New York IslandersThe numbers don't lie, even when they're this good. Ilya Sorokin is posting a .913 save percentage through 40 games this season, ranking fifth among NHL goalies with 20-plus starts. His 2.51 goals-against average represents a significant bounce-back from last year's 2.71 mark. At 30 years old, the Russian netminder isn't just having a career renaissance - he's having the kind of season that makes you wonder if the New York Islanders finally have their franchise goaltender locked in for the long haul.
But here's the thing about goaltending excellence: it's fragile, it's fickle, and it rarely arrives when you need it most. Sorokin's current campaign looks spectacular compared to his previous two seasons, but dig deeper into the trajectory and you'll find a more complicated story about sustainability, workload management, and whether this version of Sorokin can carry the Islanders where they need to go.
The Bounce-Back Is Real
Let's establish what we're looking at here. Sorokin's .913 save percentage this season sits 6 points higher than his .907 mark from 2024-25 and 4 points better than his .909 from 2023-24. Those might seem like small margins, but in goaltending, they're massive. The difference between a .907 and .913 save percentage over 40 games is roughly 7-8 fewer goals allowed. In a league where games are decided by one goal constantly, that's the difference between playoff positioning and golfing in April.
More telling is his goals-against average dropping from 2.71 to 2.51. That's not just statistical noise - that's legitimate improvement backed by better positioning, better reads, and crucially, better health. Sorokin's recent game log tells the story of a goalie who's found his rhythm. His 96.8% save percentage against San Jose on March 8th was vintage Sorokin, the kind of performance that steals games and changes seasons.
The workload distribution also suggests the Islanders are managing him more intelligently. At 40 games played, he's on pace for roughly 61 starts, which would match his 2024-25 total exactly. That's the sweet spot for elite goaltenders - enough volume to stay sharp, not so much that they're running on fumes by March.
The 2022-23 Shadow
Here's where things get interesting, and where the sustainability questions start creeping in. Sorokin's current .913 save percentage is excellent, but it pales compared to his 2022-23 masterpiece: .924 save percentage with a 2.34 GAA across 62 games. That season was Vezina Trophy-caliber performance, the kind that makes you believe you're watching a generational talent.
The question that haunts this current season is simple: which Sorokin is real? The .924 version from two years ago, or the .907-.909 versions from the past two seasons? His current .913 sits right in the middle, which could mean he's found his true level, or it could mean we're watching regression to the mean play out in real time.
Looking at his recent game log, the inconsistency that plagued his previous two seasons is still lurking. The 85.7% save percentage against Los Angeles on March 6th - allowing 5 goals on 35 shots - is exactly the kind of performance that derailed his 2023-24 and 2024-25 campaigns. One elite game followed by a clunker, repeat cycle.
The Vezina Conversation
The media coverage suggests Sorokin is firmly in the Vezina Trophy conversation this season, with multiple outlets positioning him as a frontrunner. That recognition feels both earned and premature. His .913 save percentage and 2.51 GAA are undeniably elite numbers, and his 6 shutouts in 40 games demonstrate an ability to completely dominate when he's on.
But Vezina Trophy winners typically need more than just strong numbers - they need a narrative. Connor Hellebuyck won in 2020 by dragging Winnipeg to the playoffs almost single-handedly. Andrei Vasilevskiy's 2019 campaign was built on both elite stats and Tampa Bay's Presidents' Trophy season. Sorokin's case relies heavily on his statistical resurgence, but the Islanders' 37-23-5 record, while solid, doesn't scream "goalie carried this team."
The advanced metrics referenced in recent coverage apparently favor Sorokin over competitors, which makes sense. His save percentage relative to league average is impressive, and his ability to steal games - evidenced by wins like the 2-1 victory over San Jose - gives him the highlight-reel moments that Vezina voters remember.
The Sustainability Question
This is where honest analysis gets uncomfortable. Sorokin is 30 years old, which in goaltender years means he's entering his theoretical prime. Elite goalies can maintain excellence well into their thirties, so age isn't necessarily working against him. The concern is whether his body can handle the workload that Vezina-caliber seasons demand.
His 2022-23 season was brilliant, but it was followed by two years of statistical decline that coincided with increased games played. The pattern suggests that Sorokin might be one of those goalies who performs better with managed minutes rather than heavy usage. If that's the case, the Islanders face a difficult choice: ride him hard and risk burnout, or manage his load and potentially sacrifice team success.
The recent game log shows a goalie who's still capable of elite performances - that .958 save percentage against New Jersey on February 6th was dominant - but also one who can get lit up when his timing is off. The 4 goals allowed against Pittsburgh despite making 31 saves tells you he's still vulnerable to high-quality chances.
The Verdict
Sorokin is having a legitimately excellent season, and the Islanders are reaping the benefits of a goaltender playing at close to his ceiling. His .913 save percentage isn't a mirage - it's backed by better technical play and smarter game management from the coaching staff. The Vezina Trophy conversation is warranted, even if he's not the prohibitive favorite.
But sustainability remains the elephant in the room. This level of play is probably closer to Sorokin's true talent than the .907 versions of the past two years, but it's also probably not as sustainable as his 2022-23 peak. The smart money says he finishes the season somewhere between .910-.915, which would represent a successful campaign and position him well for future seasons.
The bigger picture for the Islanders is that they finally have clarity at the position. Sorokin at .913 is a goaltender you can build around, even if he's not quite the game-stealing force they hoped for when they committed to him long-term. Sometimes the best-case scenario isn't transcendent excellence - it's reliable, above-average performance when you need it most. This season, that's exactly what Sorokin is delivering.