New-Look San Jose Sharks Taking Shape

The hockey world is reactionary. After a slow start, prospects are busts and teams with a solid core should just blow it up. These narratives are rehashed every season, but it can be hard to block out the noise.

Despite a rocky adjustment period, the San Jose Sharks (18-11-5) have wisely stayed the course. They’ve won six of their last seven contests and hold the third seed in the Pacific Division. Anyone who has actually tuned into the games could see this coming from a mile away. Their personnel is strong, and adding Erik Karlsson to a blue line that already featured roving wild man Brent Burns is downright scary for opponents.

The numbers are quite impressive: Through 34 games, the Sharks are controlling 55.0% of the shot attempts (2^nd) and 54.6% of the scoring chances (4^th) at 5-on-5. However, they only own 49.3% of the goals scored (17^th). That mostly boils down to poor goaltending, as starter Martin Jones has posted a 2.93 GAA and 89.7 SV% in 24 games. By comparison, backup Aaron Dell has performed better (2.68 GAA, 90.6 SV%) in his 11 contests. Overall, San Jose’s on-ice save percentage ranks 30^th in the NHL.

Winning games with a shaky goaltender isn’t easy, so Jones will certainly have to pull his weight if the Sharks hope to make a splash this year. As it stands, he appears to have lost his way. Every shot is a struggle. He isn’t tracking the puck well behind the net either, which is leading to some weak goals.

Beyond the crease, though, the Sharks are rolling. Much of their success is due to the twin terrors on the back end.

At the beginning of the season, Karlsson (22 points in 34 games) was paired with Marc-Edouard Vlasic. On paper, it was a dream partnership. On the ice, it was a disastrous combination that resulted in a 35.3 GF%. They drove the play, but the blunders were so glaring and frequent that they could not be tolerated. Karlsson is a gambler by nature, so he wasn’t always in great position. Vlasic, for his part, was often caught in no man’s land as he tried to develop a read on his unpredictable partner.

Vlasic’s miscues eventually forced Karlsson to hesitate rather than pull the trigger, and a safe Karlsson is an ineffective Karlsson.

Now with stay-at-home defenseman Dillon, the dynamic Swede can race up and down the ice knowing that his pairmate is there to cover for him — or at least buy enough time for reinforcements to arrive.

This comfort level has generated incredible results: 60.8 CF%, 59.4 SCF%, 60.6 GF%. Not only are the Sharks completely tilting the ice toward the opposition’s zone when this duo is together, they’re being rewarded for it on the scoreboard too. Karlsson may never regain the form he had prior to a serious Achilles injury in 2013, but he can still bring a game-breaking element to the table. When he’s on, opponents get caught puck-watching as he dances around the ice, opening up a myriad of passing lanes to exploit.

Oh, and then there’s Burns.

The 2017 Norris Trophy winner is a 6’5”, 230-pound monster with no conscience — for better or worse…but mostly better. He has 34 points in 34 games, and though his goal-scoring numbers are down from a couple of years ago, his impact remains sky-high. His willingness to join the play when others wouldn’t dare catches the opposition off-guard, turning any semblance of structure into a scramble drill.

During his shifts, the Sharks control 56.5% of the shot attempts and 54.5% of the scoring chances. When you combine that performance with the dominance of the Karlsson-Dillon pairing, you get a back end that can pour on the pressure at will. As two of the four most prolific shot-takers among NHL defensemen, Karlsson and Burns are great at getting their bids through traffic, creating tip and rebound opportunities in addition to putting opponents on their heels.

San Jose is not the best defensive team in the NHL. However, its defensemen move the puck more effectively than any blue line in the league.

No one has benefited from this more than 22-year-old winger Timo Meier. In his third year, the 2015 first-round pick is fulfilling his promise as a top-end power forward. He has 18 goals in 31 games and sports the highest points-per-game average on the team (1.06). With his strength on the puck and shooting ability, he presents a threat on both the rush and the cycle.

His team-high on-ice shooting percentage (12.0) is likely to regress a bit, but that conversion rate isn’t just a matter of dumb luck. Karlsson and Burns’ ability to make accurate passes and slice through opposing defenses grants the forwards higher-quality looks, so it follows that shooting percentages would enjoy a boost in kind.

This engagement level from the blue line has helped the entire team produce by committee. The Sharks’ leading scorer, Logan Couture (34 points in 34 games), ranks 38^th in the league, but there’s no lack of firepower on the roster. Captain Joe Pavelski (27 points in 34 games) and Evander Kane (20 points in 34 games) can provide instant offense. Meanwhile, Tomas Hertl (25 points in 29 games) has emerged as a leader up front. The Sharks own 57.1% of the scoring chances during his shifts, as the 25-year-old leverages his frame (6’2”, 215 lbs) and soft hands to create chaos in tight.

Beyond the front line, 39-year-old Joe Thornton (14 points in 25 games) has clearly slowed down with age and injury troubles, but he’s maintained a superb possession game (59.3 CF%, 55.9 SCF%). Kevin Labanc (22 points in 34 games) offers a dose of complementary offense and power-play bite, whereas two-way winger Joonas Donskoi (14 points in 34 games) can do a little bit of everything in service of his club.

This potent squad has achieved much greater balance than in recent years.

A deep forward core and deadly pair of offensive defensemen have yielded the ninth-best attack and seventh-best power play in the league. The team can outscore its issues on most nights, and it’s just getting started too. Those rankings should only continue to improve as familiarity within the group increases.

The 2018-19 Sharks are living by the old adage that good things come to those who wait. If Jones can hold up his end of the bargain, a championship may even lie within their grasp.