Dylan Holloway closed the regular season with two assists in the St. Louis Blues' 5-3 victory over Utah, setting up goals by Robert Thomas at 8:14 and 11:07 of the second period that helped secure Thomas's hat trick in what proved to be the final game for both teams. With the Blues missing the playoffs at 86 points and Utah claiming a postseason berth at 92 points, Holloway's performance underscored why he remains central to St. Louis's offseason planning despite trade speculation.
The 23-year-old forward's impact extends beyond the scoresheet contributions that helped Thomas complete his three-goal performance. Holloway's 55.0% on-ice expected goals share, per MoneyPuck, represents an 11-percentage-point advantage over his teammates' collective 44.0% off-ice rate - the type of play-driving ability that makes other forwards more effective and creates difficult decisions for management evaluating roster construction.
Thomas finished the season with elite conversion numbers, posting 8.2 goals above expectation across 82 games while maintaining a 54.0% on-ice expected goals share. His connection with Holloway in the second period demonstrated how skilled finishers benefit from linemates who consistently create advantageous situations. Thomas's three goals came with Holloway on ice for two of them, including the sequence that gave St. Louis control of a back-and-forth contest.
Holloway's underlying metrics reveal why he generates trade interest despite St. Louis's desire to retain him. His 17.5 expected goals in 58 games projects to a 0.30 per-game rate that would translate to 25 expected goals over a full season, while he's converting at 4.5 goals above expectation. The combination of personal production and teammate elevation - maintaining that 55.0% on-ice expected goals share while producing above his expected rate - creates exactly the profile that contending teams pursue.
The contrast becomes apparent when examining other Blues forwards. Pavel Buchnevich manages a 47.0% on-ice expected goals share that matches the team's off-ice rate exactly, suggesting neutral impact despite 19.1 expected goals in 80 games. Jordan Kyrou posts a 59.0% on-ice rate but his 18.5 expected goals in 71 games come with minus-0.5 goals versus expectation, indicating he benefits from linemates more than he elevates them.
St. Louis finished at 49.4% expected goals share at five-on-five, placing them in the bottom third of the league and contributing to their six-point gap behind Utah for the final playoff position. When Holloway plays, that number improves to 55.0% - a six-percentage-point swing that represents the difference between competitive hockey and the struggles that defined much of their season.
Utah entered the final game with superior underlying numbers at 52.4% five-on-five expected goals share, having secured their playoff position despite losing three of their final four games. The Mammoth's 268 goals for ranked among the Western Conference's better offensive outputs, but their 240 goals against suggested defensive vulnerabilities that Holloway's line exploited during his 17:06 of ice time.
Logan Mailloux's game-winning goal at 17:03 of the third period capped a season-ending victory that highlighted both teams' trajectories. Utah's 92 points represent a successful season for a franchise still establishing its identity, while St. Louis's 86 points fall short of expectations despite late-season improvements. The Blues' 231 goals for ranked last in their division, underscoring why players who elevate offensive production become valuable.
Holloway's contract status and age profile create the foundation for offseason speculation. At 23 with proven NHL production and remaining upside, he represents the type of player that rebuilding teams want to retain and contending teams covet. His ability to improve linemate performance makes him valuable regardless of deployment, while his expected goals rate suggests he could handle increased responsibility.
The Blues face decisions about their competitive timeline after missing the playoffs despite late-season momentum. Their 17.9% power play ranked among the league's worst, while their 76.7% penalty kill contributed to defensive struggles throughout the campaign. Players like Holloway who drive play at even strength become more valuable when special teams require attention.
Thomas's hat trick performance, completed with an empty-net goal, demonstrated both his finishing ability and how he benefits from strong linemates. His 13.8 expected goals in 63 games show consistent shot generation, while his 8.2 goals above expectation indicate elite conversion that becomes sustainable when paired with players who create advantageous situations.
Colton Parayko played his 800th NHL game in the season finale, providing veteran stability on a blue line that will undergo evaluation this offseason. The defenseman's milestone came in a victory that showcased younger players like Holloway who could form the core of St. Louis's next competitive window.
The Blues' four-game winning streak to close the season arrived too late to impact playoff positioning but demonstrated the potential that makes roster decisions complex. Holloway's contributions throughout that stretch, including his two-assist performance against Utah, show why management must balance immediate trade value against long-term team building.
Utah's playoff berth validates their approach while highlighting areas for improvement. Clayton Keller and MacKenzie Weegar each recorded two assists in the loss, maintaining their strong individual seasons despite the team's late struggles. Lawson Crouse, Michael Carcone, and Kailer Yamamoto provided Utah's goals in a contest that lacked playoff implications for the visitors.
Watch how the Blues approach the offseason after Holloway's strong finish to the campaign. His ability to drive play and elevate teammates makes him a building block for sustained success, but trade interest from playoff teams creates opportunities to accelerate their retool. Either way, his performance against Utah reinforced why he's become a central figure in St. Louis's franchise planning - whether that future unfolds in a Blues uniform or elsewhere.