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Brady Tkachuk Making Early Case for the Calder Trophy

Brady Tkachuk. (Graham Hughes/CP/AP)

Heading into the 2018-19 season, expectations for the Ottawa Senators had hit rock bottom. Goal-scoring winger Mike Hoffman and franchise defenseman Erik Karlsson, two integral parts of the team’s offensive potency, were traded away for meager returns in the offseason. Meanwhile, owner Eugene Melnyk remains at the helm of a dysfunctional management group.

Suffice to say the outlook wasn’t bright.

The early results haven’t shocked anyone either. Through 26 games, the Sens sit three points up on last place in the Eastern Conference…and they’ve played two or more games than every team below them. They’re performing woefully by most metrics and don’t have the goaltending required to mitigate their issues.

As with most struggling clubs, fans can at least take solace in the youth movement. Thomas Chabot has kicked off a remarkable sophomore campaign by leading the entire NHL in scoring from the blue line (29 points). Perhaps Karlsson’s brand of eye-popping, high-event hockey hasn’t disappeared after all.

Chabot’s numbers are so spectacular, in fact, that Ottawa’s fourth overall pick in 2018 has flown somewhat under the radar.

Many scoffed at the Sens’ decision to select Brady Tkachuk that high, but he’s served them a healthy bowl of crow as he makes a compelling early case for the Calder Trophy. He has nine goals and 16 points in 15 games. Moreover, the team is astonishingly better when he’s on the ice than when he’s off it. That sort of impact is rare for a 19-year-old — let alone a 19-year-old winger.

Don’t get it twisted: Tkachuk isn’t out there controlling the flow of games like a center or top-pairing defenseman. But while operating within the confines of his position, he’s been nothing short of brilliant.

According to Natural Stat Trick, Ottawa scores 63.6% of the goals when Tkachuk takes the ice at 5-on-5. Some could point to an unsustainable PDO (104.5), and they might have an argument if it weren’t for the fact that the Sens control 54.1% of shot attempts and 56.5% of scoring chances during the rookie’s shifts. The team’s overall numbers indicate that Tkachuk is very much the exception to the rule: Ottawa ranks dead last in the league in CF% and 29th in SCF%.

In short, his team-relative stats are staggering. When he’s on the ice, Ottawa actually carries the play. When it’s everyone else’s turn, the opposition skates circles around them.

The Sens are indeed deeply flawed. They don’t move the puck up the ice particularly well, they aren’t stingy on defense and they seldom play as a cohesive five-man unit. Despite these problems, they come out on top during Tkachuk’s ice time because he dominates the trenches as a true power forward. He isn’t simply a wrecking ball who can shoot. No, he understands how to leverage his 6’3” frame. He shields opponents from the puck down low and attacks the dirty areas with reckless abandon.

In that sense, he’s more like his father (Keith) than his brother (Matthew, Calgary’s sixth overall pick in 2016). His older brother is a playmaking pest. He thrives on getting under the other team’s skin and displays terrific hockey sense with the puck. Brady isn’t quite as crafty. He doesn’t mind irritating his opponents either, but his game is built on north-south simplicity. He’s a better skater than Matthew, gets downhill in a hurry and is a nightmare to defend around the crease.

On a team that is so regularly outplayed, boasting that net-front stalwart is huge. He seemingly always gets to loose pucks first, so even an innocuous shot from the point can break a game wide open. He hovers around the point of attack ready to pounce, looking for a deflection, digging for a rebound or resetting the play to extend possessions in the offensive zone.

It isn’t pretty, but his game is undeniably effective.

Even with his contributions, Tkachuk won’t magically turn the Sens into a competitive team. A few more pieces must fall into place first. As it relates to the Calder Trophy, however, history suggests that doesn’t matter in the slightest: Five of the last eight recipients have belonged to non-playoff clubs.

As long as Tkachuk carries his level of play throughout the season, voters may not care that his team is awful.

At the moment, Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson (22 points in 22 games) and 2018 first overall pick Rasmus Dahlin (14 points in 26 games) are the other leading candidates. Sens teammate Colin White (16 points in 25 games) may sneak into the mix too. Last season’s second overall pick, Andrei Svechnikov, has dominated bottom-six competition (59.6 CF%, 63.0 SCF%), but that hasn’t translated to big-time production yet (11 points in 24 games). Despite polished outings and a larger role than anticipated, Dallas Stars blueliner Miro Heiskanen won’t get a nod without a gaudy stat line.

Among the front-runners, Pettersson has slowed down after a scorching-hot start. Brock Boeser’s injury surely played a part in that dip, but the second-year sniper has since returned. It will be interesting to see whether the rookie can produce with teams now game-planning to smother him. At any rate, his release and vision are superb.

Dahlin struggled early but is beginning to demonstrate poise beyond his years. His numbers and Buffalo’s recent climb toward the top of the Eastern Conference make him a serious contender. It’s hard to tell whether the Sabres are the real deal, though. They don’t govern enough of the play and are enjoying quite a high 5-on-5 save percentage. Those aren’t usually signs of repeatable success.

If Tkachuk can end the season with 60-plus points while maintaining his strong underlying stats, he has a legitimate shot at the Calder Trophy.

Obviously, NHL hockey is about winning a different bit of hardware, but the Sens are young and should thus relish the baby steps. A standout individual campaign amid collective growing pains is still worth getting excited about. For a team that is craving a silver lining, Tkachuk fits the bill and then some.

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