New York Islanders May Be Running Out of Steam

Even though the New York Islanders have been outgunned for most of the 2018-19 campaign, they’ve managed to consistently rack up wins — so many wins, in fact, that they occupy third place in the Metropolitan Division despite low preseason expectations. The league’s stingiest defense and an opportunistic offense have allowed them to defy the odds.

But without much scoring talent to count on, the question now is how long they can keep up this high-wire act.

A few chinks in the armor have already surfaced. Following the trade deadline, which is when the intensity ramps up and the playoff picture takes shape, the Islanders are 8-8-0 and averaging just 2.06 goals per game. This drought was especially pronounced over the past seven days, as the club was shut out by three teams in the Eastern Conference playoff race (Boston, Montreal, Columbus). A solid defense and a resurgent Robin Lehner (2.17 GAA, 92.8 SV%) can’t overcome such poor run support.

Unfortunately, there’s only so much head coach Barry Trotz can do about this dry spell. That might sound strange given the magic he’s displayed this year (44-26-7 record), but every roster has its limitations.

In this case, there’s a lack of high-end forwards and defensemen. Former bench boss Doug Weight tried to outscore his problems through freewheeling hockey. We all know how that turned out. Trotz has tipped the scale to the opposite side and emphasized the need to tighten things up. While it’s hard to argue with that approach, the blueliners at his disposal aren’t great. Nick Leddy isn’t always reliable in his end, Thomas Hickey is a second-pairing defenseman, 35-year-old Johnny Boychuk has slowed down and Scott Mayfield, Ryan Pulock, Devon Toews and Adam Pelech remain works in progress.

As such, Trotz has focused on getting the forwards to buy into the program. For the most part, they have. There has certainly been a concerted effort to polish their play and minimize the amount of Grade A opportunities they concede. On the season, they control 47.5% of the shot attempts (27^th), 48.9% of the scoring chances (18^th) and 52.1% of the high-danger shot attempts (12^th) at 5-on-5. That quality-over-quantity scheme is quite similar to the title-winning philosophy Trotz implemented in Washington.

However, the Islanders are neither as steady nor as potent as last year’s Capitals. This playing style doesn’t come as easily to them. They often appear so concerned with keeping the opposition’s shots to the outside that they spend entire games doing just that. Their tireless commitment to maintaining a strong defensive posture doesn’t leave much in the tank for the attack, which has created a dip in their production across the board.

After ranking seventh in goals per game last season (3.18), they’re down to 22^nd (2.70). It was a necessary evil to shore up the defense, but now that the club’s on-ice shooting percentage is normalizing (down from 10.5 in late November to 8.6), its offensive struggles are becoming evident.

The most notable adjustment has come for 2017-18 Calder Trophy winner Mathew Barzal (59 points in 77 games). The electrifying young center is being asked to play winning hockey, which means he can no longer fly the zone or cheat for offense. Moreover, with John Tavares returning home to Toronto, the 21-year-old now has to face the opposition’s best every night. He’s still faring quite well in shot and chance shares (51.5 CF%, 52.3 SCF%, 53.5 HDCF%), but the spike in competition has lowered his GF% to 50.0.

This added responsibility across all three zones is a lot to handle, and it’s definitely taken its toll: He’s on pace for about 20 fewer points this season. As a pass-first player, he is finding it much more difficult to slice open defenses under Trotz. There are fewer potential targets on the rush and the club is spending considerably less time on offense altogether.

Ultimately, you have to admire his willingness to play the right way, but you also can’t ignore his decreased impact.

Elsewhere, captain Anders Lee (47 points in 77 games) may not hit 30 goals after potting 40 a season ago. He had developed a reputation as a prolific scorer over the past couple of years, but Weight and Jack Capuano’s pond hockey are nowhere in sight. Jordan Eberle (32 points in 73 games), who had never played a 200-foot game in his career, is having trouble balancing defense and offense too. His scoring rate has plummeted from 0.73 PPG in 2017-18 to 0.44 PPG.

New York is still waiting on first-round picks Anthony Beauvillier (24 points in 76 games), Michael Dal Colle (5 points in 24 games) and Josh Ho-Sang (2 points in 10 games) to develop into solid contributors — well, maybe not Ho-Sang. The upside is there, but these kids can’t seem to tap into it just yet.

As for role players Andrew Ladd (11 points in 26 games) and Leo Komarov (24 points in 77 games)…let’s just say giving up roughly 55% of the scoring chances during their shifts prevents them from producing much of anything positive. Veteran forward Valtteri Filppula (29 points in 71 games) is out for another three weeks with an upper-body injury. When he has played, he hasn’t controlled much of the game either (44.1 CF%, 43.6 SCF%, 46.1 HDCF%).

Outside of all-world grinder Casey Cizikas (30 points in 68 games) and consistent big man Brock Nelson (50 points in 77 games), pretty much every Islanders forward is suffering through a down year.

And this shouldn’t come as a shock.

Buckling down defensively and creating offense on top of that is really, really hard — especially when you don’t have a wealth of world-class talent to send over the boards. Tampa Bay, Winnipeg, Pittsburgh and Toronto may not dictate the play from start to finish, but they have the skill to hurt you in the blink of an eye. Beyond Barzal, the Islanders don’t exactly strike fear in anyone’s heart.

If we’re taking the long view, sacrificing some offense for an improved defense was absolutely the right move. They wouldn’t even hold a playoff berth otherwise. Will that structure prove to be enough down the stretch, though?

As it stands, the Islanders’ attack is moving in the wrong direction at the worst possible time.