Ottawa Senators’ Immediate Future Could Be Bleak 

The Ottawa Senators aren’t having much luck on the scoreboard this season and the NHL club’s ability to attract fans is almost just as bad. The team occupied the league’s basement at the All-Star break and placed second-worst when it came to attendance. The biggest problem facing the franchise and its fans at the moment is realizing things may get quite a bit worse before they get any better.

The most important day in the club’s immediate future is going to be Feb. 25^Th, which is the NHL’s trade deadline. This is the day the Senators are going to have to trade cornerstone players Mark Stone and Matt Duchene if it looks like they have no interest in re-signing with the team. The 28-year-old Duchene and 26-year-old Stone are both scheduled to become unrestricted free agents on July 1^st . And with Erik Karlsson heading to San Jose last September these are now Ottawa’s best players and top two scorers.

General manager Pierre Dorion has reportedly made an eight-year contract offer to Duchene for a total of $64 million, but could be willing to add a bit more to the pot. As for Stone, he signed a year-long deal for $7.35-million this season after coming close to agreeing on a long-term deal. Since Stone and Dorion almost worked things out last year, there’s a good chance the two will come to terms on a new multi-year contract, possibly for eight seasons. If that happens, fans should expect Stone to also be named the squad’s next captain.

Duchene’s odds of remaining in Ottawa aren’t as high since he could get a better offer in the free agency frenzy and likely from a contending team to boot. Either way, if Stone and/or Duchene aren’t signed, sealed and delivered by Feb. 25^th or haven’t indicated they want to stay, look for them to be traded.

There’s no way the Senators can afford to lose one or both of their top scorers for nothing as the club tries to rebuild. If both ink new deals then Dorion will attempt to build a solid roster around them. Ottawa’s preference is to keep both players, but they should receive some useful assets in return if either of them are traded. In the meantime, Dorion is preparing for every possible scenario regarding the pair.

The Senators also have other things to worry about as 26-year-old Ryan Dzingel is also a pending free agent and he’s arguably the team’s third-best forward. In addition, Dorion traded his first-round draft choice in 2019 to the Colorado Avalanche when they acquired Duchene and this could turn out to be the first-overall pick. Therefore, they won’t be able to find a quick-fix solution on draft day in June.

This Ottawa team certainly isn’t tanking though as there’s no incentive to do so without its first-round draft choice, so it really is as bad as the standings suggest.

In a worst-case scenario, the Senators will have to trade their top three forwards at the deadline or risk losing them for nothing. To make matters even more miserable, the attendance for their final home game before the All-Star break was just 12,236. It appears there aren’t many fans interested in paying top dollar to watch a losing team.

As far as home attendance is concerned, Ottawa is ranked 27^th in the 31-team league with an average crowd of 14,424 per game. This means the club is selling just 75.3 per cent of available tickets to rank 28^th in the league. They fare better on the road with an average crowd of 17,382 to tank 13^th with 95.1 per cent of seats sold to tie for 14^th place with the Vegas Golden Knights. Overall, Ottawa ranks 26^th in attendance at 15,844 and 30^th in available tickets sold at 84.6 per cent.

Perhaps home fans have given up on the team after seeing its best players hit the road for one reason or another over the years such as Karlsson, Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson, Marian Hossa and Zdeno Chara. Another reason for the low attendance is generally blamed on the location of the home rink. Senators’ fans need to make a 45-to-60-minute trek to Kanata to watch their team play. Most of them do so via public transportation, but buses also get stuck in traffic jams.

Senators’ owner Eugene Melnyk realizes the team needs a rink in the downtown core and is hoping it becomes reality. He’s hoping to base the franchise in the LeBreton Flats area of the city, but is looking for public money to help fund his plan. That’s not likely to happen so he’s going to have to depend on outside help. The money may come from private sources with the Senators paying rent at a new rink or Melnyk may eventually decide to sell the franchise or at least a part of it.

Moving the team downtown should see a boost in attendance and help Melnyk pay off some of his growing debt. However, with the NHL using a salary-cap system it’s not really going to allow the team to lure top free agents to Ottawa. The pay scale will remain the same regardless of how much increased income is realized. Just what exactly will happen with the Senators’ current arena is also unclear at the moment.

If the on-ice product improves Ottawa’s attendance may climb, but that’s not guaranteed either. The rink was a few thousand fans under capacity the last time they made the playoffs in 2016/17 even though they reached the conference final. One thing’s for certain though, attendance definitely won’t get better if the squad doesn’t start picking up points.

The best bet for the Senators to turn things around next season is if Duchene, Stone and Dzingel are all re-signed. But as critics point out, the trio is with the team now and it’s still mired in 31^st place.