Connor McDavid collected three assists and Leon Draisaitl scored on the power play before leaving with an injury, but the Edmonton Oilers' 3-1 victory over the Nashville Predators at Rogers Place on Monday night revealed a concerning truth about their playoff push. Strip away McDavid's 111 points in 67 games and Draisaitl's 96 in 64, and you're left with a supporting cast that's increasingly unable to carry the load when it matters most. Nashville sits 11th in the Western Conference, three points out of a playoff spot, yet Edmonton needed McDavid to orchestrate every meaningful offensive sequence to beat them.
The Story
The Oilers controlled this game from the opening faceoff, winning 30 of 52 draws and outshooting Nashville 30-27, but the underlying structure told a more complicated story. Draisaitl's power-play goal at 3:12 of the first period came off a McDavid feed, the kind of elite playmaking that has defined Edmonton's season. Matthew Savoie doubled the lead in the second period with McDavid earning another assist, then Zach Hyman sealed it with an empty-netter with 1:07 remaining - again, off a McDavid pass.
The concerning moment came midway through the first period when Ozzy Wiesblatt delivered a clean hit on Draisaitl, who left the ice briefly before returning for two shifts and then disappearing for the remainder of the game. Without their second-best player, Edmonton's offensive structure became entirely dependent on McDavid creating chances for role players who couldn't consistently finish them.
Nashville's lone goal came from Fedor Svechkov at 4:52 of the third period, a deflection off assists from Nicolas Hague and Justin Barron that briefly threatened Edmonton's lead. But the Predators, managing just 27 shots against Connor Ingram's 26 saves, couldn't generate sustained pressure against an Oilers team that should have been vulnerable with Draisaitl sidelined.
Systems & Structure
The advanced metrics from this game expose Edmonton's fundamental problem, per MoneyPuck. At 5-on-5, the Oilers carry a 51.6% expected goals share this season, respectable but not elite. More telling is how that number breaks down by player: McDavid posts a 62% on-ice xGF% while the team drops to just 41% without him. Draisaitl shows similar dominance at 62% on-ice versus 43% off-ice.
The depth forwards tell a different story entirely. Trent Frederic has been a liability, with the team's xGF% falling to 49% when he's on the ice compared to 51% without him. His 5-on-5 goal differential of minus-15 (12 goals for, 27 against) represents exactly the kind of depth scoring problem that haunts playoff teams. Adam Henrique, acquired to provide veteran leadership, has been even worse: 45% on-ice xGF% and a brutal 11-24 goal differential at even strength.
Edmonton's power play remains elite at 89.6% xGF%, but that's entirely driven by their top unit. When Draisaitl left Monday night, the Oilers managed just one power-play opportunity the rest of the way, going 0-for-1 after his departure. Their penalty kill, sitting at just 8.3% xGF%, continues to hemorrhage quality chances, though Nashville couldn't capitalize on their three opportunities.
The faceoff dominance (57.7% to Nashville's 42.3%) should have translated to more territorial control, but Edmonton's inability to convert possession into sustained pressure without their stars suggests a team that's tactically limited beyond its elite players.
The Players Who Mattered
McDavid's three-assist performance was vintage playmaking, but the underlying numbers reveal how much heavy lifting he's doing. His 62% on-ice xGF% represents a 21-point swing from the team's performance without him, per MoneyPuck's models. At 24:08 of ice time, he's being asked to carry an increasingly heavy load as the season progresses.
Savoie's goal was his 10th of the season, a respectable total for a 22-year-old center, but his 44.3% faceoff percentage and minus-1 rating suggest he's still learning how to impact winning at the NHL level. His 51% on-ice xGF% is exactly league average, which makes him a useful depth piece but not someone who can drive play independently.
Hyman's empty-net goal was his 27th of the season in just 48 games, an impressive 0.92 points per game pace. More importantly, his 63% on-ice xGF% suggests he's one of the few Oilers forwards who actually makes the team better when he's on the ice, per MoneyPuck. His 30.58 expected goals in 48 games indicate he's been slightly unlucky with his finishing, running 3.58 goals below expectation.
For Nashville, Svechkov's goal was his second of the season and extended his three-game point streak. At 50% on-ice xGF%, he's been a neutral possession player for a Predators team that desperately needs more offensive production from its depth forwards.
What the Numbers Say
• McDavid's load: His 62% on-ice xGF% versus 41% off-ice represents the largest individual impact differential on either team, highlighting Edmonton's dangerous dependence on one player
• Depth scoring crisis: Edmonton's bottom-six forwards combine for a minus-39 goal differential at 5-on-5, with Frederic (minus-15) and Henrique (minus-13) leading the way in the wrong direction
• Special teams gap: Edmonton's power play converted at 25% (1-for-4) while Nashville went scoreless on three opportunities, a difference that decided the game
• Shot quality advantage: The Oilers generated 2.3 expected goals to Nashville's 1.8, per MoneyPuck, but needed an empty-netter to secure the victory
• Faceoff dominance wasted: Edmonton's 57.7% faceoff percentage should have created more sustained pressure, but they managed just 30 shots despite controlling the dot
• Goaltending differential: Ingram's .963 save percentage on 27 shots was significantly better than Nashville's .931 on 29 shots, masking Edmonton's offensive limitations
Looking Ahead
This victory moves Edmonton to 73 points in 67 games, keeping them third in the Pacific Division but just two points behind Anaheim. The standings context makes every game crucial, but the underlying structure raises questions about sustainability. If Draisaitl's injury proves serious, the Oilers will be forced to rely even more heavily on McDavid's playmaking to generate offense.
Nashville, meanwhile, falls to 67 points in 65 games, three points behind the final Western Conference wild card spot. Their 1-2-1 record on this five-game road trip has damaged their playoff hopes, and their inability to capitalize on Edmonton's depth issues suggests a team that lacks the finishing ability to make a serious postseason push.
The broader concern for Edmonton isn't this specific victory, but what it reveals about their roster construction. As we explored in our coverage of their overtime loss to St. Louis, the Oilers have struggled to translate possession advantages into consistent offensive production. Monday night's win came against a Nashville team that's been mediocre all season, yet Edmonton needed McDavid to touch every significant offensive play to secure two points.
With the trade deadline passed and rosters locked, the Oilers must find internal solutions to their depth scoring problem. The alternative is a playoff run that lives and dies with McDavid's ability to create offense for teammates who can't consistently finish. That's a dangerous foundation for any Stanley Cup contender, regardless of how brilliant their best player might be.
What They Said
The Oilers face a crucial stretch without one of their superstars, and Kris Knoblauch isn't sugarcoating the challenge ahead. The head coach acknowledged the obvious reality: "Our game is going to take a dip on the offensive side, especially on the power play. Five on five you don't have one of the best players on the ice, playing 20 to 24 minutes a night."
With Leon Draisaitl's status uncertain after leaving the game, Knoblauch emphasized a tactical shift. "It's really important that our team maybe simplifies our game. We're not going to be able to score as many goals, so we're not going to be able to outscore our troubles. So it's going to be very important we play good defensive hockey."
The message resonated with his players, who understand the stakes. Zach Hyman, riding a 28-goal campaign through 49 games, delivered the bottom line with playoff-race urgency: "We're at a point in the season where we don't have a choice. We have to play well. We have to win games. We have to close games out. We have to play strong defensively."
Matthew Savoie captured the collective responsibility facing Edmonton's depth players: "Obviously when it's a player like Leon, it's got to be a committee of guys that step up and fill different roles and really contribute to us having success because this is a big part of our season."