Montreal CanadiensFour games. Three overtimes. Twenty-three combined goals. The first-round series between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens has been the most entertaining matchup of the 2026 first round, and it is dead even heading into Game 5 at Amalie Arena on Wednesday night.
Brandon Hagel has six goals in four games for Tampa Bay. That is not a typo. Jake Guentzel has seven points and has chemistry with Nikita Kucherov that took about two shifts to develop. On the other side, rookie defenseman Lane Hutson has four points and is making the kind of plays that have Larry Robinson comparisons starting up again on Montreal radio. The Canadiens, the second-youngest team in the playoffs, have hung with the experienced Lightning shift for shift, and the series is going to a best-of-three with home ice for Tampa Bay.
This was supposed to be a learning experience for Montreal. They finished the season with 106 points, a 12-point jump from the year before, and a roster built around 21-year-old Cole Caufield, 24-year-old Nick Suzuki, 21-year-old Juraj Slafkovsky, and the 22-year-old Hutson. They drew Tampa Bay - a team with three Stanley Cup runs in the past five years and a Conn Smythe winner in Andrei Vasilevskiy - and the conventional wisdom was that the Lightning would handle them in five.
Through four games, the Canadiens have outshot Tampa Bay 132-126. They have won the special-teams battle. They have stayed even in scoring chances and beaten Vasilevskiy enough times to make him look mortal - he has an .882 save percentage in this series, the worst of any starter still alive in Round 1. Montreal has done everything but figure out how to stop Hagel.
Brandon Hagel Is Stealing This Series
Hagel was acquired from Chicago in 2022 for two first-round picks and Boris Katchouk. At the time, the trade was considered an overpay. Hagel had 21 goals and 37 points for Chicago, was a restricted free agent, and Tampa Bay was burning a lot of draft capital for a winger they hoped to grow into a top-six role. Three years later, he has six goals in four playoff games against Montreal and has become the most dangerous five-on-five forward in the series.
He scored twice in Game 1 - the overtime winner included - and he scored twice more in Game 2. He has at least one goal in every game of this series. He has done it from the slot, from the half-wall, from a wraparound, and from a redirect off a Hedman point shot. The Canadiens have not figured out how to keep him out of dangerous ice and the Lightning's coaching staff has aggressively put him on the ice when Montreal has been changing.
“Six goals in four games. He has at least one goal in every game of the series. The Canadiens have not figured out how to take him away.”
— The Hagel Number
The Lightning's top line of Guentzel-Kucherov-Hagel has been a problem all spring. Guentzel has seven points. Kucherov has six. Hagel has seven. They have been on the ice for 11 of Tampa Bay's 14 even-strength goals in this series. They are creating against any defensive look Montreal throws at them.
| Player | GP | G | A | PTS | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel (TBL) | 4 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| Jake Guentzel (TBL) | 4 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 12 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TBL) | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 |
| Lane Hutson (MTL) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
Then There Is Lane Hutson
The story Montreal wanted, though, is the kid. Hutson was drafted 62nd overall in 2022. He played four years at Boston University. He arrived in Montreal full-time at the start of 2024-25 and immediately became the most exciting young defenseman in hockey - 64 points in his rookie year, the Calder Trophy, and the kind of skating ability that makes coaches rewrite their breakouts to take advantage of it.
He has four points in four playoff games. He has been the Canadiens' best defenseman against the Lightning's top line. He has played 24 minutes a night. He has scored twice and assisted twice and been the player Montreal goes to when they need to start an offensive sequence. The comparisons that started circulating last spring - the Larry Robinson comparisons, the Brian Leetch comparisons - have not gone quiet during this series. They have gotten louder.
The Canadiens drafted Slafkovsky first overall in 2022 and have been waiting for him to take a step forward in playoff hockey. He has three goals in four games. His Game 4 included two goals and a shift that ended with him driving Mikhail Sergachev into the boards on the forecheck and Tampa Bay calling timeout. He is 21. He is going to be a problem for Tampa Bay's defense in the back half of this series.
How Each Team Wins Game 5
For Tampa Bay - keep feeding Hagel. He is hot, the Canadiens have not solved the matchup, and you do not pull off the gas in a tied series. Get him 18 minutes and 22 shifts and trust that he creates one more goal.
For Montreal - lean on Hutson. He has been the Canadiens' best player and the most consistent matchup advantage. Get him on the ice against the Hagel line as much as the road game allows. Then trust Caufield and Suzuki to convert one more chance against a Vasilevskiy who has not been himself.
Vasilevskiy Has Not Been Himself
The Lightning have won this many big games in the past five years specifically because of Vasilevskiy. He won a Conn Smythe in 2021. He has the highest playoff save percentage of any active goalie. He has been the constant in every Tampa Bay run since 2018. In this series, he has been ordinary - .882 save percentage, 11 goals on 93 shots, including the overtime winner that gave Montreal Game 3 in a building that has not seen playoff hockey in five years.
Across the ice, Jakub Dobes has been better than Tampa Bay expected. The 23-year-old Czech goaltender, who took over the starting role from Sam Montembeault in March, has an .883 save percentage in this series and has stolen Game 3 in overtime. He is not Vasilevskiy. But he has not had to be. He has just had to give Montreal a chance and the Canadiens' offense has done the rest.
If the Lightning are going to put this series away, Vasilevskiy needs to play to his standard. He has shown flashes - 26 saves in Game 4, including a glove robbery on Caufield in the second period that should have been a goal - but he has not strung together a dominant 60 minutes yet. Tampa Bay is undefeated in this series when he gives up two or fewer goals. They are 0-2 when he gives up three or more.
Tampa Bay's Top Line
Guentzel, Kucherov, and Hagel have outscored Montreal's top group 11-4 in head-to-head minutes. They are the matchup advantage Tampa Bay was built around.
Vasilevskiy's Numbers
.882 save percentage. Eleven goals against in four games. He has not stolen a game and the Canadiens are pushing because of it.
Hutson on the Power Play
Montreal is 4-for-13 on the man advantage in this series and Hutson is quarterbacking it. One more conversion in Game 5 and the home crowd in Tampa Bay starts to feel uneasy.
Can Slafkovsky Stay Hot?
Three goals in four games and a physical edge that has changed how Tampa Bay defends his line. If he keeps producing, Montreal probably wins this series.
The series is open. Tampa Bay has the experience edge, the goaltending pedigree, and the home-ice advantage in two of the next three games. Montreal has the youth, the energy, the goaltending the Lightning did not expect, and the most exciting rookie defenseman in the league running their power play.
Game 5 is Wednesday in Tampa Bay. Game 6 is Friday at Bell Centre. If it gets to Game 7, it is in Tampa Bay on Sunday. Three games in five nights, the series is even, the goalies are wobbling, and the entire matchup turns on whether the Canadiens' kids keep doing things kids are not supposed to do in playoff hockey - and whether Hagel can keep doing things players paid like Hagel are not supposed to do.
#38 · LW · 78 GP