Luke Evangelista's shootout winner delivered Nashville a 5-4 overtime victory over Los Angeles on Friday night, with the dramatic finish overshadowing how two teams fighting for their playoff lives combined to waste nine power play opportunities in a game that screamed desperation but whispered execution.
With Nashville and Los Angeles locked in a tight Western Conference wild card chase, this wasn't a game either side could afford to treat special teams as an afterthought. Yet that's exactly what happened, as the Kings went 0-for-6 and the Predators managed 0-for-3, turning what should have been a clinic in man-advantage execution into a cautionary tale about squandered opportunities.
The broader context makes this power play futility even more damning. According to MoneyPuck, Nashville's season-long expected goals percentage sits at just 48.0% - suggesting they've been fortunate to maintain their current playoff position - while Los Angeles holds a more sustainable 51.0% xGF%. Friday's special teams decline reinforced Nashville's underlying struggles while highlighting Los Angeles's inability to capitalize when mathematics favor them most.
The Comeback That Almost Wasn't
Nashville built an early 2-0 lead in the first period on Filip Forsberg's opener at 0:52 and Zachary L'Heureux's goal at 3:47. Jonathan Marchessault extended the lead to 3-0 at 2:02 of the second period before Adrian Kempe got Los Angeles on the board at 6:09. Steven Stamkos answered for Nashville at 8:19 to make it 4-1, seemingly putting the game away before Los Angeles mounted their rally.
But the Kings' response revealed the evening's underlying tension. Kempe's second goal at 13:29 cut the deficit to 4-2, followed by Scott Laughton's goal at 15:45 that brought Los Angeles within one. When Joel Armia tied the game at 9:57 of the third period, it marked the completion of a 3-1 run that happened entirely without power play assistance.
The advanced metrics tell a more nuanced story than the dramatic comeback suggests. Kempe's underlying numbers - 24.36 expected goals and 54% xGF% this season - indicate his two-goal performance aligned with his analytical profile as one of Los Angeles's most dangerous even-strength threats. Meanwhile, Forsberg's season-long 24.88 xG and 55% xGF% suggest Nashville's early lead reflected their top players performing to expectation rather than getting lucky.
Where Special Teams Went to Die
The power play failures weren't random breakdowns - they were structured decline that revealed both teams' structural weaknesses when given extra space and time. Nashville's season-long 22.3% power play efficiency and Los Angeles's 17.9% rate suggested both units should have found success, particularly given the volume of opportunities.
The Kings' 0-for-6 power play performance understated the magnitude of wasting six opportunities in a game where every point matters for playoff positioning - a structured failure that interim head coach D.J. Smith will need to address as the stretch run intensifies.
Nashville coach Andrew Brunette's assessment proved more pointed: "You can't expect to win games in this league going 0-for-3 on the power play, especially in a game this important," he told Brooks Bratten of NashvillePredators.com. The frustration in Brunette's voice reflected the broader organizational concern about special teams consistency as the Predators fight to extend their season.
The penalty differential - Los Angeles taking six infractions to Nashville's three - created the mathematical framework for the Predators to seize control. Instead, Nashville's power play unit, featuring elite talent like Stamkos and Forsberg, managed zero goals on three opportunities, a failure rate that could prove costly as the playoff race intensifies.
The Numbers Behind the Narrative
Both goaltenders faced similar workloads - Juuse Saros making 29 saves on 33 shots for Nashville while Darcy Kuemper stopped 29 of 34 for Los Angeles - but the shot volume equality masked deeper territorial advantages. The Kings recorded 32 hits compared to Nashville's 19, suggesting a more physical approach that didn't translate to power play success.
The even-strength dominance becomes more striking when considering team construction. Los Angeles's 51.0% Corsi percentage and 52.0% shot attempt share this season indicate a team built to control play at 5-on-5, making their special teams struggles more problematic for long-term success. Nashville's 49.0% Fenwick percentage and 51.0% Corsi suggest they've relied more heavily on special teams and goaltending to maintain their playoff position.
Marchessault's two-point night (1G-1A) and Kempe's two goals stood out not just for their production but for their even-strength timing. Both players capitalized when the game flow favored skill over structure, a dynamic that favors Los Angeles in a playoff format where special teams opportunities often decrease.
Playoff Race Mathematics
This result shifts the Western Conference wild card picture in subtle but significant ways. The overtime victory gives Nashville two points while Los Angeles earns one in the standings, but the underlying analytics suggest the Kings hold advantages that extend beyond the current standings.
Los Angeles's superior expected goals differential (xGF 222.6, xGA 217.6) compared to Nashville's concerning numbers (xGF 227.0, xGA 243.0) indicates the Kings have been unlucky to trail in the standings race. Friday's power play futility represents exactly the type of execution failure that could cost Los Angeles a playoff spot despite generating the better underlying numbers.
The shootout format decided this specific game, but both teams' inability to capitalize on special teams opportunities revealed structural concerns that could prove decisive as the season progresses. Nashville's victory came through clutch individual performance rather than structured excellence, while Los Angeles's defeat reflected their ongoing struggles to convert analytical advantages into actual results.
For Nashville, maintaining their playoff chase despite underlying metrics that suggest regression requires continued special teams improvement and goaltending excellence from Saros. For Los Angeles, Friday's loss represents another missed opportunity to separate themselves in a tight wild card race where margin for error continues shrinking with each passing game.