb a bad shift and who doesn't.
Foligno's goal could have been a turning point. Instead, it became another case study in how the Avalanche suffocate opponents who give them the smallest opening. Minnesota trails 1-0 in the series. They'll need more than momentum to even this up.