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Toronto Maple Leafs’ Top Line Ripe for a Breakout

Despite their 3-1-0 record to start the 2020-21 campaign, the revamped Toronto Maple Leafs remain a work in progress. The top forward unit featuring Auston Matthews (4 points in 4 games), Mitch Marner (6 points in 4 games) and future Hall of Famer Joe Thornton (2 points in 4 games) is no exception. Even with 12 total points through four contests, they clearly have more to give. Thankfully, they may find a surge in production right around the corner.

The biggest reason for this impending breakout is the team’s biggest attraction: Matthews. After shedding 14 pounds in the offseason, the 6’3” franchise center looks…dynamic.

Viewers aren’t the only ones who’ve noticed the difference. With that extra boost in mobility, Matthews feels more confident when pushing the pace and attacking defenders wide. Against the Ottawa Senators on Saturday, he flies down the ice and performs a nifty inside-outside deke on Josh Brown to manufacture a solid opportunity:

In previous years, he would have felt the opposition breathing down his neck and either deferred to his linemates or pulled up to reset in the offensive zone. This fleeter version of Matthews is willing to grab the bull by the horns and generate chances himself. He hasn’t suddenly gotten Connor McDavid fast, but he’s shored up perhaps his lone area of weakness as a player. For the rest of the Scotia North Division, a man of his size and skill moving at that speed is a horrifying prospect.

Watch how all five Winnipeg Jets have their eyes glued to Matthews as he takes off down the left wing on Monday night:

Their focus is placed squarely on Toronto’s world-class sniper because that was the book on defending him: Don’t let him shoot. But by gaining a half-step, Matthews can now dance around and rearrange the opposition’s defensive posture. This opens up a wealth of attacking possibilities. In this case, Justin Holl benefits from a massive passing lane to unleash a one-timer on Connor Hellebuyck. Marner is then free to tap the loose puck into a gaping net for the game-winner.

The scariest bit? Matthews hasn’t found his scoring touch yet. Although he’s shattering his career highs in individual shot attempts, scoring chances and high-danger chances per 60 minutes, the natural finisher is firing at a putrid 4.8 percent at the moment. Prior to this season, he had shot 15.7 percent across four campaigns.

Yeah, it’s fair to expect the other shoe to drop sooner rather than later.

Meanwhile, Marner has brushed off a draining year over the fall. The playmaking wizard is back to his daring—sometimes to his own detriment—and dazzling self. He can thread the needle or draw in defenders to gift his linemates grade-A chances in the blink of an eye. One small cut inside, one tweak to the passing angle, and he can carve you up before you know it:

Sure, there are risks involved with his style of play, but given just how many quality looks he generates, you live with the rough patches.

Following a season in which Marner couldn’t shake the shadow of bitter contract negotiations, it appears his enthusiasm and energy level have been restored—and the top line is that much stronger as a result.

Beyond the players’ improved speed and mental state, the first line has also introduced a grizzled new member to the fold. Thornton’s arrival represents a significant change from the wrecking ball that is Zach Hyman. The 41-year-old certainly can’t skate with his predecessor, but at 6’4” and 220 pounds, he understands how to leverage his reach and puck skills in the trenches. For all of Hyman’s work rate—and it is indeed boundless—plays often died on his stick because he couldn’t process the game at a quick enough rate. His feet moved faster than he could think.

Thornton offers the opposite scenario: While keeping up with his linemates physically is a struggle, his vision and savvy allow him to facilitate for Matthews and Marner nevertheless. He consistently takes great angles on the forecheck, which sets the table for his linemates to wreak havoc on the opposition.

Look at how the trio conjures something out of nothing due to this spike in hockey IQ:

It isn’t flashy. It’s simple, smart hockey. They’re funneling opponents into uncomfortable positions and pouncing on the ensuing turnovers.

Another noteworthy dimension is Thornton’s willingness to fire the puck. The lifelong playmaker has had to shift his role because it would be far too easy for defenses to stop Matthews if he was the unit’s only potential shooting threat. He’s currently averaging about twice as many scoring chances and high-danger opportunities as he registered a season ago. Thornton doesn’t exactly possess a rocket, but just keeping opponents honest is enough:

Granted, Thornton’s age prevents him from taking every single shift alongside his younger linemates, but 16 minutes per night is still plenty. And in their time together, Matthews, Marner and Thornton have dominated the opposition: 73.3 CF%, 81.6 SCF%, 100.0 HDCF%. They’ve owned 75.5 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5. That’s absurd.

Once the gap between actual and expected goals is bridged—Matthews has actually outscored the expected totals throughout his career on account of his marksmanship—this line’s production should skyrocket. Head coach Sheldon Keefe is giving his young guns every opportunity to excel too. Both Matthews and Marner are averaging over 23 minutes of ice time per game. That’s easily the highest usage either forward has ever logged.

As it stands, they’re a hair away from finding their stride…and they’re still producing very well. How much longer do you think they’ll keep missing on chances like these?

It feels like a mere matter of time until the close calls are converted into goals, including on the power play.

With John Tavares (6 points in 4 games) and William Nylander (5 points in 4 games) already clicking on the second line, the Leafs’ new top six is slowly but surely taking shape into something special.

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