The Colorado Avalanche are pacing for a franchise-record 125 points and lead the NHL with a dominant 48-14-4-6 record. They've already matched their modern franchise high of 48 wins with 10 games remaining. Yet buried within this historic season is a $2.75 million problem that could derail their championship aspirations when the games matter most.
Brett Kulak has played 70 games for the league's best team, posting numbers that would make any general manager wince. His 46% expected goals share when on ice compared to 53% when he's off it tells the story of a player actively working against Colorado's statistical dominance. Per MoneyPuck, the Avalanche control 56.5% of expected goals at 5-on-5 overall - until their veteran defenseman takes the ice and transforms them into a below-average possession team.
The contract runs through 2026-27 per CapWages, meaning this isn't just a bad season - it's a multi-year albatross dragging down a franchise in its championship window.
#27 · D · 82 GPWhen Analytics Contradict the Standings
Colorado's league-leading +87 goal differential and 99.9% playoff odds mask a fundamental roster construction flaw. While the team has surged 11 wins ahead of last season's pace at this point, Kulak's underlying metrics suggest they're winning despite him, not because of him.
His 46% on-ice Corsi share compared to 55% off-ice represents a massive territorial drop-off for a team built on possession dominance. The gap becomes even more stark when considering Colorado's recent 10-game sample, where they've averaged 32.9 shots per game while allowing just 25.8 - elite ratios that Kulak consistently undermines with his presence.
The Veteran Experiment Gone Wrong
At 32, Kulak was supposed to provide the steady veteran presence that championship teams require from their depth defensemen. Instead, he's become statistical evidence of how quickly "veteran leadership" can become "expensive liability."
His production this season - 1 goal and 10 assists in 70 games - reflects a player who can't contribute offensively while actively hurting his team defensively. The 1.33% shooting percentage on 75 shots suggests either catastrophically poor shot selection or a fundamental inability to get to dangerous areas.
More concerning are the 53 giveaways and 16 penalties taken - numbers that create the kind of self-inflicted wounds that eliminate teams in May and June. For context, Colorado's elite 5-on-5 play has been complemented by a 21.6% power play in recent games, making Kulak's penalty-taking particularly damaging to their special teams advantage.
The Championship Math Problem
Championship teams typically get positive contributions from players earning nearly $3 million annually. Kulak's metrics suggest Colorado might actually improve by replacing him with a league-minimum option who can break even in possession battles.
Recent lineup decisions hint at growing concern within the organization. According to Peter Baugh of The Athletic, rookie defenseman Calen Addison was promoted from the press box to pair with Samuel Girard for Colorado's recent game against Vegas, with coach Jared Bednar experimenting with different defensive combinations as the playoffs approach.
The Avalanche's 13-point lead over Dallas in the Central Division has already locked up the top seed, but their recent 4-6-0 stretch over 10 games (from late January through early February) revealed vulnerabilities that playoff teams will target. During that rough patch, they allowed 4.3 goals per game while managing just 2.9 - exactly the kind of defensive breakdowns that Kulak's negative metrics help explain.
What the Advanced Numbers Reveal
The MoneyPuck data paints a damning picture of Kulak's impact:
• 46% xGF% on-ice vs 53% off-ice: A 7-percentage-point swing that transforms Colorado from elite to average • 75 shots, 1 goal: A 1.33% shooting percentage that ranks among the worst for regular defensemen • 53 giveaways in 70 games: Creating unnecessary pressure in Colorado's system • 16 penalties taken: More disadvantageous situations for a team that thrives 5-on-5
Compare these numbers to the Toews-Malinski pairing, which posts a 64.3% expected goals share over 116 minutes of 5-on-5 play, and the gap becomes staggering. Colorado has elite defensive depth when deployed correctly - Kulak simply isn't part of that equation.
The Playoff Reality Check
"[We] found a way to kind of get incrementally better as the game went on. We did some good things on the offensive side," coach Jared Bednar said after a recent 3-2 win over Winnipeg, highlighting the incremental improvements that define championship teams.
Kulak's metrics suggest he's moving in the opposite direction. His inability to contribute offensively while posting negative possession numbers makes him exactly the kind of player who gets revealed against elite competition. Teams that win Stanley Cups can't afford passengers making $2.75 million to actively hurt their chances.
The harsh mathematics of playoff hockey demand contribution from every roster spot. Colorado's underlying dominance - evidenced by their pace for 125 points and franchise-record win total - makes Kulak's negative impact even more glaring. They've achieved historic success while carrying dead weight that costs nearly $3 million against the salary cap.
The Contract Trap
At $2.75 million annually through 2026-27, Kulak represents the exact type of contract that prevents good teams from becoming great ones. That money could address depth scoring, provide goaltending insurance, or acquire a defenseman who actually improves possession metrics rather than cratering them.
For a franchise that has already clinched the Central Division but faces the pressure of converting regular season dominance into playoff success, every dollar matters. Kulak's contract isn't just bad value - it's an active impediment to roster construction that will handicap Colorado's championship window for years to come.
The Avalanche are 10 games away from potentially setting franchise records for wins and points. They've built a juggernaut that leads the NHL in nearly every meaningful category. Yet their most expensive defensive depth piece remains their biggest liability, a $2.75 million reminder that even historic seasons can carry key weaknesss.