MacKenzie Weegar has scored three goals in 63 games. For a defenseman who averaged 14 goals over his previous two seasons, that's not just cold - it's arctic. But here's what the Utah Mammoth got when they traded three second-round picks for him at the deadline: a minute-munching defender whose underlying numbers suggest the goals will come, even if his shooting percentage never recovers from its current 2.3% crater.
The question isn't whether Weegar can sustain his current pace. He can't. Nobody shoots 2.3% forever, especially not someone who averaged 6.9% over the previous three seasons. The real question is whether Utah acquired a 32-year-old defenseman in decline or a proven commodity experiencing the worst shooting luck of his career.
#52 · D · 79 GPThe Case Against Sustainability
Start with the obvious: Weegar's offensive production has fallen off a cliff. His 0.35 points per game this season represents a 40% drop from last year's 0.58 mark and a 44% decline from his career-best 0.63 in 2023-24. Those aren't small variations. Those are the numbers of a player whose game has fundamentally changed.
The age curve for NHL defensemen suggests this decline might be permanent. At 32, Weegar is entering the phase where most defenders see their offensive contributions evaporate. His 128 shots on goal actually represent a slight increase from his per-game rate last season, but the conversion has disappeared entirely. When a player maintains his shot volume but can't find the net, it often signals a loss of shooting accuracy that doesn't return.
Per MoneyPuck's models, Weegar's expected goals sit at 4.38, meaning he's running 1.38 goals below what the quality of his chances suggests he should have scored. That's not just bad luck - that's structured failure to convert opportunities. His Goals vs Expected rating of -1.38 ranks among the worst for defensemen with significant ice time.
The recent game log tells an even grimmer story. Zero goals in his last 15 games, with just one assist to show for it. Against Minnesota on March 11, he managed zero shots in nearly 17 minutes of ice time. For a player Utah acquired to bolster their playoff push, that's the kind of invisible performance that raises questions about what they actually traded for.
The Case for a Bounce-Back
But dig deeper into those MoneyPuck numbers and a different picture emerges. Weegar's On-Ice xGF% of 48.0% isn't elite, but his On-Ice CF% of 52.0% suggests he's still winning the possession battle when he's on the ice. For a player supposedly in decline, those are the numbers of someone who remains effective at the most important part of his job: controlling play.
His 323 shot attempts rank among the highest for defensemen this season, indicating he's still actively involved in the offensive zone. The shots aren't going in, but he's getting them. That's the foundation for a rebound that could come quickly once the percentages normalize.
Consider the broader context of his career shooting percentages: 2.5% in 2022-23, then 9.6% the following year, then 4.3% last season. Weegar has always been a streaky shooter, and his career average of roughly 5.5% suggests his current 2.3% represents the bottom of a natural cycle, not a new baseline.
The defensive metrics paint an even clearer picture. His 149 blocked shots and 137 hits demonstrate the physical engagement that made him valuable in Florida and Calgary. At 22:58 average ice time, he's still trusted in all situations. Utah didn't acquire him hoping for 20 goals - they acquired him for exactly what he's providing: reliable minutes against top competition.
Steve Dangle's assessment of the trade captures Utah's thinking perfectly: Weegar's term and quality at a falling cap hit percentage represents excellent value for a team trying to build sustainable contention. As Dangle noted, there's "no shot, no chance" this was an overpay when you consider what defensemen of Weegar's caliber typically cost.
What the Advanced Numbers Reveal
The MoneyPuck data reveals a player whose underlying performance remains solid despite the surface-level struggles. His 4.38 expected goals suggest he should have roughly four goals by now instead of three - not a massive gap, but enough to indicate some regression to the mean is coming.
More importantly, his shot attempt numbers (323) and on-ice possession metrics (52.0% CF%) demonstrate that he's still driving play effectively. These are the stats that predict future success better than current goal totals, especially for defensemen whose primary value comes from moving the puck and controlling territory.
The high-danger chance conversion tells another story entirely. While his overall shooting has been abysmal, he's still generating quality opportunities from the blue line. The issue isn't chance creation - it's finish.
The Verdict: Regression Candidate with Upside
MacKenzie Weegar's current offensive production is unsustainable, but not in the way most people think. He's not going to score three goals all season, but he's also not going to return to his 20-goal peak from 2023-24. The truth sits somewhere in the middle: a defenseman whose shooting percentage will normalize toward his career average, producing somewhere between 8-12 goals if he stays healthy.
Utah didn't acquire him for offense anyway. They acquired him for exactly what he's providing: 23 minutes of reliable defense, strong possession numbers, and the occasional goal when the percentages cooperate. His 2.3% shooting percentage represents the floor, not the ceiling.
The broader lesson here is about evaluating defensemen in their 30s. Goal totals fluctuate wildly based on shooting luck, but the underlying defensive metrics - possession, shot attempts, ice time - tell you whether a player can still do the job. Weegar's numbers in those areas remain strong.
For Utah, this represents a classic buy-low opportunity on a proven commodity. The goals will come, even if they never reach his previous peaks. The defense is already there. In a playoff race, that's exactly what you want from a deadline acquisition: a player whose floor is higher than his current production suggests.